Alex Keble looks at the qualities Mateo Kovacic can bring to Manchester City following his move from Chelsea.
Player analysis - Mateo Kovacic
Pep Guardiola's first signing of the summer may surprise many, particularly because Kovacic has rarely been a regular at Chelsea, starting just 33 of the last 76 Premier League matches. But, make no mistake, he will be an excellent addition to City's squad.
Kovacic already matches the profile of central midfielders whom Guardiola prefers but, more importantly, he can also add something new, which could help get even more out of Erling Haaland.
Perfect fit
The most obvious way in which Kovacic fits Man City is his elegant control of the ball and capacity to both recycle possession in tight spaces and create chances.
Although he has often played as one of a midfield two in a 3-4-3 at Chelsea, which makes a direct comparison with City’s 4-3-3 difficult, he has also featured regularly as a No 8 – and this is presumably where Guardiola sees Kovacic playing.
After Ilkay Gundogan's move to Barcelona, Kovacic's arrival adds necessary reinforcement to Guardiola's midfield, as Kalvin Phillips (signed as backup for Rodri) plays further back, while Bernardo Silva and Julian Alvarez arguably both prefer to play higher up the pitch.
The stats would certainly suggest Kovacic is a strong replacement in the build-up phase, capable of calmly stroking the ball around in the middle and final thirds as Gundogan did.
Taking a look at his numbers last season, it is remarkable that Kovacic outperformed Gundogan despite playing for a club that finished 12th in the Premier League.
Gundogan v Kovacic touches/passes 22/23*
| Gundogan | Kovacic | |
|---|---|---|
| Touches | 69.2 | 78.5 |
| Passes completed | 52.6 | 59.5 |
| Passes into final third | 5.48 | 8.32 |
| Shot-creating actions | 3.45 | 3.26 |
*per 90min
An intelligent and dynamic footballer, there is no doubt Kovacic has the geometric awareness and ball control to operate to a very high level in Guardiola’s fine-tuned formation.
That "passes into the final third" stat is particularly impressive, ranking Kovacic sixth among all Premier League players.
What’s more, we know from Kovacic’s performances under previous Chelsea regimes that he can adapt his game to a more conservative ball-retention style.
In 2020/21, he averaged 96.5 touches and 79.4 completed passes, both metrics placing him third in the Premier League behind Rodri and Jordan Henderson.
Releasing Haaland
Not that Guardiola will necessarily want Kovacic to adapt to his old self.
There’s more to Kovacic than that, and in two important – and intertwined - areas he can take Man City to a new level, taking greater advantage of the qualities Haaland brings to the team.
Kovacic is superb at what’s known as "press resistance", the capacity to wriggle out of trouble when under pressure from one or more opposition players, often via a dribble or clever pass around the corner.
Think Mousa Dembele at his peak at Tottenham Hotspur, or how Rodri acts as a metronome, opening the match up by ensuring the opposition press rarely catches Man City out.
In 2022/23, Kovacic ranked 14th overall in the Premier League for the number of times pressures by an opponent within two metres (18.2/90min) and ninth for his success in dealing with this pressure (82.7 per cent).
Kovacic’s main escape route is by carrying the ball. Look at how much more vertical and direct he was in his movements than Gundogan.
Gundogan v Kovavic carries/passes 22/23
| Gundogan | Kovacic | |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 41.1 | 53.2 |
| Carries into final third | 1.69 | 2.05 |
| Progressive passes | 6.51 | 8.05 |
*per 90min
It’s worth noting that his 53.2 carries per match last season were third among all Premier League midfielders with 10+ matches, behind only Rodri and Enzo Fernandez.
To make this press-evading, forward-thrusting quality more concrete, look at Kovacic’s performance for Chelsea against Man City back in September 2021, a fixture Chelsea lost 1-0 but in which Kovacic achieved a match-high five successful take-ons.
Receiving the ball encircled by Man City pressers, Kovacic somehow weaved between them and – having broken the pitch wide open – fed Timo Werner through on goal.
Out of nothing, Kovacic created a counter-attacking-like moment for a quick runner, which is something he did a lot last season.
In 2021/22, when Chelsea were performing to a higher standard, Kovacic averaged 0.69 through-balls per 90, the fifth most among players with at least 10 90mins, and 3.64 carries into the final third per 90, a competition-high among midfielders.
No prizes for guessing whom that might benefit at the Etihad Stadium!
Man City have become less direct with each passing season under Guardiola, but with Haaland now leading the line, the manager may be looking for ways to utilise his speed.
Man City direct attacks
| Direct attacks | Ave. direct speed | Ave. sequence time | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/21 | 67 | 1.11m/s | 15.21sec |
| 21/22 | 66 | 1.09m/s | 15.29sec |
| 22/23 | 52 | 0.98m/s | 15.38sec |
We saw this more frequently towards the end of 2022/23, for example when Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne interacted to burst beyond Arsenal in the 4-1 win in April.
Guardiola isn’t exactly going to abandon his core beliefs – of measured control and gradually moving up the pitch as one - but there are clues that he might be looking to release Haaland earlier, adding another string to Man City’s bow.
In Kovacic, they have the perfect midfielder to evade the press, break the lines, and set Haaland away.