Why Jackson is the key to ending Chelsea's winless run

Despite a five-game goalscoring drought, football writer Adrian Clarke looks at how Nicolas Jackson’s recent performances suggest he could be the catalyst for Chelsea’s attack. 

Winless in five Premier League matches, Chelsea are searching for a lift at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers on Monday evening - and Nicolas Jackson can be the man to provide it.

This may feel like a strange thing to say with the Blues striker currently on a five-match goalscoring drought.

Heavily criticised in midweek for spurning three ‘big chances’ against Bournemouth, the Senegalese front man has not found the back of the net since mid-December in a 2-1 win at home to Brentford.

During that run he has attempted 16 shots without success, with five of those coming from inside the six-yard box.

This expected goal (xG) shot map from the last five matches shows where Jackson had his opportunities.

Why Jackson could be the catalyst 

Chelsea’s first choice centre-forward may not have scored in recent matches, but he was in electric form in their 2-2 draw against the Cherries.

He made his mark with a wonderful assist for Cole Palmer. Spinning away from three defenders on the halfway line, the Senegal international drove down the middle of the pitch before slipping a perfect reverse pass into Palmer’s path.

The Blues forward also caused Andoni Iraola’s side numerous problems with his speed, movement and dribbling ability.

Incredibly unlucky not to find the back of the net himself, Jackson produced a total of seven attempts.

That was the joint most by a Chelsea player in a Premier League fixture since Diego Costa fired off nine shots against Crystal Palace in April 2017.

Jackson v Bournemouth

Jackson was criticised for missing chances, but both on and off the ball, he made things happen for Enzo Maresca’s side, evading his markers on a frequent basis.

Out of possession, his work rate was also incessant as he made himself available to receive passes from team-mates, and applied pressure to Bournemouth’s players.

Despite his barren spell in front of goal, there is no sign at all of Jackson hiding.

Jackson is a fluent mover

The Senegal international travels with the ball quite brilliantly at times, which could be bad news for a Wolverhampton Wanderers side who struggled to contain Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak in midweek.

Isak scored after running with the ball from close to the halfway line, and that is the kind of trait he shares with Chelsea’s leading striker.

Supplying three goals and three assists from his own ball carries, Jackson is among the most dangerous forwards in the division when he embarks on a dribble.

Of the list below, showing those with the most goal-ending ball carries, Jackson and Erling Haaland are the only "No 9s".

Goal-ending ball carries 2024/25

He came within a whisker of making it seven direct goal contributions when running down the spine of the pitch from inside his own half against Bournemouth, before hitting the post.

To contain him on the counter, Vitor Pereira’s Wolves must devise a plan for how they intend to stop Jackson dropping deep and running at them with the ball.

One of their three central defenders must follow him into midfield, but Pereira’s midfield will also have to screen passes into him to curb those breakaways at source.

Chelsea will have a high possession share at Stamford Bridge, but they are arguably at their most dangerous from counter attacks.

In terms of shots from fast breaks, the Blues have three players inside the division’s top six, a list which also contains Wolves' talisman Matheus Cunha.

Shots from fast breaks

So, from a tactical perspective, both head coaches will target those transitional moments where they can quickly turn defence into attack.

If Palmer fails to recover from injury in time to start, Jackson’s role on the counter will become even more important.

Finishing must match quality of Jackson's movement

While his profligacy in recent weeks has caused some frustration, Jackson has generally been good in front of goal for much of the 2024/25 campaign.

From MW1 to MW15, he had outperformed his expected goals target, scoring nine from an xG of 8.49.

Since then, the Chelsea star has racked up a further 2.2 xG without finding the target.

He has wasted some terrific opportunities of late, with this close-range effort against Bournemouth (below) an example of missing the target when well placed.

Jackson has also been unlucky in recent matches, denied by some terrific blocks and outstanding saves.

For example, Mark Travers produced a brilliant reaction stop to keep out an accurate Jackson header from just four yards out in MW21.

But compared to the division’s leading marksmen, Jackson does need to improve his finishing, especially from clear-cut opportunities.

Jackson's finishing compared to other PL forwards

*minimum six goals scored

Jackson’s excellent movement gets him into great positions though.

This was especially evident in Chelsea’s 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace, when he ran onto two fabulous passes for 1v1s with Dean Henderson.

He missed the target with both chances, but his run-making could not be faulted.

Jackson sees space very clearly and offers the players around him good passing options.

His desire to make a stream of intelligent runs will ensure Jackson always gets chances.

In Premier League terms he is among the very best in that department.

Off-the-ball runs in 2024/25

The key to success against Wolves, as well as in the weeks and months to come, is his final decision-making.

Once his finishing clicks and he gets calmer in front of goal, the 23-year-old has potential to be a prolific top-flight goalscorer.

Wolves will need to defend well to keep him quiet.