How promoted sides can recover from early struggles

Alex Keble takes a look at how the three promoted sides have fared following the first four Matchweeks of the Premier League.

For the first time in the Premier League’s 31-year history, the three promoted clubs have failed to win a single point from their first three matches. 

FUL

1-0

LUT

TOT

2-1

SHU

NFO

1-1

BUR

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Burnley’s 5-2 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday made it a combined nine defeats from nine matches for them, Luton Town and Sheffield United, with the Blades’ 2-2 draw against Everton coming in their fourth encounter of the season. 

Only once before have all three promoted clubs been relegated, in 1997/98, and that year Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace won 13 points (four wins, one draw) from their first nine matches. 

Bad starts don’t necessarily foreshadow bad endings, then, and it should be noted that had Luton’s first home fixture against Burnley not been postponed from Matchweek 2, the three clubs would have won at least two points between them in the first three rounds. 

Nevertheless, it’s been a difficult start. Here’s how the three clubs are shaping up as we enter the first international break, with reasons for their fans to have some cheer. 

Sheffield United 

Unlike Burnley and Luton, Sheff Utd cannot simply blame a difficult fixture list, although there were plenty of positives from the Everton match to make them optimistic about the future. 

Starting with the pros, Cameron Archer looked excellent on his goalscoring debut, following an £18.5million move from Aston Villa. He has instantly formed a classic little-and-large partnership with Oliver McBurnie, giving Paul Heckingbottom’s 3-5-2 formation the strike partnership it needs. 

Archer's goal v Everton

But these two won’t get many chances (Sheff Utd have the lowest Expected Goals (xG) in the division of 2.9 among teams to have played four matches) unless things improve in defence and midfield. 

The deadline day re-signing of James McAtee was a much-needed boost following the loss of Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge over the summer. Ndiaye contributed 25 goals and assists last season and Berge contributed 11, plus both players played a crucial role in bringing midfield control to a team more direct than most (they averaged only 51 per cent possession). 

That loss in midfield might explain why this season, the Blades are averaging 37.3 per cent possession and rank second in the Premier League both for number of crosses allowed and number of switches of play allowed, despite facing low-possession teams in Palace, Nottingham Forest and Everton. 

Things are more concerning at the back. Heckingbottom’s back three/five have struggled so far. His team’s xG against of 9.3 goals is the second-highest in the division; the 85 shots they have faced are the most and they rank bottom for percentage of aerial duels won, with 37.8 per cent. 

Perhaps their main hope is that - as a direct team rarely comfortable holding much of the ball - Sheff Utd will fare better against stronger opponents.  

After all, a late equaliser against Manchester City almost won them a point following long periods of backs-to-the-walls defending. But they will need to base a push for safety on more than scraping points against the competition's elite. 

Luton Town 

Few people think Luton stand a realistic chance of safety, especially not after spending only a reported £25million on a squad who punched well above its weight in the Championship last season. But – so far - things haven’t gone too badly. 

We should not be surprised to see Luton lose at Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea, who both possess far too much quality for Rob Edwards’ side. The only match worth judging, then, was the first Premier League match at Kenilworth Road, where Luton, despite losing 2-1 to West Ham United, can take some positives. 

They recorded an xG of 1.4 in this match compared with West Ham’s 1.1, outshot the visitors 16 to 9, and were competitive right up until an 85^th-minute set-piece continued David Moyes’s side's hot streak. 

Andersen's goal v West Ham

More sides will struggle at Kenilworth Road. Last season, Luton averaged 45.3 per cent possession and conceded just 39 goals.

Yet while they are very direct and old-fashioned in their attacking play (scoring 16 set-pieces goals, 26 per cent of their total), Luton like to press hard, finishing the season with the third lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action, which measures the intensity of a team’s pressing) in the Championship with 11.1, and topping the charts for high turnovers with 426. 

So, Luton will be aggressive off the ball while keeping things tight, before launching it long to win set-pieces. West Ham didn’t enjoy it – and not many will.  

A lack of comparative quality in all areas still undermines Luton’s prospects, but after some tough opening matches, Luton fans shouldn’t be too disheartened. 

Burnley 

Vincent Kompany’s side have the opposite problem to the other promoted teams. Having won 101 points last season with an average possession share of 64.6 per cent, Burnley have carried on with their Pep Guardiola-inspired football, rather than take a more pragmatic approach to matches. 

It’s been a case of more of the same, complete with hard pressing from the front and expansive positioning both in and out of possession, which has meant huge gaps for Man City, Tottenham Hotspur, and Aston Villa to play through. 

It’s a problem in the Burnley half and in the opposition half; on the ball and off the ball. 

Burnley regularly play out from the back: they have registered the fifth fewest clearances with 13.7, keeping company with Man City and Chelsea, and sit fifth in the table for average sequence time (12.18 seconds) for each move.

At Premier League level, this makes them vulnerable to being picked off by hard-pressing opponents. 

Higher up the pitch, Burnley’s man-to-man press (they rank second in the Premier League for tackles in the attacking third, with 3.67 per 90) is being easily outmanoeuvred, hence why Burnley have conceded more goals than anyone else (11) despite only playing three matches and have made the most errors leading to a shot per 90 (1.33).   

Foster's goal v Aston Villa

However, Burnley could hardly have been given a more difficult set of opening fixtures, and Kompany’s uncompromising tactical vision stands a better chance against clubs that are likely to finish in the bottom half of the table. 

Perhaps after the international break, when they visit Nott'm Forest, we will see a more confident and competent Burnley, led by a new-look midfield of Berge and Aaron Ramsey. It is certainly far too early to make snap judgements about how the Clarets will fare. 

Indeed that is ultimately true of all three promoted clubs. Luton are about par considering their spending power.

Burnley can look forward to easier matches to come. And as for Sheff Utd, only a remarkable double save from Jordan Pickford prevented them from winning a perspective-shifting three points against Everton.