With plenty more drama guaranteed at both ends of the table in Matchweek 32, Alex Keble looks at the key talking points.
Leeds’ collapsing defence can help Fulham climb
Javi Gracia’s appointment was supposed to make Leeds United more defensively secure, but that has been dramatically undermined by their 5-1 and 6-1 defeats in consecutive matches at home to Crystal Palace and Liverpool.
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Eight of these 11 goals were conceded in the second half and indeed the manner of their collapses has put a question mark over the mentality of the squad.
“We lost the composure during the game,” Gracia said. “We tried in the beginning and maybe the first goal opened the game - and maybe coming from a handball - but, after this, nothing to say.”
Most alarmingly for Leeds supporters, by almost any measure, is that they have become worse defensively since Gracia took over, conceding far more chances as a consequence of sitting deeper than under Jesse Marsch.
Leeds under Marsch/Gracia 22/23
| 22/23 under Marsch | 22/23 under Gracia | |
| xG against | 1.5 | 2.2 |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles/90 | 23.2 | 20.5 |
| Shot-creating actions/90 | 23.2 | 24.3 |
| Key actions against/90 | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| Passes into final third against/90 | 26.2 | 38.5 |
| Passes into penalty area against/90 | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| Progressive passes against/90 | 35.2 | 44.1 |
Fulham are on the up after a 3-1 win at Everton courtesy of Dan James’ new position as a centre-forward. Having already beaten Leeds twice this season, they will be hopeful of getting their European challenge back on track.
Their 1.8 xG recorded against Everton was Fulham’s highest since a 3-0 Boxing Day win over Crystal Palace, so if Leeds are anywhere near as porous as they have been this month, Marco Silva can be hopeful of closing the gap to either Brentford or Aston Villa, who play each other on Saturday.
Do Forest have another miracle in them?
Everything points to a simple Liverpool victory. The Reds have lost just one of their last 37 Premier League home matches (W27 D9).
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Nottingham Forest are winless in 10 and have the fewest points (six) and fewest wins (one) on the road.
What’s more, all of their six league successes have been to nil, yet Liverpool have only failed to score in one of their last 37 home fixtures, a 0-0 draw with Chelsea in January.
Forest seemingly need a miracle, but considering the difficulty of their remaining matches - and the fact they only have another three at the City Ground - frankly their hopes of safety depend on at least one shock result.
To be fair, they’ve done it before – beating Liverpool 1-0 at home back in October, although Forest have only completed the double over Liverpool twice before, in 1910/11 and 1962/63.
Is it possible? To stand a chance Forest will need to park the bus, as they did in the reverse fixture when a brick wall of three defensive midfielders - Cheikhou Kouyate, Remo Freuler, and Ryan Yates – sat back and denied entry, as Forest held just 25 per cent possession, their lowest of the season to date. Both Kouyate and Yates are, however, doubts for the return fixture.
Over the last two matches, Steve Cooper has moved to a back five, which points to a humble 5-3-2 formation: super-narrow, super-deep, and aimed at simply stopping Liverpool from playing.
Eze can hit weakened Everton midfield
The secret to Roy Hodgson’s success at Crystal Palace appears to be the repositioning of Eberechi Eze in central midfield, a move that symbolises the manager's surprising embrace of expansive attacking football.
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Eze ripped through the Leicester City and Leeds midfields in his first two matches in the new role, before scoring both goals in the 2-0 win against Southampton last weekend.
His directness through the middle is carrying Palace through the lines.
All of a sudden Everton look particularly vulnerable to Eze.
Eze's improvement under Hodgson
| Statistic | Eze pre-Hodgson | Eze post-Hodgson |
|---|---|---|
| Touches per match | 35.7 | 51.0 |
| Successful take-ons per match | 1.5 | 5.0 |
| Progressive carries per match | 1.5 | 3.7 |
They were solid in a 4-5-1 when Abdoulaye Doucoure, Idrissa Gueye, and Amadou Onana were all available to Sean Dyche, but Doucoure’s suspension and Onana’s groin injury have prompted a switch to a 4-4-2 - and a downturn in performances.
Short on options for the 3-1 defeat against Fulham, Dyche drafted in James Garner for his first Premier League start of the season, but the midfielder, signed from Manchester United in the summer, managed just one tackle and no interceptions across the 90 minutes.
He is likely to start again alongside Gueye, presenting Eze with another chance to shine.
With Brenden Aaronson and James Maddison pushing up high for Leeds and Leicester respectively, Palace have effectively faced two-man central midfields in all three of Hodgson’s matches since returning as manager.
Dyche’s 4-4-2, mirroring Southampton’s, is vulnerable to the Premier League’s most in-form central midfielder.
Wolves’ 4-4-2 revival is bad timing for Leicester
Leicester are running out of time. Last weekend’s 3-1 defeat at Manchester City contained enough spirit and defensive resolve to hint at a great escape, but Dean Smith does not have long to convince the players that his conservative instincts are the right approach.
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It’s plain bad luck to face Wolverhampton Wanderers just after a tactical tweak from Julen Lopetegui, inspired back-to-back Premier League wins against Chelsea and Brentford.
The Wolves head coach's move to a 4-4-2 formation – briefly trialled in a 1-1 draw with Fulham in February, and reinstated before the Chelsea match a fortnight ago - is a distinctly attacking move: Matheus Cunha and Diego Costa are now together up front.
They were superb against Brentford in particular, linking intelligently throughout, but also indirectly making space for each other.
Costa occupied the centre-backs, creating space for Cunha, who dropped deep to pick up the ball and spray it out to the Wolves wingers.
Aston Villa looking for new Premier League record
According to Opta, the chances of Aston Villa finishing in the top four is just 0.5 per cent, but when you consider just how quickly they have risen up the table it would be foolish to rule it out completely.
For that to happen, they’ll need to win almost all of their remaining Premier League matches - and hope that last weekend’s 3-0 win against Newcastle United triggers a downward spiral for Eddie Howe’s side.
Of course, Unai Emery’s focus will be on any sort of European qualification, and Opta still only have Villa at a 36.8 per cent chance of finishing in the top seven, which could be enough to enter UEFA competition next season.
Victory over Brentford would open up a 10-point gap between the clubs and put Villa in a commanding position to secure a place in the top eight. There is expectation, now, that Villa will at least get that done.
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The records keep falling. If Villa extend their winning streak to six this weekend, it will be their longest ever in the Premier League, while Ollie Watkins can become the first Villa player to score 15+ goals in a single season, since Christian Benteke a decade ago.
Villa haven’t done the double over Brentford since 1946/47, but after beating them 4-0 earlier in the campaign – and with Thomas Frank’s side on a three-match losing streak, their longest since promotion – the away fans will be feeling confident.
