Race for Europe: Who can climb into Champions League spots?

In the opening eight rounds of the 2023/24 Premier League season a new middle class has emerged, seeking out UEFA Champions League football.

Changes in the qualification rules mean the Premier League could receive a fifth Champions League spot this season, and despite the existence of a supposed "Big Six" there are four other clubs who have a realistic shot at grabbing that extra place.

See: More on extra Champions League place

For one of Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, West Ham United or Newcastle United to make it, they will need to put together another strong sequence of results before the November international break in a month's time.

Manchester United and Chelsea have started slowly, but at least one of those super-clubs is surely going to bounce back sooner or later. With that in mind, the clubs currently sitting between fifth and eighth simply cannot afford to relent.

The race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
4	Aston Villa AVL	38	+15	68
5	Spurs TOT	38	+13	66
6	Chelsea CHE	38	+14	63
7	Newcastle NEW	38	+23	60
8	Man Utd MUN	38	-1	60

See the full table

Alex Keble looks at the fixtures to see how the next stage of the race for Europe could play out.

Aston Villa: Dream run offers opportunity

Next four: West Ham (H), Luton (H), Nott'm Forest (A), Fulham (H)

It’s a month that may define just how far Aston Villa can go; a test of whether Unai Emery can sustain juggling European competition with a shot at Champions League qualification.

That’s because Emery could hardly have asked for a kinder run of fixtures. Four winnable matches on the horizon present an unmissable opportunity to stride into winter with a record to rival even those competing for the Premier League title.

Villa have won 10 consecutive Premier League matches at Villa Park and three of their next four fixtures are at home. If that wasn’t encouraging enough, they have the relatively straightforward tasks of hosting Luton Town and Fulham following UEFA Europa Conference League exploits.

The biggest challenge comes first. West Ham are the kind of powerful counter-attacking team who may be able to spring in behind Villa’s infamous defensive line. After all, Emery’s side top the Premier League charts for through-balls played against them (25) and offsides caught (33).

But should they pass that test, there is little to fear. While Nottingham Forest are unbeaten at home this season and drew 1-1 in this fixture last season - before Emery’s arrival - Steve Cooper’s side are firmly lodged in the bottom half, as are all three of Villa’s opponents after West Ham.

Ollie Watkins’ form is improving substantially. Nicolas Zaniolo has settled quickly. John McGinn is playing at the top of his game. Emery’s squad rotations have been seamless so far.

There is little reason to think Villa will slip up before the next break in mid-November.

Brighton: Tricky road trips ahead

Next four: Man City (A), Fulham (H), Everton (A), Sheff Utd (H)

Brighton, on the other hand, have two away trips that could extend a run of poor form that has perhaps gone under the radar.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have won just one of their last six matches in all competitions, a sequence that includes a 6-1 defeat to Aston Villa and a surprise loss at home to AEK Athens.

In total, Brighton have conceded 15 goals in those six matches at a rate of 2.5 per match. That is hardly ideal preparation for a trip to Manchester City when domestic football returns.

It goes without saying that Man City are heavy favourites, and yet after Pep Guardiola’s consecutive Premier League defeats it might be the perfect time to play them. De Zerbi’s tactics will certainly make for an entertaining match, even if ultimately Brighton’s chances of taking points are slim.

Going to Goodison Park could also be a deceptively difficult challenge. Brighton were beaten 5-1 by Everton towards the end of last season, when Sean Dyche paved the way for a low-block, quick-counter strategy that was copied by Villa in their 6-1 victory over Brighton earlier this season.

Considering that Everton have an xG (Expected Goals) total of 14.7 this season, just 0.2 short of Man City’s, and have scored nine goals in their last four matches in all competitions, Brighton may struggle again.

Thankfully, their Europa League double against Ajax is followed by their two very winnable home matches against Fulham and Sheffield United, but nevertheless Brighton face an uphill battle if they are to improve on their September and October results.

West Ham: Can Hammers fight on three fronts?

Next four: Aston Villa (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Nott'm Forest (H)

As already mentioned, David Moyes will hope to exploit Villa’s high defensive line and end the hosts’ 10-match winning streak at home in the Premier League. There is certainly a lot riding on it for West Ham.

Their next four matches are the most difficult of the four clubs analysed here, each one a potential pitfall as the matches pile up for West Ham. They have seven matches in a gruelling 22-day period after the international break, including two in the Europa League and an EFL Cup tie at home to Arsenal.

A deep dive into West Ham’s start suggests the next month might not go as planned.

West Ham have ridden their luck a little and their high league position partly reflects the fact they have already played (and beaten) both Sheffield United and Luton. Moyes’ side have faced the second-most shots in the league, with 147, and had the third-highest Expected Goals Against (xGA), with 16.3.

Their defensive record is unlikely to improve against free-scoring Villa or an improving Everton side, whose creativity we highlighted above. What’s more, Brentford away is the kind of thorny fixture where Moyes’s pragmatic approach comes unstuck.

By the time they get to that fourth match, they might just need an emphatic win to reset themselves.

Are West Ham really in the hunt for fifth, or have their first eight matches provided a false narrative? We will know by the middle of next month.

Newcastle: Is another dip around the corner?

Next four: Crystal Palace (H), Wolves (A), Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A)

Newcastle’s early wobble, when they lost three consecutive league matches against very strong opposition, appears to be behind them: they have won five of their last seven in all competitions, remaining undefeated throughout.

But there is reason to think another downturn could be around the corner, not least because their Premier League performances last season were streaky.

They tended to win in bursts before going on winless sequences: six in a row between August and September, and five in a row between January and March, before winning just once in their final five of the campaign.

More importantly, like West Ham they face a run of seven matches in 22 days after the break, their four Premier League matches being interrupted by a crucial – and energy-sapping – double bill against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.

Newcastle were brilliant in a 4-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain earlier this month but it should be noted they tired in the following match at West Ham, conceding an 89th-minute equaliser to draw 2-2.

Fatigue is likely to play a part again, especially with matches coming thick and fast, including an EFL Cup tie at Man Utd at the beginning of November.

Worse still, Newcastle only took three points (winning none) from the four corresponding Premier League fixtures last season.

Eddie Howe has built a fierce defence and their attack has a depth that was lacking last season, so Newcastle may well come through this period still pushing for the top four. But they’ve got it tougher than most.

Also in this series

Part 1: The title race: How will top four handle their next tests?