Race for Europe: How many clubs could qualify?

Football writer Tom Hancock assesses the state of play as the race for places in European competition next season intensifies.

As the 2024/25 Premier League campaign reaches its business end, eight clubs - from fourth place to 11th - are now separated by just eight points in the race for European qualification.

Two-time European champions Nottingham Forest sit third and are on course to return to the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 1980, and AFC Bournemouth could qualify for Europe for the very first time.

Brighton & Hove Albion have their sights set on making their debut in the Champions League, while Manchester City have work to do if they’re to avoid missing out after 13 consecutive seasons in UEFA’s top club competition.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	31	+42	73
2	Arsenal ARS	31	+30	62
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	31	+14	57
4	Chelsea CHE	31	+17	53
5	Newcastle NEW	30	+13	53
6	Man City MCI	31	+17	52
7	Aston Villa AVL	31	0	51
8	Fulham FUL	31	+5	48
9	Brighton BHA	31	+2	47

Full table

How do clubs qualify for Europe?

As usual, the teams who finish first to fourth in the Premier League will all qualify for the league phase of the Champions League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.

In addition, the team who finish fifth could join the top four in the 2025/26 Champions League, instead of playing in the Europa League as Tottenham Hotspur - last season's fifth-placed side - have done in 2024/25.

That is dependent on UEFA granting the Premier League an additional place in the Champions League.

Should that happen, the team who finish sixth will qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Europa League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.

See: How clubs qualify for Europe

The FA Cup winners will also qualify directly for the league phase of the Europa League.

The EFL Cup winners, Newcastle United, qualify for the playoff round of the 2025/26 Conference League. 

However, the various qualification spots can change for a number of reasons.

For example, if Newcastle also qualify for the Champions League or Europa League, via their Premier League position (top five or six), their Conference League place will pass to the next highest-placed team that has not already qualified for European competition.

How can we get a fifth place in the Champions League?

Since the expansion of the Champions League from 32 to 36 teams, UEFA have granted two leagues an extra qualification spot. These additional berths are awarded to the two leagues from the countries which rank highest in UEFA’s table of coefficients, which are determined by clubs' performances in UEFA competition.

At present, England and Spain rank first and second respectively, meaning the Premier League and LaLiga would each have five clubs in next season’s Champions League, up from their standard four. In that event, as things stand, Man City would take the fifth qualification spot.

There could even be as many as SEVEN English clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League. That would be the case if:

- the Premier League's top five all qualified by virtue of their league position
- AND if a Premier League side won this season’s Champions League but finished outside the top five
- AND if Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, currently 13th and 14th in the Premier League respectively and highly unlikely to climb into the top five, won this season’s Europa League.

If the above were to happen, half of the Premier League - 10 teams - could be competing in Europe next season: seven in the Champions League, two in the Europa League (sixth-placed team and FA Cup winners) and one in the Conference League (EFL Cup winners).

Could there even be 11 English teams in Europe?

There is an unlikely chance that European competitions will feature 11 English clubs next season. Here is one scenario where this could happen:
- Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League
- Newcastle finish fifth and claim England’s additional Champions League spot
- Brighton & Hove Albion finish six and qualify for the Europa League
- Bournemouth finish seventh and take the Conference League place passed down by EFL Cup winners Newcastle
- Chelsea finish eighth and qualify for the Europa League by winning this season’s Conference League
- Aston Villa finish ninth and qualify for the Champions League by winning this season’s Champions League
- Crystal Palace finish 10th and qualify for the Europa League by winning this season’s FA Cup
- Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur finish 11th and qualify for the Champions League by winning this season’s Europa League

This would mean seven Champions League spots, three in the Europa League, and one place in the Conference League for the 11th-placed team. 

Which team chasing European football are in the best form?

With 13 points from their last five matches, Brighton are the current form team among those sides competing for European qualification. The Seagulls won four on the spin before drawing 2-2 at champions Man City in their last match.

Brentford, Fulham and Villa have also taken more than 50 per cent of the last 15 points available but all of them have lost at least one of their last five games.

Premier League form in last five matches

Who’s got the best fixtures?

Using the Fantasy Premier League’s Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) system, which ranks the perceived difficulty of each fixture from one (easy) to five (hard), we can determine which European contenders have the easiest and hardest run-ins on paper.

With an average FDR of 2.6, Forest appear to have the kindest set of remaining fixtures. Apart from a trip to Villa at the start of April and a final-day home match against Chelsea, Forest only have to play teams currently in the bottom half of the table.

By contrast, Chelsea and Fulham share the highest average FDR of 3.2 and 3.3, respectively. The West London rivals have to face four and six top-half sides respectively, including each other in Matchweek 33.

Average difficulty (FDR) from hardest to easiest

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams in the race for Europe in full:

Forest: MUN (H); AVL (A); EVE (H); TOT (A); BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)

Chelsea: TOT (H); BRE (A); IPS (H); FUL (A); EVE (H); LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)

Man City: LEI (H); MUN (A); CRY (H); EVE (A); AVL (H); WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)

Newcastle: BRE (H); LEI (A); MUN (H); CRY (H); AVL (A); IPS (H); BHA (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)

Brighton: AVL (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); BRE (A); WHU (H); NEW (H); WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)

Aston Villa: BHA (A); NFO (H); SOU (A); NEW (H); MCI (A); FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)

Bournemouth: IPS (H); WHU (A); FUL (H); CRY (A); MUN (H); ARS (A); AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)

Fulham: ARS (A); LIV (H); BOU (A); CHE (H); SOU (A); AVL (A); EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)

Key matches to look out for*

Wednesday 2 April
Brighton v Villa

Saturday 5 April
Villa v Forest

Monday 14 April
Bournemouth v Fulham

Saturday 19 April
Fulham v Chelsea
Villa v Newcastle

Monday 28 April
Man City v Villa

Saturday 3 May
Villa v Fulham
Brighton v Newcastle

Sunday 18 May
Man City v Bournemouth
Brentford v Fulham

Sunday 25 May
Fulham v Man City
Forest v Chelsea

*Dates subject to change