Arsenal may be top of the table but their manager Mikel Arteta, formerly a coach at Manchester City, will be only too aware that his side are being pursued by a team who are at their best in the second half of the campaign.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +61 | 89 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +45 | 84 |
Over the last five seasons, Man City have delivered the most points in the second half.
They have provided the best points returns in four of those campaigns, winning the trophy each time. Only Liverpool, in their title-winning 2019/20 season, have outperformed City in the second half of a season.
See: Why Guardiola is reshaping his defence without Cancelo
City's average of 46.6 points from their last 19 matches over that time is three more than Liverpool's and 12 points clear of the next-best average, Manchester United's.
Points in second half of the season
| MCI | LIV | MUN | ARS | CHE | NEW | |
| 17/18 | 45 | 40 | 39 | 29 | 31 | 26 |
| 18/19 | 54 | 46 | 34 | 32 | 32 | 28 |
| 19/20 | 43 | 44 | 38 | 32 | 34 | 19 |
| 20/21 | 45 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 38 | 26 |
| 21/22 | 46 | 51 | 27 | 34 | 33 | 38 |
| Ave. | 46.6 | 43.2 | 34.4 | 32.2 | 33.6 | 27.4 |
So, how has Pep Guardiola managed to get such a return from his team, especially at a time in the season when they have been pushing for their first UEFA Champions League triumph?
Much of this success is due to Guardiola's famed rotation policy.
City generally have the most changes to their starting XI over a campaign, although their totals were exceeded by Man Utd in 2017/18 and Liverpool last season.
Most starting XI changes in each season
| Season | Club | Starting XI changes | Players used |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | MUN | 106 | 27 |
| MCI | 99 | 25 | |
| 2018/19 | MCI | 109 | 21 |
| LIV | 76 | 23 | |
| 2019/20 | MCI | 144 | 24 |
| LIV | 82 | 24 | |
| 2020/21 | MUN | 120 | 29 |
| MCI | 136 | 24 | |
| LIV | 91 | 28 | |
| 2021/22 | MCI | 106 | 26 |
| LIV | 113 | 27 |
Analysing the numbers for this season, in the table below, the difference is stark.
The 45 changes to Guardiola's starting XIs are three times more than the 14 Arteta has made, even if the latter has used three more players.
Rotation of top four in 2022/23
| Club | Starting XI changes | Players used |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 14 | 24 |
| Man City | 45 | 21 |
| Newcastle | 21 | 24 |
| Man Utd | 41 | 23 |
It certainly seems that Arteta, and Eddie Howe at Newcastle United, have been more dependent on a core number of players this campaign.
This is backed up by a look at how the minutes are distributed around the squads of the top four sides.
If the time of the 11 players with the most minutes played (the core XI) is totalled, the main XI for Arsenal have played 1,500 minutes more than City's. And Newcastle's total is even more than Arsenal's.
Total minutes of most-used 11 players
| Club | Minutes played |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 16,546 |
| Man City | 14,914 |
| Newcastle | 17,082 |
| Man Utd | 14,474 |
Interestingly, the two tables above show that Erik ten Hag has rotated his Man Utd squad in a similar way to Guardiola as the Red Devils fight on four fronts in the Premier League, UEFA Europa League, FA Cup and EFL Cup.
With Arsenal returning to Europe themselves in March, Arteta's use of his squad will also be tested.
Indeed, as he and his former boss Guardiola go head-to-head in the title race, both managers' decisions on when and how to rotate could be decisive.