Race for Europe: How many clubs could qualify?

Football writer Tom Hancock assesses the state of play as the race for places in European competition next season intensifies.

As the 2024/25 Premier League campaign reaches its business end, eight clubs - from third place to tenth - are now separated by just nine points in the race for European qualification.

Two-time European champions Nottingham Forest sit third and are on course to return to the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 1980, and AFC Bournemouth could qualify for Europe for the very first time.

Brighton & Hove Albion have their sights set on Champions League football for the first time in their history, while Manchester City have work to do if they’re to avoid missing out after 13 consecutive seasons in UEFA’s top club competition.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	29	+42	70
2	Arsenal ARS	28	+28	55
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	28	+12	51
4	Chelsea CHE	28	+17	49
5	Man City MCI	28	+15	47
6	Newcastle NEW	28	+9	47
7	Brighton BHA	28	+6	46
8	Aston Villa AVL	29	-4	45
9	Bournemouth BOU	28	+13	44
10	Fulham FUL	28	+3	42

Full table

How do clubs qualify for Europe?

As usual, the teams who finish first to fourth in the Premier League will all qualify for the league phase of the Champions League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.

In addition, the team who finish fifth could join the top four in the 2025/26 Champions League, instead of playing in the Europa League as Tottenham Hotspur - last season's fifth-placed side - have done in 2024/25.

That is dependent on UEFA granting the Premier League an additional place in the Champions League.

Should that happen, the team who finish sixth will qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Europa League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.

The FA Cup winners will also qualify directly for the league phase of the Europa League.

The EFL Cup winners qualify for the playoff round of the 2025/26 Conference League, the final qualifying round before the league phase of that competition.

However, the various qualification spots can change for a number of reasons.

How can we get a fifth place in the Champions League?

Since the expansion of the Champions League from 32 to 36 teams, UEFA have granted two leagues an extra qualification spot. These additional berths are awarded to the two leagues from the countries which rank highest in UEFA’s table of coefficients, which are determined by clubs' performances in UEFA competition.

At present, England and Spain rank first and second respectively, meaning the Premier League and LaLiga would each have five clubs in next season’s Champions League, up from their standard four. In that event, as things stand, Man City would take the fifth qualification spot.

There could even be as many as SEVEN English clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League. That would be the case if the Premier League's top five all qualified by virtue of their league position; if a Premier League side won this season’s Champions League but finished outside the top five; and if Spurs or Manchester United, currently 13th and 14th in the Premier League respectively and highly unlikely to climb into the top five, won this season’s Europa League.

If the above were to happen, half of the Premier League - 10 teams - could be competing in Europe next season: seven in the Champions League, two in the Europa League (sixth-placed team and FA Cup winners) and one in the Conference League (EFL Cup winners).

Could there even be 11 English teams in Europe?

There is an unlikely chance that European competitions will feature 11 English clubs next season if: 

• Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, Man City and Newcastle United finish as the top 5 AND
• Aston Villa win the Champions League and finish 8-10th AND
• Man Utd or Spurs win the Europa League and finish in the top 10 AND
• Chelsea win the Conference League and finish 8-10th

This would mean seven Champions League spots, three in the Europa League, and one place in the Conference League. 

Which team chasing European football is in the best form?

With 20 points from their last 10 matches, Brighton are the current form team among those sides competing for European qualification. The Seagulls have won four on the spin, giving them the longest active winning streak in the Premier League.

Man City, Newcastle, Forest and Villa have also taken more than 50 per cent of the last 30 points available, although none of them have recorded consecutive league victories since January.

Premier League form - last 10 matches

Who’s got the best fixtures?

Using the Fantasy Premier League’s Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) system, which ranks the perceived difficulty of each fixture from one (easy) to five (hard), we can determine which European contenders have the easiest and hardest run-ins on paper.

With an average FDR of 2.6, Forest appear to have the kindest set of remaining fixtures. Apart from a trip to Villa at the start of April and a final-day home match against Chelsea, Forest only have to play teams currently in the bottom half of the table.

By contrast, Chelsea and Fulham share the highest average FDR of 3.3. The West London rivals have to face five and six top-half sides respectively, including each other in Matchweek 33.

Difficulty rating (FDR) for clubs' remaining fixtures

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams in the race for Europe in full:

Forest: IPS (A); MUN (H); AVL (A); EVE (H); TOT (A); BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)

Chelsea: ARS (A); TOT (H); BRE (A); IPS (H); FUL (A); EVE (H); LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)

Man City: BRI (H); LEI (H); MUN (A); CRY (H); EVE (A); AVL (H); WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)

Newcastle: BRE (H); LEI (A); MUN (H); CRY (H); AVL (A); IPS (H); BRI (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)

Brighton: MCI (A); AVL (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); BRE (A); WHU (H); NEW (H); WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)

Aston Villa: BRI (A); NFO (H); SOU (A); NEW (H); MCI (A); FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)

Bournemouth: BRE (H); IPS (H); WHU (A); FUL (H); CRY (A); MUN (H); ARS (A); AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)

Fulham: TOT (H); ARS (A); LIV (H); BOU (A); CHE (H); SOU (A); AVL (A); EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)

Key matches to look out for*

Saturday 15 March
Man City v Brighton

Wednesday 2 April
Brighton v Villa

Saturday 5 April
Villa v Forest

Monday 14 April
Bournemouth v Fulham

Saturday 19 April
Fulham v Chelsea
Villa v Newcastle

Monday 28 April
Man City v Villa

Saturday 3 May
Villa v Fulham
Brighton v Newcastle

Sunday 18 May
Man City v Bournemouth
Brentford v Fulham

Sunday 25 May
Fulham v Man City
Forest v Chelsea

*Dates subject to change