Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 31.
Player analysis - Ollie Watkins
With nine goals in his last 11 appearances, Watkins is in the form of his life heading into Saturday’s lunchtime home match against Newcastle United.
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Watkins’ pace has helped him run in behind the last defender to score against Leicester City, Arsenal and Chelsea.
But his hot streak has also included two headers, alongside calm, clinical finishes from inside the box.
Steven Gerrard consistently wrestled with his choice of Watkins or Danny Ings as his No 1 striker, but Unai Emery immediately identified the former Brentford star as his preferred choice.
Villa have scored at least once in all 17 of their Premier League matches under Emery, and tellingly Watkins has struck in 10 of those.
Watkins' goal v Nott'm Forest
😮💨 The touch to send the defender.
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) April 10, 2023
😮💨 The finish.
😮💨 The celebration. pic.twitter.com/lukpd8aD6o
Watkins has scored in 12 different league matches this season, a feat that has only been surpassed by Christian Benteke, Juan Pablo Angel and Dwight Yorke in a single campaign for the club.
He is also netting at a faster rate than ever before at Premier League level.
Watkins mins per goal by season
| Season | Goals | Mins/goal |
|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 14 | 237.8 |
| 2021/22 | 11 | 268.6 |
| 2022/23 | 12 | 201.6 |
Newcastle have been excellent at the back this season, with Fabian Schar and Sven Botman both excelling.
But the pair struggled a little more than usual last time out at Brentford, up against Ivan Toney, and Watkins will also make their life difficult in a duel between two teams pushing for European qualification.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +61 | 89 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +45 | 84 |
| 3 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
38 | +15 | 75 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +35 | 71 |
| 5 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +28 | 67 |
| 6 |
Brighton
BHA
|
38 | +19 | 62 |
His movement around the box is outstanding and he is a very adaptable finisher.
He has a knack of finding space around the penalty area, which is why he ranks joint-fifth in the Premier League this season for the most shots taken from inside the box.
Most shots inside the box 22/23
| Player | Shots inside the box |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 87 |
| Harry Kane | 82 |
| Mohamed Salah | 76 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 74 |
| Ollie Watkins | 63 |
| Ivan Toney | 63 |
In some respects, this match could be seen as a shootout between Watkins and Newcastle’s own in-form forward Alexander Isak, who has five goals in his last five matches.
He and Watkins are two of the most clinical strikers around, with both hitting the target with the majority of their shots.
Read: Analysis of Villa's late charge
Isak is the league's most accurate among players to have scored at least five times, registering a superb 90 per cent shot accuracy.
Roberto Firmino is the only striker to sandwich Isak and Watkins, who hits the target with 72.2 per cent of his efforts.
Best shot accuracy 22/23*
| Player | Shooting accuracy |
|---|---|
| Alexander Isak | 90.0% |
| Roberto Firmino | 78.6% |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | 75.0% |
| Phil Foden | 73.1% |
| Ollie Watkins | 72.2% |
| Son Heung-min | 71.1% |
*Minimum five goals scored
If chances fall Isak or Watkins’ way, both managers have a striker they can trust to deliver in the key moments.
Also in this series
Part 1: Where MW31 matches will be won and lost
Part 3: How Eriksen's return will lift Man Utd attack
Part 4: Zouma has the game to handle Jesus threat