Alex Keble takes an in-depth look at a possible summer of change at Manchester City and how Pep Guardiola may look to rebuild his side again for the upcoming season.
Club analysis - Manchester City
One year ago Man City raised a few eyebrows when they let three senior players – Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko – leave without signing direct replacements, strengthening their potential Premier League rivals and ending the transfer window in profit.
As is so often the case (almost always, in fact), Guardiola disproved any critics, adapting his tactical methods and winning an historic Treble. It turns out he knew what he was doing all along.
By completely rewriting the rules on central defence, fielding four centre-backs towards the end of the season, and shifting to a radical new formation, Guardiola showed us he is more than capable of handling a transitional year.
Still, there is perhaps some mild alarm among Man City fans that the summer of 2023 is going the same way. One year of squad upheaval is to be expected of an ageing team. But two in a row?
Riyad Mahrez has left to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Ahli for a fee reported to be £30million. Club captain Ilkay Gundogan had earlier gone to Barcelona after letting his contract run down.
More departures?
Reports are Kyle Walker could also depart, while for a second summer in a row Bernardo Silva is reportedly wanted by several clubs.
Aymeric Laporte has also been linked away, but City have been heavily rumoured with a move for RB Leipzig centre-back Josko Gvardiol, while the loaning out of Joao Cancelo last season would suggest there may be few ways back for him, even if he has featured on the current tour to the Far East.
With Kalvin Phillips also being linked with a move away, that’s potentially a huge turnover of players over the last two years combined, and although it is unlikely all of the above will leave Man City this window, it remains possible that 11 of the 20 senior players who made up the 2021/22 squad will have departed by 1 September 2023.
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When asked about City's transfer activity, Guardiola's uncertainty regarding how the summer window will play out was clear.
"We will see what we have at the end of the transfer window, which team we will have," he said. "Honestly I didn't think there [would be] this movement. I think many things are going to happen. That’s why I cannot answer because I don't know."
Even a more conservative estimate of their transfer activity over the next five weeks might prompt fears the team is slowly breaking apart.
But do City really have a problem? Here’s are the cases for and against…
City disruption could signal end of an era
The main issue for Guardiola is the loss of creativity and its potential to disrupt the rhythm City found towards the end of the campaign; Mahrez and Gundogan contributed 24 goals and assists in the Premier League last season (their combined overall tally is 27, but three of these were Mahrez assisting Gundogan).
That is a significant loss of output in the final third, particularly in a team who became unusually reliant one player, Erling Haaland, who scored 38 per cent of City’s Premier League total last season.
Mahrez, in particular, became a crucial member of the team once Guardiola settled on his 3-2-2-3 formation, which relies upon two wingers sitting high and wide, ready to run directly at the opposition full-backs.
That’s enough disruption already, then, and yet if more players were to leave (Walker in particular, with his unique recovery pace in the back line, would be a huge loss), City would be facing another mini-rebuild of the sort that dropped them eight points off the pace in the first half of last season while Guardiola adapted to the changes.
"‘I want the best for my players and of course the club is involved with that as well," Guardiola said when asked about Walker's future. "I spoke with Kyle and everything is right - we will see what happens. I cannot tell you anything because he is still thinking about that," .
Rivals strengthening
Recovery might be harder this time. Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are notably adding quality in areas that were lacking last season, and doing so without losing any key players – or indeed shuffling the pack in the way Man City appear to be.
Arsenal, in particular, as the youngest team in the division, are expected to continue their collective improvement, building momentum by keeping their core together and integrating top players in Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber.
By contrast, City’s only signing this summer is a replacement for Gundogan, and although Mateo Kovacic is an astute addition, he is yet another player approaching 30, and, historically at least, has not matched Gundogan’s goal contribution.
More important than any one component, however, is the combined effect of allowing multiple key figures in the dressing room to depart. Even if the likes of Bernardo, Walker, and Phillips remain, it is possible the transfer speculation will prove unsettling in the new season.
If there is a sense of brain drain - of important players getting their heads turned - this could have subtle ramifications on dressing-room morale.
Indeed, after the outpouring of emotion after sealing the Treble, and a sense of “mission accomplished” hanging in the air (not helped by reports Guardiola will leave when his contract expires in two years), might it give the impression of an era ending, of this City team ebbing away?
Youthful regeneration under way
That’s the pessimistic take. But history has taught us never to doubt Guardiola’s methods, and the counter-argument is persuasive.
Most importantly, Mahrez is the only surprise departure so far and there is no guarantee more will follow. City are reportedly holding firm against the interest in Walker and Bernardo, while Phillips has made it clear he wishes to stay.
Gundogan has already been replaced by Kovacic, whose press-evading and ball-carrying qualities could help City become a little bit more direct, thus releasing Haaland’s best qualities, as we argued upon the Croat’s arrival.
In defence, Rico Lewis should be ready to step up after an impressive debut campaign last year, plus Man City appear close to signing the 21-year-old Gvardiol, a brilliant defender who helps bring the average age down.
What’s more, Guardiola’s move towards using four centre-backs in his starting XI suggests that adding Gvardiol means losing Walker and Laporte wouldn’t be felt at all.
Foden to step up?
Mahrez will be missed, however, and only time will tell if Guardiola thinks he needs to enter the transfer market to sign a direct replacement, or if Phil Foden can step up.
There certainly should be money to spend given that Man City are currently on course to make a profit in the summer transfer window for the second year in a row. By this measure, and most others, they are in a healthy position.
In short, looked at from a certain perspective, at the time of writing, the departures and incomings at Man City don’t necessarily change the dynamics of the squad.
Plus, even if the City team are ageing overall, there is one man yet to hit his prime – and about to enter his second season at Man City, which is traditionally when things click under Guardiola.
Haaland will miss the deliveries of Gundogan and Mahrez. But what he will gain from Kovacic’s weaving dribbles, or perhaps a resurgent Foden, is enough to assuage fears Man City are about to decline.