Gordon or Mbeumo: Who is the better pick in Fantasy?

Managers in Fantasy Premier League are making moves in midfield, with Anthony Gordon (£5.9m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.0m) the two most-bought players in Gameweek 14.

Gordon continued his impressive campaign with a goal, an assist and 13 points against Chelsea on Saturday, while Mbeumo blanked for a second straight match. But those blanks have come against Liverpool and Arsenal, and the Cameroonian has an enticing run of matches ahead.

So, who is the better pick?

Both have averaged 5.8 points per match this season, with Brentford’s Mbeumo placing fourth among midfielders thanks to six goals and three assists in 13 outings.

Newcastle United’s Gordon has scored five goals and also supplied five assists over his 12 appearances. 

Mbeumo v Gordon in 2023/24 FPL

Who's performed better at home?

Gordon boasts a flawless record at St James’ Park in 2023/24, delivering attacking returns in all seven such matches for Newcastle.

The winger has been involved in 50 per cent of his side’s goals in home matches when selected, producing four goals and four assists. He has also earned an extra point for a clean sheet on five occasions to total 52 points.

Gordon's GW9 goal v Palace

That places Gordon second among all players in 2023/24 Fantasy for points at home, bettered only by the 63 points of Mohamed Salah (£13.0m).

While Mbeumo hasn’t been able to rival Gordon in this area, his 39 points are just five behind the 44 of Erling Haaland (£14.0m), who has blanked in two of his six home appearances.

FPL output in home matches 23/24

However, the underlying numbers tell a somewhat different story.

Mbeumo has the clear advantage over Gordon for almost every major attacking statistic in home matches. Indeed, his 21 shots, seven big chances and nine shots on target all rank among the top five players this season, showing his big potential for goals.

Mbeumo's GW4 goal v Bournemouth

While Gordon fares poorly in this comparison, he has still been one of Newcastle’s major goal threats at St James’ Park. His 15 shots, eight shots in the box and seven shots on target all place among their top three players.

Gordon’s ability to create big chances is the one area where he excels here, leading by three to one in home matches. However, it’s fair to say he’s been very fortunate to earn four assists from only six key passes.

Underlying stats in home matches

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Who's performed better in away matches?

Mbeumo’s output has been near-identical in away matches, with a total of 37 points compared with his tally of 39 at home.

Notably, he is even more important to the Bees on the road, with his goal involvement rising from 42 per cent in home matches to 57 per cent on the road.

Gordon’s form, on the other hand, could barely be more contrasting from his displays at St James’ Park. He has collected only 17 points in his five away appearances, blanking on four occasions in total this season.

His goal and assist over that spell means he has been involved in only 18 per cent of the Magpies’ goals in away matches when selected this campaign.

FPL output in away matches

The underlying numbers further emphasise Mbeumo’s dominance over Gordon in away matches.

He has produced more than twice the number of shots in the box and key passes than the Magpies' wide man and betters him by five big chances to one.

Again, though, Gordon’s big chances created is the one factor in his favour, which boosts his prospects of assists.

Underlying stats in away matches

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Who has the better fixtures?

The increasing appeal of both Mbeumo and Gordon is also lifted by favourable upcoming runs of opponents.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), five of Brentford’s next seven matches score only two. 

 
Managers must remember, though, that the Bees and Manchester City have a Blank Gameweek 18 (BGW18).
 
Four of Newcastle’s next six matches score just two in the FDR, although this also comes with a caveat; three of those encounters are away from home, which could reduce Gordon's output.

Fixture difficulty ratings compared

So, who is the better pick?

Mbeumo’s superior goal threat is among a number of factors that make him a better pick than Gordon.
 
The Brentford star is far more consistent in terms of the difference between his home and away output, and he is also on penalties while Ivan Toney (£7.9m) remains absent. 
 
He has played every minute of the first 13 Gameweeks, which means he is very unlikely to be substituted during the busy upcoming festive period.
 
Mbeumo can immediately reward managers against Luton Town, Brighton & Hove Albion and Sheffield United in the next three Gameweeks.
 
Nonetheless, Newcastle’s fixtures from Gameweek 17-19 also give Gordon the chance to continue offering outstanding value in Fantasy. 
 
The Magpies have home fixtures against Fulham and Nottingham Forest on either side of a visit to Luton in BGW18, which could make him a key asset for managers looking to navigate that reduced round of matches.

View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 14 in Fantasy Premier League