The next four matches, on an island between international breaks, will either consolidate good starts into good seasons or see title hopefuls begin to drift away.
By the middle of November, we will have had 12 rounds of the 2023/24 Premier League season, about one third of the campaign. How the table looks then will have a lasting psychological impact ahead of the long run of matches over winter.
Currently the top four all harbour ambitions of winning the title. Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur are level on points at the top with 20 apiece, with the latter leading on goals scored, but Manchester City and Liverpool are not far behind.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
Alex Keble looks at the fixtures for the top four sides to see how the next stage of the title race could play out.
Spurs: Tests ahead for Postecoglou’s defence
Next four: Fulham (H), Crystal Palace (A), Chelsea (H), Wolves (A)
On the surface, Spurs' four-match run looks fairly tame. They won three of the corresponding four fixtures last season, losing the other 1-0 at Wolverhampton Wanderers, and riding a wave of confidence Spurs certainly won’t fear any of their upcoming opponents – all of whom reside between ninth and 14th as it stands.
See: Why Spurs are the real deal
But these are deceptively tricky matches for a side who have had a bit of luck on the defensive side of things. Ange Postecoglou’s expansive attacking football can be vulnerable to being caught on the break, and Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Wolves are all particularly good at counter-attacks.
Spurs’ total for Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 10.8, only the ninth-best tally in the division, while only seven teams have conceded fewer than the 102 shots they have faced.
While Palace have been weakened by the injury to Eberechi Eze - one of the league’s best counter-attacking threats - Spurs will have to shackle a Wolves team who have surged forward impressively through Pedro Neto, beating Man City at the end of last month.
The most daunting challenge, of course, is the match at home to Chelsea, who after back-to-back Premier League wins are beginning to find their feet under Mauricio Pochettino. His return to Spurs is a huge moment for supporters.
But despite some defensive concerns, Spurs are well placed to continue their good start.
Wolves and Palace have only won two of their combined eight home matches this season, Fulham have had a mixed beginning and Postecoglou will light a fire under his team ahead of their clash with Chelsea.
Arsenal: First difficult trips coming up
Next four: Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (H), Newcastle (A), Burnley (H)
Three of the top four teams face Chelsea in the next four Matchweeks, and first up are Arsenal, fresh from a rousing 1-0 victory over Man City that must be built upon at Stamford Bridge.
To lose that match would sap all the momentum and energy gained from finally felling Pep Guardiola, and yet there is a very real danger of that happening.
Pochettino’s only "Big Six" showdown at Chelsea so far has been a 1-1 draw with Liverpool at the start of the season, in which his high-energy attacking football produced an end-to-end contest of the sort that Arsenal will fear.
But if Arsenal can survive that test, there are easier challenges to follow on home turf.
They won all three of their home matches against the promoted clubs last season, which bodes well for welcoming Sheffield United and Burnley to Emirates Stadium - and indeed, looking at all four of their fixtures over the coming weeks, Arsenal also won at Stamford Bridge and St James' Park in 2022/23.
Even better, their two UEFA Champions League matches are followed by those home fixtures against two of the bottom three sides, easing them back into domestic concerns.
As for the trip to Newcastle United, much will depend upon the hosts’ form leading into it. Eddie Howe’s side have been up and down, although in narrow defeats to Man City and Liverpool this season, they have conceded just 1.9xG (Expected Goals) altogether.
It will likely be a tough, low-scoring match – one of two in Arsenal’s next four fixtures. For that reason, they are likely to drop more points than rivals Spurs.
Man City: Tough spell could compound slump
Next four: Brighton (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (A)
Guardiola welcomes Rodri back to the fold and not a moment too soon. Man City lost all three of their domestic matches during his suspension and back-to-back Premier League fixtures for the first time since December 2018.
Perhaps Rodri’s absence was the only reason for Man City’s decline in form, but the configuration of their central midfield, coupled with a lack of creativity without Kevin De Bruyne, hints at something deeper.
See: What's behind Haaland's drop in form?
We will find out soon enough. Man City have by far the hardest run of matches among the top four, starting with the visit of Brighton & Hove Albion.
That should be a very entertaining match between two great tactical minds, and should City’s confidence have taken a hit, their commitment to high-pressing possession football might fall into the traps that Roberto De Zerbi sets.
That is followed by the short trip to Manchester United. Few teams seem to fear travelling to Old Trafford these days, but understandably things feel different in a local derby – and City lost the corresponding fixture 2-1 last season.
That day, Erik ten Hag sat deep, went man-to-man marking the City midfield and hit on the break, which is almost precisely how Wolves got their recent 2-1 win. This is a banana skin for the champions, despite United’s recent on-field woes.
AFC Bournemouth at home is unlikely to pose a challenge, but the trip to Stamford Bridge might, especially because it falls straight after a Champions League group match (as does the journey to Old Trafford).
Pochettino has won four and drawn five of his 22 previous meetings with Guardiola. That isn’t a good record, but it’s competitive enough to suggest Man City have a game on their hands at the end of this sequence.
It is never wise to doubt Guardiola, a manager who rarely loses two on the trot – and who always bounces back strongly when he does. But this is a difficult run that comes at the worst moment for City.
If ever there was a chance for the other three to find some breathing space, this is it.
Liverpool: Kind run offers chance of top spot
Next four: Everton (H), Forest (H), Luton (A), Brentford (H)
Jurgen Klopp finds himself in the opposite position. The late defeat at Spurs and the 2-2 draw with Brighton last weekend has dampened some of the optimism that had been building at Liverpool, but they have a nice run of matches in which to rediscover their form.
The derby against Everton, mind, is tougher than it looks. Sean Dyche’s side have an xG of 14.7 this season, which is only 0.2 short of Man City’s, having created many chances flying forward on the break.
Should Liverpool’s high defensive line again look a little shaky, Everton – with nine goals in their last four matches in all competitions - will exploit it on the break.
Aside from that, Liverpool are in a strong position, welcoming back Thiago Alcantara and Stefan Bajcetic during a period in which they host Nottingham Forest and Brentford – beaten 6-0 and 1-0 last season – and travel to struggling Luton Town.
Liverpool’s previous title challenges have been built on the momentum gained by striking fear into opponents: as their winning streaks grew, teams sat deeper and deeper, inviting pressure and waiting to be beaten.
That hasn’t happened yet, but it might if Klopp can produce four wins from the next four. If he does, there is a decent chance Liverpool will close that three-point gap to Spurs and go top of the Premier League table.
Also in this series
Part 2: Race for Europe: Who can climb into Champions League spots?