After a weekend of Premier League drama, Alex Keble looks at key talking points and tactical lessons.
De Bruyne puts Man City in control of title race
Kevin De Bruyne’s goal and assist off the bench has rewritten the narrative arc of the 2023/24 Premier League season.
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That’s how it felt in the aftermath of Manchester City’s win, at least. Pep Guardiola’s side are just two points off the top – and they’ve got into that position despite their best player being out all season.
De Bruyne is back and everything has changed. These are ominous times for their title rivals.
Then again, for Arsenal and Liverpool fans looking for a more optimistic view, De Bruyne won’t often find quite as much room as he did on Saturday.
Newcastle United, fatigued by their European excursions, are increasingly decompressed between their defensive and midfield lines, and Guardiola’s tweaked formation worked well to exploit that fact throughout the 90 minutes, as our analysis highlighted.
But it was only when De Bruyne came on that Man City really took advantage. Unsurprisingly, De Bruyne had been watching closely from the bench and, noticing where the space was, he took up central positions in the final 30 minutes, rather than leaning out to the right as he ordinarily would.
It’s that kind of tactical intelligence that makes De Bruyne one of the best players the Premier League has ever seen – and that makes Man City title favourites.
His creativity could single-handedly get Man City over the line in stifling matches like the 2-1 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers or 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, suggesting another string of wins is on the horizon.
And with Liverpool losing Mohamed Salah to the Africa Cup of Nations, you would expect Man City to make up that two-point gap by the start of February. Once top, Guardiola never loses his grip.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
Another lost lead shows Burnley must adapt
Luton Town’s controversial late equaliser was described as “ridiculous” and “bizarre” by Burnley manager Vincent Kompany, who therefore won’t be blaming his players for another two points dropped.
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Nevertheless that goal forms part of a wider pattern for Burnley. They have dropped 18 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, which is the second-most behind Brentford, who have dropped 20 points.
Throughout the campaign pundits have argued about whether Burnley’s commitment to an expansive possession game is admirable or naive, but this doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing debate.
Kompany’s tactics have consistently given Burnley the opener. If only they could adapt mid-game, becoming more conservative through thornier patches and riding the momentum shifts that occur at 1-0 up, then Burnley could have their cake and eat it.
It isn’t that Kompany’s football is inherently good or bad for Burnley at Premier League level, rather his team need to get smarter at changing their tactical approach during matches.
Even the very best teams change tack depending on the game state, but Burnley – winning just two of the last seven league matches in which they have taken the lead, drawing two and losing three – aren’t managing to do so.
They are running out of time to learn. Of their three wins this season only one, a 2-0 success at Fulham, was against a team who were in the Premier League last season. Thankfully Burnley get another shot at Fulham soon, squeezed in between tough matches against Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal.
They need to do the double over Fulham or face being cut adrift at the bottom long before the run-in begins.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | -18 | 32 |
| 18 |
Luton
LUT
|
38 | -33 | 26 |
| 19 |
Burnley
BUR
|
38 | -37 | 24 |
| 20 |
Sheffield Utd
SHU
|
38 | -69 | 16 |
Injury-hit Spurs show value of a well-coached system
Although a lot of talk following the draw at Old Trafford seemed to focus on Manchester United’s absence of a grand plan, that viewpoint misses Erik ten Hag’s increasing reliance on a counter-attacking strategy.
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He wants to attack quickly and directly via wingers Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho, and against a possession-based side like Tottenham Hotspur, he is happy to concede possession, knowing that his wingers will find space behind the Spurs full-backs.
In Ten Hag’s defence, that’s exactly what happened, and had Scott McTominay not missed a simple header in the dying moments, the Man Utd manager could have claimed a tactical victory.
Nevertheless, Spurs were the more coherent side, and indeed Ten Hag’s conservative tactics inherently admit inferiority; United remain formless and unstructured when in possession, hence Ten Hag’s shift to a simpler vision that relies upon old-fashioned pace on the flanks.
To appreciate the value of taking a progressive stance, and of coaching an in-possession shape in such fine-tuned detail, note the difference between United and a Spurs team ravaged by injury and players away on international duty.
Ange Postecoglou’s players know where their next pass will go. They have patterns, shapes and set-plays designed on the training ground that can be enacted instinctively on the field, which is why they look just as fluent and confident even without Son Heung-min, Dejan Kulusevski, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr.
Players can be moved in and out of the team and the cogs keep moving. By contrast, Man Utd players always seem to be improvising, each player having to calculate their next pass.
That means they lack the safety and security of a muscle-memory pass when the going gets tough – and it leaves high-profile pundits continually scratching their heads, wondering when and how things will finally come together under Ten Hag.
Out-battled Villa have an away-day problem
It is harsh to be critical of an Aston Villa side flying so high in the table, but having won only five points from their last four Premier League matches, Unai Emery will know there are minor problems to be solved.
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The biggest one is their away form. Villa have only dropped two points at home, winning 28 from 10 matches, but have picked up just 15 from 11 contests on the road, which is the seventh-best in the division.
Emery’s side won’t challenge for the title, and they might even struggle to maintain their place in the UEFA Champions League spots unless they can find a way to play with greater confidence and incision away from Villa Park.
The goalless draw at Everton was typical of their issues on the road. Sean Dyche’s side were bullish and powerful, often out-battling Villa in central midfield, which meant Emery’s ultra-narrow formation was nullified.
The Villa head coach had John McGinn and Moussa Diaby forming a box midfield with Boubacar Kamara and Douglas Luiz, and when it failed to create clear-cut chances, he doubled down on narrow attacking lines, introducing Youri Tielemans and moving to a 4-2-2-2 that contained no wingers at all.
Only late on did Villa start using the full width of the pitch as Matty Cash came on to swing crosses into Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran, but nothing Emery tried seemed to work.
Ultimately this was not a bad point for Villa, and a more positive spin would be to say the visitors kept only their second away clean sheet of the season. Given that Emery had never previously drawn a match 0-0 as a Premier League manager, finally doing so in his 97th encounter, most away clean sheets will end in Villa wins.
After all, this was only the third time this season Villa have failed to score in a Premier League match.
Palmer puts Chelsea into European contention
It’s almost unbelievable that Chelsea are in the hunt for European football, but after Cole Palmer’s penalty gave the Blues their third consecutive Premier League win, they are now level on points with Brighton & Hove Albion and just three behind West Ham United in sixth.
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Throughout the campaign Mauricio Pochettino’s side have looked better than their results, often playing with tactical dexterity between the boxes. The problem has simply been scoring goals.
That hasn’t exactly gone away. Chelsea managed just two shots on target against Fulham, their joint-fewest of the season to date and the same as they managed in the 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace that started this winning sequence.
Chelsea also scored only once from an Expected Goals (xG) of 2.2, making this the seventh time this season that Pochettino’s men have underperformed against their xG by 1.0 or more.
Their sudden upturn in form, then, has little to do with improvements, but rather reflects an easier run of matches; Beating Palace 2-1, Luton Town 3-2 and Fulham 1-0 are all teams that Chelsea would expect to defeat comfortably.
The win on Saturday was anything but comfortable, requiring a moment of magic from Palmer to break the deadlock. His pass through to Raheem Sterling, who was fouled for a first-half penalty, was the standout moment of an otherwise uninspiring game.
With a home match against Villa in the FA Cup fourth round and a trip to Liverpool up next in the league, Chelsea will need to up their game if this winning streak is to continue.