Can Nottingham Forest emulate Leicester’s fairytale title win?

Adrian Clarke looks at whether Nottingham Forest can sustain their superb form and win the Premier League title just as Leicester City did back in 2015/16.

Team analysis: Nottingham Forest

Winning six matches in a row, keeping clean sheets in each of their last four fixtures, Nottingham Forest are currently the division’s most in-form side.

Nuno Espirito Santo has settled on a formula that suits his players, and their outstanding brand of clinical, counter-attacking football is proving to be incredibly successful.

The form table tells its own story.

Across the last eight matches no one else can match Nottingham Forest’s performance levels, and this begs an obvious question…

Can Forest emulate Leicester City and win the Premier League title?

Premier League table last eight matches

Leicester’s story

Losing just three times all season, Leicester defied pre-season odds of 5000-1 to produce one of the greatest fairytales in sporting history to capture the title in 2015/16.

Having flirted with relegation the season before, eventually finishing 14th on 41 points, nobody could have foreseen the astonishing progress they made under Claudio Ranieri.

Making the most of a season where the traditional big six struggled, they became champions with 81 points, 10 points clear of Arsenal in second.

Leicester City 2015/16

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Leicester LEI	38	+32	81
2	Arsenal ARS	38	+29	71
3	Spurs TOT	38	+34	70
4	Man City MCI	38	+30	66

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Comparisons with Leicester

If Nottingham Forest are to replicate that remarkable achievement, they would have to do so from even further back than Leicester.

Last season they ended the campaign in 17th position with just 32 points; a tally which would have been 36 points had they not received a four-point penalty deduction.

They are already four points better off than that, with 18 matches still left to play.

From a tactical point of view there are a several standout traits which are reminiscent of that phenomenal Foxes side.

The clearest comparison is that both are low possession sides, set up to counter attack at speed.

How the two sides compare

There are also obvious similarities with their respective No 9s.

Chris Wood and Jamie Vardy both made their names outside of the Premier League before shining on the big stage.

They are also both excellent at finishing off direct attacks, counters, turnovers and breakaways, making them perfectly suited to the style of their teams.

Currently on 12 Premier League goals, Wood is on course to get close to the 24 Vardy scored in the competition during that scarcely believable 2015/16 campaign.

Interestingly, the New Zealander has a better conversion rate at this stage, and is scoring goals at an almost identical rate to Vardy.

How the two strikers compare

Defensive stability is another quality these two underdogs share.

Nottingham Forest’s centre-back pairing of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo is consistently excellent at soaking up pressure, and the same can be said of Wes Morgan and Robert Huth from nine years ago.

The bedrock of sides that adopt a solid 4-4-2 shape out of possession, they are comparable duos.

Both teams also have/had a consistent and settled back four in place.

How the two sides rank defensively 

The data suggests that Nuno’s pragmatic, well organised tactical approach is just as effective as Ranieri’s with Leicester in 2015/16.

Boasting more clean sheets than anyone else, Nottingham Forest are yet to make an individual error that has led to a goal conceded.

It happened just once when the Foxes became champions.

As it stands, after 20 rounds of fixtures, Forest have 40 points, the exact same figure Ranieri’s Leicester had at this stage.

What next?

Nottingham Forest are the only team to beat the leaders Liverpool so far this season and they meet next at the City Ground on Tuesday 14 January.

It is the first in a difficult run of eight matches that will see Nuno’s men do battle against seven teams who are currently sat in the top half of the table.

Nott'm Forest's next eight PL matches

If they can navigate this testing schedule and remain inside the top four, Forest will have a wonderful opportunity to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League.

Eight of their final 10 fixtures against sides currently placed 11th or below.

If you compare Forest’s overall run-in with Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea (all of whom have to travel to the City Ground), they statistically face the second most favourable set of matches, behind the Gunners.

The run-in compared

Opponents PPG is calculated based on: - Home Points Per Game of opponents faced away - Away Points Per Game of opponents faced at home

Can they actually do it?

Nottingham Forest have a rich pedigree in English football, winning the title in 1977/78 and following that up with back-to-back European Cup triumphs in 1978/79 and 1979/80.

Even so, were they to finish this season in top spot it would have to usurp Leicester's unlikely triumph nine years ago.

Liverpool are setting the pace with an outstanding points return, that currently has them on course to finish on 92 points.

Arne Slot’s side may falter of course, but with Nottingham Forest on course for 76 points they would need to improve greatly to come close.

Is that doable?

Attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White was not writing off the possibility when speaking to Sky Sports on Monday.

He said: "It would be absolutely incredible. First and foremost, just for the fans. There would be a few that would be able to experience it twice so be able to give them that opportunity is what we really wat to do as a club.”

Michael Owen, a 2010/11 title with Manchester United is also entertaining the idea of another amazing underdog success.

"Absolutely, why not? That's what football is all about." said Owen, when asked if Nottingham Forest could be champions.

"I was thinking, can they hang on to a European spot, but as soon as you said Leicester, same points, I started thinking, can they?”

What do the stats say?

When you look at the average points needed to finish in the top five Premier League positions since 2000, Nottingham Forest should absolutely be dreaming of European football.

Improving enough to get top spot feels highly unlikely, but third, fourth or fifth are achievable.

Much will depend on how they handle the next eight fixtures as discussed, but should they maintain their current two points per game average, it will almost certainly be enough to finish third.

Injuries will need to be avoided, and in-form forwards Wood, Gibbs-White, Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi must also retain their current standards, but it is far from impossible.

With a solid shape, great team spirit, and momentum on their side, Forest can dare to dream.

Average points by position since 2000

The stats of Forest's season so far

Nottingham Forest have scored first in 16 of their 20 matches, a league-high

Thy have only trailed for 14.6 per cent of minutes played so far this season. Only Liverpool (14.2 per cent) and Arsenal (9.5 per cent) have been behind less.

Only four of 70 teams to have amassed at least 40 points after 20 matches have failed to finish inside the top four

Nuno’s side are on course to keep 17 clean sheets, which is four more than Manchester City managed in each of their last two title-winning seasons

Forest are averaging 1.45 goals per match, which will take them to 55 at the current rate. Each of the last eight champions have scored a minimum of 83 goals. Leicester scored 68.