Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 30.
Player analysis: Joao Pedro (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Hardworking, creative, and calm in front of goal, Joao Pedro has a little bit of everything.
That is why Fabian Hurzeler consistently finds a place for him in Brighton & Hove Albion’s starting XI, despite having a plethora of quality forwards to choose from.
Joao Pedro has started 20 Premier League matches this season and he made two of his three substitute outings while returning from injury.
Whether it is leading the line, or playing in behind the centre forward, the Brazil international will be trusted to deliver quality against Aston Villa on Wednesday night.
Penalty king
Since arriving in English football, Joao Pedro has scored 16 of the 17 penalties he has taken in all competitions for Watford and Brighton, sending most opposing goalkeepers the wrong way with his cool, side-footed strikes.
He has a 100 per cent record this season, scoring all three of his penalties, converting successfully against Arsenal, AFC Bournemouth and Fulham.
On each occasion he won the spot-kick himself by drawing fouls inside the box.
Adept at nipping in front of defenders at the last moment, Joao Pedro is actually the most fouled regular striker in the Premier League (42).
And since the start of last season no one in English football has earned more penalties than the 23-year-old.
With this in mind, Villa’s defenders must be very careful with their decision making inside the box.
Penalties won since start of 23/24 (all competitions)
| Player | Total |
| Joao Pedro (BHA) | 9 |
|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon (NEW) | 8 |
| Luis Diaz (LIV), Evanilson (BOU) | 5 |
| Ollie Watkins (AVL), Raheem Sterling (ARS) | 4 |
The only penalty Joao Pedro has missed came against Villa last season, in May 2024, when Robin Olsen dived to his right to make a save.
Brighton's No 9 scored from the rebound though, heading home the only goal of the match.
Clever assists
Leading the line for Hurzeler’s mobile, interchangeable attack works well for Joao Pedro because he is comfortable dropping deep or floating wide to knit moves together.
This often leaves space for the likes of Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh or Georginio Rutter to run into at speed.
Five of his six assists this season came from clever, deft pieces of link play – and his last two were delightful to watch.
This short but smart reverse pass sent Mitoma clear against Southampton at St Mary's.
And when Brighton faced Villa away earlier this season, Joao Pedro teed up Tariq Lamptey perfectly with a quick-flick pass - the second of the Brazilian's two assists in a 2-2 draw.
Capable of sliding precise through-balls too, just as he did when releasing Mitoma and Matt O’Riley to score against Bournemouth and Manchester City respectively, Joao Pedro is a striker that plays with real imagination.
In open play he has created 23 opportunities this season, and nine of those have been ‘big chances’, a team-high for Brighton.
Working hard for the team
If you are going to play under Hurzeler it is a non-negotiable for individuals to apply themselves physically.
The 32-year-old German is very demanding, and in that sense, Joao Pedro is a terrific fit.
Happy to stay on the move, he triggers the press superbly, so Villa’s defensive players will expect to be consistently put under pressure.
On a per 90-minute basis, Joao Pedro - Brighton’s leading scorer with eight goals - ranks highly for final-third pressures, as well as for helping his side turn the ball over in advanced areas.
So many of the Seagulls' attacks stem from pressing, so his role is vital to the way the team performs.
Most pressures made by PL forwards in 24/25*
| Pressures inside final third | Pressures inside final third resulting in turnovers | ||
| Dominic Solanke (TOT) | 28.5 | Dominic Solanke | 5.86 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson (CHE) | 19.19 | Nicolas Jackson | 3.81 |
| Liam Delap (IPS) | 18.87 | Liam Delap | 3.76 |
| Alexander Isak (NEW) | 17.31 | Alexander Isak | 3.76 |
| Joao Pedro (BHA) | 17.07 | Joao Pedro | 3.07 |
*Minimum 20 starts
This graphic (below) provides a good visual representation of the contributions Joao Pedro makes when defending from the front.
Usually occupying the right-sided centre back, Villa defender Ezri Konsa can expect to have Joao Pedro trying to close him down in Wednesday's match.
Joao Pedro's defensive actions 24/25
Should he score more goals?
The Brazilian is just one short of his best-ever Premier League goals tally of nine, achieved last season. Netting at a rate of one goal every 212.88 minutes, he is Brighton's most frequent scorer.
Barring injury, he should comfortably exceed double figures in 2024/25, and moving forward that should be his bare minimum target in every season.
The key for him to add more goals to his game is positioning. More of a natural No 10 than a purpose-built centre forward, he does not get himself into enough prime goalscoring positions.
He showed a poacher’s instinct to snaffle rebound goals against Arsenal and Bournemouth, but it is interesting to note (above) that the only three efforts he has had from inside the six-yard box all resulted in goals.
His challenge now is to occupy that domain, or gamble on making runs into that area with greater frequency.
As someone who converts 53.33 per cent of the big chances that fall his way, his technique and temperament are solid.
In the here and now, Joao Pedro is an excellent front player who suits Hurzeler’s Brighton side perfectly, but there is also scope for better things to come.
Across the next three to five years, the Brazilian should have a major influence at Premier League level.
