In-form Newcastle: How they've recovered from slow start

Alex Keble looks at in-form Newcastle United and discusses if they can improve on their fourth-placed finish from last season.

Newcastle United

In our fast-moving Premier League, it doesn’t take much to be given the "crisis club" label.

When Newcastle were beaten 3-1 by Brighton & Hove Albion at the start of September, the siren went off and pundits everywhere began searching for answers as to why Eddie Howe’s side had only won three points from their first four matches.

In retrospect it’s fairly obvious. After beating Aston Villa 5-1 on the opening weekend, they faced Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton in their next three. Not only are they eminently losable fixtures, Newcastle were only narrowly defeated 1-0 by City and were leading Liverpool until the 81st minute.

Certainly, Newcastle’s form since has proven it was just a quirk of the fixture computer that had them in the bottom half going into the international break.

Since then, Newcastle have won four out of five in the Premier League with an 89th-minute West Ham United equaliser the only thing denying them a 100 per cent record in the last six weeks.

Throw in a famous 4-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, and all of a sudden, the narrative has changed.

Ruthless goalscoring behind Newcastle’s good form

Newcastle are not a side to necessarily dominate the opposition - their 54 per cent possession average is the eighth highest in the division. They are also not among the most creative, with their 25.2 shot-creating actions per 90 the 10th highest, but nevertheless they are scoring for fun.

Howe’s team top the Premier League charts for goals scored with 24, and have a competition-leading Expected Goals (xG) of 19.7. While the numbers are a little skewed by their 8-0 victory over Sheffield United – an eight-goal margin is always an outlier – Newcastle are clearly ruthless in front of goal.

Despite being 10th in the league for total shots (125), only Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton have had more shots on target (55), giving Newcastle the best shot-on-target percentage in the division at 44 per cent.

Their 18.9 per cent shot conversion is the best, Newcastle have scored the most "big chances" with 20, and their 52.6 per cent "big chance" conversion rate leads the way.

One obvious explanation for this is the clinical finishing of Alexander Isak, who already has six Premier League goals this season. His goals-per-shot ratio has risen from 0.16 to 0.29 in 2023/24.

Similarly Callum Wilson, with five Premier League goals from only 3.7 full 90 minute appearances, has been razor-sharp: his shot-on-target percentage has risen from 44.3 per cent to 68.8 per cent this season.

Wilson's goal v Crystal Palace

There may also be a slice of luck involved. Opposition errors leading to shots versus Newcastle have gone up from 0.32 to 0.89 per match, representing a tripling of defenders putting their team-mates in trouble.

What’s more, Newcastle are bottom of the chart in Opta’s measure of opposition post-shot Expected Goals (measuring the quality of the shots taken) minus goals allowed, at -2.1.

That means that Newcastle, more than anyone else - and to the value of around two goals - have either been lucky with their shots or faced poor-quality goalkeeping.

Longstaff’s introduction helps create steady possession

Before the first international break, Newcastle’s central midfield did not look particularly stable. Sandro Tonali’s arrival had changed Bruno Guimaraes’ role and the team didn’t quite have the same balance.

But beginning with the 1-0 win over Brentford, Sean Longstaff returned to the side, and with his introduction, Newcastle regained some control.

Longstaff’s average of 6.17 progressive passes per 90 is significantly higher than Tonali’s 3.88, while he also recovers the ball better (6.0 per 90 compared to 4.1 per 90).

Longstaff's goal v Crystal Palace

Beyond Longstaff, it would appear that Howe has deliberately attempted to play a slower possession game this season.

Newcastle are fourth in the Premier League for build-up attacks, with 32, which is already more than half of their entire total (63) from 2022/23, when they ranked 11th.

This more measured control of the ball is also captured in their carries numbers: up substantially from 316.3 per match last season to 405.2 per match in 2023/24.

Intensity issues

There are still, however, some flaws to be ironed out, and on the defensive side of things Newcastle remain a little vulnerable; their strong run of three goals conceded from the last eight matches in all competitions is mainly explained by the low quality of opposition.

Earlier in the season, much was made of a perceived lack of intensity to Newcastle’s work off the ball, and the numbers indicate this is still a cause for concern.

Newcastle’s PPDA (passes per defensive action, which measures the intensity of a team’s pressing) has risen from 10.5 to 11.5 this season.

What’s more, their number of interceptions has dropped from 8.8 per 90 to 5.4 per 90.

Howe’s team aren’t as quick to the ball, which is allowing the opposition to pierce through them more than they could last year. The percentage of dribblers tackled has dropped from 47.8 per cent to 40.1 per cent, which indicates it is easier to drive past Newcastle defenders too slow in the challenge, while the number of opposition through balls have nearly doubled, from 1.3 to 2.4 per 90.

Correcting this won’t be easy. Unlike last season, Newcastle must contend with the tiring schedule of midweek Champions League football, which will only weaken their defensive instincts.

New signings out of action

On top of that, their summer transfer window looks worse with each passing week.

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Tonali is widely expected to face a lengthy ban, an injury to Harvey Barnes keeps him out until January and Tino Livramento, who was out for 400 days with a knee issue and played only 28 senior minutes post-recovery before his move to Newcastle, is yet to start a Premier League match.

That leaves Newcastle with the same squad as last year, but playing more midweek fixtures and facing increased competition from the likes of Villa.

Repeating last season’s top-four finish is a big ask. For Howe to defy expectations again, he needs to up the intensity – and hope his forwards continue their free-scoring form.