Alex Keble analyses why three teams with aspirations of the top four are instead languishing in the bottom half of the table.
Manchester United
Year two of the Erik ten Hag project was supposed to be the moment of lift-off. Instead, across the first four Premier League matches, Man Utd have drifted.
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They performed above expectations last season by finishing third and winning the EFL Cup, and yet Ten Hag’s achievements seemed to owe more to charisma, squad-building and a cultural shift rather than any major tactical construction.
But following a successful summer window, 2023/24 is the moment where Ten Hag moves away from the more individualistic football that he inherited and towards the more complex tactics we expected to see last season.
That is exactly what has happened. The problem appears to be that the players don’t yet seem ready, and the changes – namely a higher press and direct attacking – have exposed personnel issues that threaten to stymie the Dutchman's progress.
Man Utd’s poor start is overstated
Not that we should blow this out of proportion. Four matches is a very small sample size, and not only have United won both their home matches, they could also – with a bit more luck – have won the two difficult fixtures they lost at Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal.
Spurs were outplayed in the first half, but United were wasteful, losing the match but recording a higher Expected Goals (xG) of 2.1 to Spurs' 1.7, while Alejandro Garnacho was millimetres away from scoring what should have been the winning goal at Emirates Stadium last weekend.
Indeed, United’s attacking numbers are relatively stable – and that’s despite Rasmus Hojlund, who looked sharp as a substitute against Arsenal, being out injured.
United's xG, shots, shot-creating actions (SCA), and key passes have all gone up since last season, despite those two tough away matches.
Expected Goals and shots per 90 comparison
| Season | xG/90 | Shots/90 | SCA*/90 | Key passes/90 |
| 2022/23 | 1.78 | 15.5 | 27.7 | 12.6 |
| 2023/24 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 29.8 | 13.8 |
*SCA - shot-creating actions
Higher press exposing midfield brittleness
Nevertheless, there is an important problem for Ten Hag to fix and his central midfield looks out of sorts, seemingly disordered due to the manager’s instructions to press higher up the pitch this season.
This was noticeable from the first fixture, when United were fortunate to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0.
Gary O’Neil’s side were repeatedly able to dribble clean through the middle, effortlessly weaving away from the mass of bodies rushing towards them and attempting 35 take-ons, more than any other team in a Premier League match this season.
Note how many United players are pressing, sporadically, in the first image below, allowing Matheus Cunha to dribble through Lisandro Martinez and create a three-on-two.
This pattern has repeated in every United match. Nottingham Forest’s first goal was a one-on-one direct from a corner, while their second was from a free-kick, won after Brennan Johnson easily broke beyond the midfield.
Look how many United shirts are ahead of the play.
There is no doubt this forms part of a deliberate strategy shift from Ten Hag. United’s PPDA (passes per defensive action, which measures the intensity of a team’s pressing) has dropped from 12.3 last season to 11.0, indicating a surge in pressing.
Their high turnovers have also gone up from 8.7 to 11.0 per match, which is all the more noteworthy given that half of United’s matches have been at Spurs or Arsenal.
The result has been porousness through the lines, with United looking far too open to counter-attacks.
They have faced more attempted take-ons (106) and successful take-ons (58) than any other Premier League team this season, while also ranking fourth for opposition progressive carries, behind only Sheffield United, West Ham United, and Forest.
Ten Hag’s directness is undermining the press
One explanation for United’s poor pressing is that Casemiro, rarely asked to press high at Real Madrid, is struggling to cover the spaces.
Along with Mason Mount adjusting to a new club and Christian Eriksen lacking pace and agility (not unlike Casemiro himself), United don’t have the right midfield to enact this system.
It’s notable Casemiro has made fewer recoveries (6.25 per match) and fewer interceptions (0.75) this season than at any other point in his career.
This should be addressed with the arrival of Sofyan Amrabat from Fiorentina, although he is unavailable against Brighton & Hove Albion this weekend.
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However, potentially just as important is Ten Hag’s unusual tactical profile.
He wants to press high but also to attack very quickly, hence packing the front line with direct runners. This season United are third in the table for direct attacks (11), while in 2022/23, they were top of in this metric by some distance, with 105. No team have had more of their passes intercepted than Man Utd's 45 this season.
Unlike Manchester City, for example, United do not have long periods of possession that suffocate the opposition, push them back, and allow the United players time to get into a good position to counter-press (ie. close the ball down as soon as they lose it).
But Man Utd are slowly improving
However, this might be a little harsh on Ten Hag at such an early stage in the season. For one thing, United were considerably more secure against Arsenal, having chosen not to press the centre-backs and instead hold a steady mid-block.
Plus, United have not played particularly badly since the opening day against Wolves, and with better finishing – their shot accuracy has dropped from 34.9 per cent to 28.1 per cent - they probably would have beaten Spurs.
The margins here are thin, and it is to be expected that Ten Hag’s new midfield will need time to understand their roles.
“Our performance was very good,” Ten Hag said after the loss at Arsenal. “I will not say it was perfect, definitely room for improvement, but if we see compactness, pressing, moving with the ball, make the counters, in possession very calm, we never give Arsenal the opportunity to press us.
“There were a lot of positives, it is logical at this stage of the season there is room for improvement.”
He isn’t wrong. But supporters will have expected a more coherent and high-intensity start to the season, and they may have legitimate fears about the dynamism of Eriksen and Casemiro in a high-pressing team.
One year in, things were supposed to feel a little further along than this.
Also in this series
Part 1: Newcastle United
Part 2: Chelsea