Adrian Clarke assesses Manchester City's bid to claim a fourth consecutive title, and whether last season's runners-up Arsenal or third-placed Manchester United can beat the reigning champions to the crown in 2023/24.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +61 | 89 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +45 | 84 |
| 3 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
38 | +15 | 75 |
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s Treble winners are understandably strong favourites to win a sixth Premier League crown in seven years.
Tactically it will be fascinating to see which boundaries Guardiola wants to push in 2023/24, after the success of his unusual 3-2-4-1 during the second half of last season. Interestingly, he reverted to a more standard 4-2-3-1 against Arsenal in last Sunday’s Community Shield.
Focus and drive is going to be of paramount importance in Man City's defence of their title.
Will they mentally ease off in the coming months on the back of such an incredible achievement last season? If they do, it will impact their points tally because silly slip-ups were few and far between last campaign. In fact, from a total of 60 points on offer, ruthless City claimed 56 points against sides who finished in the bottom half.
Rival clubs will also hope Erling Haaland suffers from "second season syndrome" after his sensational 36-goal haul. This feels extremely unlikely, but the Norwegian has scored only once in his last nine appearances for City in all competitions.
Overcoming game plans designed to nullify Haaland will be City's next big challenge.
It would make sense for the champions to try and spread the goalscoring load a little wider, anyway. Phil Foden, with 11 goals, was the only other player in Guardiola’s squad to reach double figures in 2022/23.
Arsenal
A lack of top-quality squad depth was a major factor in Arsenal’s drop-off towards the end of last season, and they have addressed that well with the signings of Declan Rice, Jurrien Timber and Kai Havertz.
The Gunners may not be quite as fluent as they can be early in the new campaign, but once this trio settles in they should be an even stronger team than the one which amassed 84 points.
How do Mikel Arteta’s side get to the 90-point mark this time around?
Scoring enough goals shouldn’t be a problem given how attack-minded they are, so the key to Arsenal making strides will lie in how much they improve without the ball.
See: Arteta: Win over Man City will lift our spirit
Rice’s powerful athleticism and ball-winning qualities will make a huge difference, especially if he is part of a midfield three which also includes Thomas Partey. The versatility of Netherlands international Timber is also a huge plus.
As a collective, Arteta’s side will need to focus on coping better with long balls, quick transitions of play and set-pieces. During the final three months of last season those were all problem areas, so until they are properly addressed the Gunners may need to continue scoring multiple times to win matches.
Arsenal claimed a clean sheet in only four of 19 matches at Emirates Stadium en route to second place. To make a step forward this season a greater number of home shutouts feels like a must.
Manchester United
Erik ten Hag is building Man Utd’s tactical identity brick by brick, so we can expect them to look a little different during 2023/24.
The acquisition of goalkeeper Andre Onana is a sign that the Red Devils will play out from the back with more consistency. They may experience teething problems, but part of their manager’s long-term strategy will be to take risks and pass the ball through the thirds.
See: How Onana overcame tough start at Ajax to become a global star
During pre-season they have pressed with greater aggression at the other end of the pitch. Attacking midfielders Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes will be key men in this aspect of their play, as will 20-year-old striker Rasmus Hojlund.
It will not be easy for Man Utd to close the 14-point gap to their neighbours Man City, but if certain improvements are made you can't rule Ten Hag’s team out of the title race.
Extra goals could certainly come from set-pieces. Corners and free-kicks were a major disappointment for United in 2022/23, as they scored only five times this way, the lowest return in the Premier League. Better deliveries and smarter routines are required.
United must also display far more strength of character in difficult away matches. Had they not dropped as many points on the road last season they would have been much closer to the title race.
Ten Hag’s side won only one of 11 matches away to top-12 opponents, collecting a meagre six points from a possible 33. Surely they will raise their game in those matches, and produce a markedly better return in the season ahead?
Also in this series
Part 1: Can promoted clubs repeat feats of 2022/23 sides and all stay up?
Part 2: How will six of last season's strugglers fare in 2023/24?
Part 3: Will fallen giants bounce back in 2023/24?
Part 4: What do disruptors need to do to maintain progress?