Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the Matchweek 19 fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Pereira maintain perfect start at Wolves?
- Will Newcastle add to Amorim's woes?
- Is this period Liverpool's toughest yet?
- Can Man City capitalise on leaky Leicester?
- Will Duran absence be perfect chance for Watkins?
- Is Chelsea's title challenge in jeopardy?
- Can Forest go second for first time in 30 years?
- Will Palace seize chance to improve home record?
- Was fixture list behind Brentford’s home record?
- Can Fulham v Bournemouth shape race for Europe?
Can Pereira maintain perfect start at Wolves?
Wolverhampton Wanderers are on the up, Tottenham Hotspur are not. Wolves will feel refreshed, Spurs more deflated.
That huge disparity in momentum could be the difference at the end of this busy winter run.
No team have lost more Premier League matches since the start of December than Spurs, who have conceded 10 goals in their last two Premier League home matches.
They are 12th in the table with one win in five, and following Djed Spence’s suspension and doubts over Radu Dragusin after an injury at Nottingham Forest, Ange Postecoglou's side are down to the bare bones.
In sharp contrast Wolves are flying under new head coach Vitor Pereira, who could become their first manager to win his opening three top-flight matches in charge of the club.
If that wasn’t concerning enough for the home fans, Wolves have won each of their last three Premier League meetings with Spurs, while Pereira’s defensive set-up in north London should be just the right approach.
Postecoglou's side, already conceding at an alarming rate in the middle of a defensive injury crisis, are repeatedly getting caught on the break against opponents willing to sit back and counter.
Spurs had 70.4 per cent possession in their loss at Forest, making it five defeats from the seven matches in which they’ve held more than 65 per cent of the ball.
All the signs point to a difficult day for Postecoglou and Co.
Will Newcastle add to Amorim's woes?
It’s a similar story at Old Trafford, where the momentum is with a resurgent away side.
Ruben Amorim is the first Manchester United head coach to lose as many as five of his first 10 matches in charge of the club in all competitions since Walter Crickmer in January 1932, who lost six of his 10 first games.
Defeat on Sunday wouldn't bear thinking about, yet Newcastle United are in form after three consecutive victories over the festive period (by an aggregate score of 11-0) lifted them all the way up to fifth.
Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes have completely rewritten the story of Newcastle’s season, their midfield foundation helping Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak find their best form through December.
Things could scarcely feel more different for Man Utd, who have lost each of their last two at Old Trafford and are hoping to avoid making it three in a row for the first time since February 1979.
With energy levels falling going into the final furlong of this Christmas period, momentum and confidence is so important.
The hosts are huffing and puffing their way through fixtures. The visitors have scored within the opening two minutes in each of their last two matches.
Is this period Liverpool's toughest yet?
There is a very real possibility that Liverpool will walk to the title in the spring, but for that to happen they must fight their way through a subtly tricky period coming up.
West Ham (A), Man Utd (H), Forest (A) and Brentford (A) is a sequence full of banana skins. The first of those four is the most deceptive.
Throughout the season Liverpool have been fortunate to face teams at their lowest ebb, but that is not the case on Sunday.
Julen Lopetegui’s side are unbeaten in four Premier League matches, winning two of those, a run that has relieved pressure on the head coach and put West Ham within just five points of the European spots.
Meanwhile Liverpool have conceded 10 goals in their last four Premier League matches on the road.
Liverpool's last four away matches
They are looking comfortable at the top, but things could change quickly. Dropped points at the London Stadium would pile pressure on to the Man Utd match next week and give hope to an Arsenal side closer to the summit than you might think.
After Sunday’s encounter Liverpool play the northwest derby followed by two of the toughest away matches of the season, while just a three-points swing at the top would put Arsenal right back in it.
It’s vital that Liverpool get the job done at West Ham.
Can Man City capitalise on leaky Leicester?
Manchester City have won only one of their last nine Premier League matches and have conceded 26 goals in all competitions since the start of November, a record only surpassed in Europe’s top five divisions by German side Heidenheim, with 28 goals conceded.
At a time like this you need a kind fixture to rediscover the old patterns and remember what it feels like to win.
For Man City that game could be Salford City in the FA Cup in a fortnight – or it could be Sunday’s trip to Leicester City, Pep Guardiola’s 500th match in charge at the club.
Leicester are the only side who have lost their last three Premier League matches.
In even better news for Man City fans, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side lost those three by an aggregate score of 10-1, while only Ipswich Town (37.5) and Southampton (40.7) have conceded a higher Expected Goals (xG) than the 27.1 of Leicester.
Throughout their poor form Man City haven’t had a problem scoring goals, and even in a struggling title defence they have managed to beat the two promoted clubs (1-0 v Ipswich and 4-1 v Southampton).
Here is a glorious opportunity, then, for Guardiola to stop the rot.
Will Duran absence be perfect chance for Watkins?
Jhon Duran’s red card was good news for one person connected with Aston Villa.
Ollie Watkins hasn’t been named in Villa’s starting XI for four consecutive league matches, the longest sequence since he joined the club in 2020.
Duran had muscled his way into the team, but his three-match suspension hands Watkins the chance to rediscover his goalscoring touch and remind Unai Emery why he was an automatic choice until recently.
Watkins could not have asked for a better match in which to do it.
His six Premier League goals against Brighton & Hove Albion are more than against any other opponent and includes a hat-trick in a 6-1 home win last season. Brighton have won only one of their last 14 trips to Villa Park (D3 L10).
Watkins' hat-trick v Brighton
What’s more, Brighton are without a win in six Premier League matches and Emery’s side are undefeated at Villa Park since August.
The stats point to Brighton losing at Villa for the fourth time in a row. If that happens, chances are Watkins will have ended his five-match goalless run.
Is Chelsea's title challenge in jeopardy?
Just one point won from the last six available means that by the time Chelsea get under way at Portman Road on Monday they could be fourth in the Premier League table.
Enzo Maresca has long insisted that his team are not ready for a title challenge. Pundits are starting to believe him.
Chelsea were flat in defeat to Fulham on Boxing Day, for the first time this season looking a little too reliant on the brilliance of Cole Palmer.
Ipswich are the only team yet to win at home and their four points are the joint-worst home record in the division alongside Southampton, yet those numbers don’t tell the full story.
Kieran McKenna’s side always look competitive and scrap hard against the bigger teams, beating Spurs away and drawing at home to both Villa and Man Utd.
If they catch Chelsea on another off-day, Ipswich can deny the visitors points - and put Maresca’s side in danger of dropping out of the title race altogether.
The gap is already seven points to Liverpool, who have a match in hand. Chelsea cannot afford to lose any more ground.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
17 | +23 | 42 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
18 | +19 | 36 |
| 3 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
18 | +17 | 35 |
| 4 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
18 | +5 | 34 |
Can Forest go second for first time in 30 years?
Things keep getting better and better for Forest fans. Even the most pessimistic among them might dare to dream should their team win at Goodison Park on Sunday.
A fifth consecutive Premier League victory (for the first time since April 1995) would, temporarily at least, lift Forest into second place.
They haven’t been that high since October 1994, going on to finish that season in third place, 12 points behind champions Blackburn Rovers.
There are generations of Forest fans who don’t know this feeling; who have never seen the team so high in the table.
They have every right to start getting carried away - especially if they win at Everton to set up a moonshot at a fairytale 2025.
Victory at Goodison Park would mean just one more win (away at Wolves) would be needed to go into their 14 January showdown at home to Liverpool a minimum of five points behind the leaders.
There is a world in which Forest win their next three in a row, Liverpool lose at home to Man Utd, and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are top of the league in mid-January.
Will Palace seize chance to improve home record?
This fixture has become trickier since Russell Martin departed Southampton, but nevertheless for a team in Crystal Palace’s unenviable position a home match against the Premier League’s bottom club is as good a chance as they’ll get for a reset.
Oliver Glasner’s side have only won one league match at Selhurst Park this season, beating Spurs 1-0 in late October, but they are due a win after gradually improving their form over Christmas.
Palace have lost just one of their last seven Premier League matches (W2 D4) and have not been beaten by a team in the bottom half of the table since Everton’s 2-1 win at Goodison Park in late September.
Southampton, though more defensively secure post-Martin, have failed to score a goal in 221 minutes of Premier League football.
Palace must seize this opportunity.
Was fixture list behind Brentford’s home record?
At first glance, a Bukayo Saka-less Arsenal are in danger of dropping points against Thomas Frank’s stubborn Brentford, who boast the joint-best home record in the Premier League (22 points).
But a 2-0 home defeat to Forest last week didn’t just end Brentford’s unbeaten season at the Gtech Community Stadium, it also hinted that the fixture list was behind Brentford’s good record.
In their 10 remaining home matches, Brentford still have to play all of the "big six" plus Fulham, Brighton, Villa and Everton.
Last season they took five points from those 10 fixtures.
That’s a good sign for Arsenal, although they only won 1-0 at Brentford in November 2023 courtesy of a 89th-minute goal from Kai Havertz - assisted by Saka.
Can Fulham v Bournemouth shape race for Europe?
There just isn’t room at the top for Fulham and AFC Bournemouth.
There are potentially eight European places up for grabs, but for Fulham and Bournemouth to both sneak into the top eight they would need to finish above Man Utd, Spurs, and one of Villa or Man City.
The chances of that aren’t high, which makes their head-to-head at Craven Cottage an important six-pointer in the battle for Europe.
Currently separated by only one point, it seems unlikely much will divide these two come May, meaning the 12-point swing in their meetings will be decisive.
It’s a coin toss between them.
