Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 33.
Team analysis: Aston Villa
Will Unai Emery play it safe, or opt for an adventurous approach in Aston Villa's pivotal home match against fellow top-five chasers, Newcastle United?
Villa’s head coach certainly has a choice because there is a plethora of exciting attacking options at his disposal.
Ollie Watkins, Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Donyell Malen have all been among the goals and are vying for starts.
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The Spaniard named three of them in his starting XI for an important 2-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest earlier this month, and that positivity paid off as they raced into an early two-goal lead.
Yet that bold mindset has been the exception to the norm in matches which look toughest on paper.
Emery named just one of the quartet in his XI across both legs against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final, and in the away tests at Crystal Palace, Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion.
A change of tact from Emery
In February and for the bulk of March, the Villa manager rotated his forwards, but did so with a relatively fixed mindset in terms of their positioning.
Watkins led the line as the centre-forward, with Rashford on the left and Asensio operating as an attacking midfielder or No 10, whenever they were in the team.
Netherlands international Malen was given one start as a central striker but was essentially the back-up option on the right wing.
How Villa forwards were used - Feb & March*
| Watkins | Rashford | Asensio | Malen | |
| Centre-forward | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left wing | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Right wing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Attacking midfield | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Substitute | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
*In all competitions
In April, Emery has taken a differing viewpoint, preferring the pace and unpredictability of Rashford at centre-forward, with 14-goal Watkins coming off the bench.
Despite consistently making a positive impression, Asensio and Malen have not been first-choice players, with the likes of John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey joining Morgan Rogers in support of the striker instead.
This change may in part be down to concerns over Rashford’s off-the-ball work in the wide areas.
How Villa forwards were used - April so far*
| Watkins | Rashford | Asensio | Malen | |
| Centre-forward | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left wing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Right wing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Attacking midfield | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Substitute | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
*In all competitions
Could Villa switch to two up front?
Emery was criticised for substituting a razor-sharp Rashford with Watkins against PSG in midweek, rather than using them in tandem as they chased a goal that would have levelled the tie.
It is something the Spaniard is considering though, as revealed in his press conference ahead of that match.
Emery said: "The next step, if I have time, is to play them together.
"We did with Rashford playing left side, but now we are choosing more with both playing as strikers. That's the next step. I want to practice. I want to test, with enough time, but not now."
This would indicate that while it’s unlikely Emery switches to a 4-4-2 for Newcastle’s visit, with three days training behind them, do not write off the possibility.
This change would limit Asensio’s prospects of being involved - as he has been used exclusively as a No 10 - but in that set-up, we could see Villa start like this…
Villa's potential line-up with Rashford and Watkins paired up front
Analysis: who’s the best finisher?
All four of Villa’s front men have made an impact, but it is Malen, the player used most sparingly, that boasts the best numbers when it comes to finishing.
The 26-year-old has scored in each of his last three appearances, so after sitting out the PSG match in midweek, the Dutch forward could be in line for some involvement against the Magpies.
His shooting accuracy and conversion rates have certainly been impressive.
How Villa forwards' finishing compares
| Shot conversion | Big-chance conversion | Shot accuracy | |
| Malen | 30.0% | 50.0% | 87.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asensio | 17.6% | 40.0% | 71.4% |
| Watkins | 19.2% | 34.3% | 60.3% |
| Rashford | 6.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Malen finished well at the far post to convert a lovely cross from Ian Maatsen in the victory at home to Forest.
He also showed his worth as a substitute in the wins at Southampton and Brighton & Hove Albion, driving carbon-copy strikes into the far corner.
This signature finish from Malen is something Newcastle must be wary of this weekend.
From the right side of the box, he is a major threat.
Malen's goal v Southampton
Malen's goal v Brighton
Progressive passes from midfield can unlock Newcastle
In recent weeks, we have seen Villa score some superb goals from direct attacks that punish the opposition’s high line.
Youri Tielemans is a master at delivering quality through balls, ranking joint-third in the division in that department.
And after splitting the Southampton and Forest defences open with inch-perfect passes for Watkins and Rogers to score, Tielemans will need to be closed down tightly at Villa Park.
Tielemans' assists v Southampton and Forest
A brilliant Rogers pass also put Rashford away for a 1v1 that he scored against Brighton.
If Newcastle's defenders do not get their positioning right when there is no pressure on the ball, Villa have shown they have the ability to hurt them with balls over the top.
Rashford's goal v Brighton
Is it time to roll the dice?
From a tactical angle, there are two ways to look at a match against a Newcastle side who have scored 14 goals in their last four Premier League matches.
Emery could opt for a safety-first approach, deploying the industrious McGinn, Ramsey and Rogers behind a single forward in a bid to contain the visitors.
Or in turn, he could unleash a starting XI designed to play front-foot football, and try to outscore the third-placed side.
When you look at how many shots each of his quartet are averaging, how many big chances they tend to get on the end of, and the impressive rate each of them scores at, the Villa head coach does find himself in a good position.
How the forwards' goal threat compares
| Shots per 90 | Big chances per 90 | xG per 90 | Mins per goal | |
| Malen | 3.50 | 1.40 | 0.55 | 85.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asensio | 3.88 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 131.33 |
| Watkins | 3.02 | 1.45 | 0.59 | 155.43 |
| Rashford | 3.75 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 360.00 |
Interestingly, it is Rashford who offers the lowest goal threat.
So, to use him as a lone centre-forward again at the expense of others may limit Villa from an attacking perspective against Newcastle.
Emery may want to keep his powder dry and unleash extra firepower in the second half, but as the Magpies have only beaten one top-12 team away from home all season, this could be the right time to roll the dice.
His tactical choices are well worth keeping a close eye on this weekend.
