Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) leads a host of very appealing alternatives to Erling Haaland (£14.0m) for the captaincy in Gameweek 10 of Fantasy Premier League.
The Manchester City forward’s huge 85 per cent ownership will ensure he remains the most-selected armband pick for his derby clash with Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Yet Salah has outscored Haaland in six of the last eight Gameweeks ahead of Liverpool’s home match with Nottingham Forest.
FPL experts: Who's the best captain for Gameweek 10?
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.3m) and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£8.5m) also have kind home fixtures, facing promoted pair Luton Town and Sheffield United respectively.
Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min (£9.5m), meanwhile, visits Crystal Palace having averaged 10.0 points per match since being moved up front in Gameweek 4.
Who’s been the biggest threat?
The underlying statistics show a dramatic drop off in goal threat from Haaland recently.
He has managed a mere five shots and four shots in the box in his last four appearances, despite facing Nott'm Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Brighton & Hove Albion in that spell.
Salah and Watkins, by contrast, have each produced at least three times both those totals, with the Villa forward’s 15 shots in the box placing top in the analysis.
Son also impresses here, matching Watkins’ four big chances and eight shots on target.
Haaland also fares the worst when it comes to creativity here.
Indeed, Salah, Watkins, Son and Saka have all made eight key passes in their last four appearances, more than twice the Norwegian’s tally of three.
Stats over last four Gameweeks
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins | 15 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| Salah | 15 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| Son | 13 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Saka | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Haaland | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
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Who has the best home/away form?
The home and away statistics are far more encouraging for Haaland.
Man City’s talisman has had more shots, shots in the box and big chances in away matches than Salah, Watkins or Saka have managed in home fixtures.
The Liverpool star has matched Haaland’s 10 shots on target here, with Watkins, Saka and Son tied on seven each.
Meanwhile, Saka is the standout performer for key passes; his 16 in home matches places second among all players in Fantasy and is more than twice Haaland’s seven on the road.
Stats compared in home/away matches 23/24
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland (A) | 22 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 1 |
| Salah (H) | 18 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Watkins (H) | 15 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Son (A) | 15 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| Saka (H) | 12 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 2 |
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Assessing the opponents’ defence
Assessing the opposition data in a similar manner can help determine the armband decision.
The team numbers over their last four matches lifts the appeal of both Saka and Watkins.
Saka’s visitors Sheff Utd have conceded 15 goals and 19 big chances in their last four outings, both more than any other side.
Watkins’ opponents Luton, meanwhile, have been somewhat fortunate to only concede six goals by contrast.
The Hatters rank among the bottom three clubs for conceding both shots in the box and big chances in that run.
Haaland, on the other hand, faces a Man Utd side who place among the best two defences for those two statistics in this period.
Opponents' stats last four Gameweeks
| Team | Goals conceded | Clean sheets | Shots in box conceded | Big chances conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 15 | 0 | 48 | 19 |
| Luton | 6 | 0 | 50 | 15 |
| Nott'm Forest | 5 | 1 | 35 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 4 | 3 | 40 | 10 |
| Man Utd | 3 | 1 | 24 | 4 |
What about the opponents’ home/away form?
Watkins’ armband appeal is raised by Luton’s dire defensive record.
Away from home, they have conceded league-high totals of 75 shots in the box and 23 big chances.
By contrast, Salah’s opponents Nott’m Forest have conceded under half the number of shots in the box than Luton.
Nonetheless, they have allowed 12 big chances on their travels – the same number as Sheff Utd.
Crystal Palace’s home form undoubtedly dents Son’s appeal, with the Eagles conceding only three goals and seven big chances, at Selhurst Park.
Man Utd have allowed only six big chances at Old Trafford, almost a quarter of the number Luton have conceded on their travels.
Opponents' home/away form 23/24
| Team | Goals conceded | Clean sheets | Shots in box conceded | Big chances conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton (A) | 11 | 0 | 75 | 23 |
| Sheff Utd (A) | 9 | 0 | 54 | 12 |
| Nott'm Forest (A) | 7 | 2 | 37 | 12 |
| Man Utd (H) | 7 | 1 | 42 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace (H) | 3 | 2 | 36 | 7 |
So, who’s the best captain?
From a form perspective, Haaland’s numbers, combined with Man Utd’s, indicate there are better armband options in Gameweek 10.
Salah, Watkins and Saka all look superior picks, with all three yet to blank in a home fixture this season.
Luton’s statistics offer plenty of encouragement for the Villa star and there would be little surprise if he claimed a third straight double-figure score at home.
However, Salah’s involvement in big chances at home may ultimately sway the captaincy decision in his favour.
The Egyptian has had seven such opportunities at Anfield and also created a further four; essentially, his total of 11 matches Watkins and Saka combined.
Also in this series
Part 1: Is Salah now a better pick than Haaland in Fantasy?
Part 2: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 10 Ones to watch
Part 3: FPL expert Gianni Buttice's Gameweek 10 Wildcard squad
Part 4: FPL experts' must-haves for a Gameweek 10 Wildcard
Part 5: Keep or sell Son and Maddison in Fantasy?
Part 6: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 10 Differentials
Part 7: Who is the best budget midfielder to own in Fantasy?
Part 8: FPL experts: Who is the best budget midfielder?
Part 9: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 10