Analysis: Will Chelsea v Spurs be another high-scoring classic?

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 30.

Match analysis: Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur

Entertaining sides make exciting matches, and it feels like Chelsea and Spurs are set up perfectly to produce open, high-scoring encounters.

CHE

19:00

TOT

close

TV Info - Broadcasters

Fourteen goals have been shared across their last three meetings, which have averaged 30 shots per match.

That is 15 per cent higher than the norm in this season’s Premier League.

So, why do these two London rivals serve up such end-to-end encounters? Let’s take a closer look…

Boldness off the ball

Enzo Maresca and Ange Postecoglou demand aggressive pressing when their teams are out of possession, with both head coaches favouring a man-to-man approach.

Regularly forcing mistakes inside the opposition half, it’s a style of play which can bring plenty of rewards.

Spurs rank fourth for high turnovers in 2024/25, while Chelsea have produced the third-most shots from those situations.

Most turnovers per 90 minutes by PL teams 24/25

In a 4-3 win for Chelsea back in December, it was Spurs who scored first, pouncing on a slip by left-back Marc Cucurella.

The image below shows how Spurs engaged with a hostile man-to-man press shortly before the Spaniard fell over.

High-risk strategies

Going man-to-man is also a gamble, especially against the best, most press-resistant sides.

We saw this for Chelsea’s equaliser in December’s meeting when Postecoglou’s high press was skilfully bypassed by the Blues.

In a move that involved keeper Robert Sanchez, Maresca's men cleverly manoeuvred the ball through the thirds, playing around the home side to isolate Jadon Sancho in a 1v1 with Pedro Porro.

Good decoy runs from Enzo Fernandez and Nicolas Jackson then distracted the centre-backs, allowing the winger to cut inside and score.

Highlights from Spurs 3-4 Chelsea

Chelsea also like to mark man-to-man all over the pitch.

It can have a suffocating effect when performed properly, but when one player escapes their marker's attention it will cause issues.

This example (below) shows Son Heung-min drifting inside right-back Moises Caicedo, before playing a one-two with Dominic Solanke.

Having slipped away from his designated marker, Son was put through on goal, almost scoring from the 1v1 situation.

Adding to the risky nature of this style, Maresca and Postecoglou also want their sides to play out from the back.

They can both do this with confidence, but Chelsea and Spurs do also give up plenty of chances from high turnovers.

An issue Postecoglou’s men in particular, this approach brings plenty of risk.

Turnovers against per 90 minutes compared 24/25

Is this approach working against the top teams?

Based on this season’s performances, trying to play in this bold, high-risk manner – with and without the ball - has not worked well for either side against the Premier League's stronger teams.

Too many goals have been leaked.

Chelsea have not kept any clean sheets in their 10 matches against the current top eight teams this season, while Spurs have only kept one in their 12.

In their combined 22 matches against the top eight teams, Chelsea and Spurs have claimed only three victories between them.

Chelsea and Spurs' records v top eight clubs in PL 24/25*

*Stats correct after Matchweek 29

Pace that punishes gaps on the break

While both head coaches want to exert control through possession, especially Maresca, these two teams are probably at their most threatening on the breakaway.

Each forward line is blessed with searing pace, and in the last three meetings between the clubs, we have seen them cause one another headaches with a stream of counter-attacks.

Spurs and Chelsea have scored 17 goals between them from fast breaks this season, so it’s likely we will see chances created at both ends from these situations at Stamford Bridge.

Most fast-break goals by PL teams 24/25

As both Maresca and Postecoglou place such a heavy emphasis on pushing their full-backs into central and advanced areas as a matter of course, there are obvious holes for each team to target on those counters.

Chelsea left-back Cucurella spends a lot of time in attacking midfield areas, and both Spurs full-backs are also encouraged to get involved deep inside opposition territory.

This season's touch maps for Cucurella and Destiny Udogie (below) show how often each player is away from their traditional full-back role.

When play breaks down, both teams will look to raid quickly down the wide channels, drawing central defenders towards the wing.

In terms of fashioning direct attacks, Chelsea are the most prolific side in the Premier League this season. 

Most direct attacks per 90 minutes in PL 24/25 

Expect excitement

While neither side is in top form right now, Chelsea versus Spurs rarely disappoints in terms of goal action.

The Blues have won the last three meetings in a row, but in all of them, Spurs also created plenty of opportunities.

The stats below show the attacking averages for all clubs' Premier League matches this season.

Attacking averages in all Premier League matches 24/25

Below, you can see how the last three Spurs v Chelsea meetings compare with those 2024/25 Premier League averages.

Last three Spurs v Chelsea matches - attacking stats compared 

This fixture certainly has a pattern of being open and end-to-end, reflected in the big chance and expected goals counts being way in excess of what we usually see.

From a tactical perspective, Maresca versus Postecoglou is a match-up that promises more of the same on Thursday.

Even if we don’t get a seven-goal thriller this time, history shows it should be an enjoyable match to watch.

Also in this series