The Scout assesses the form of the second most-owned player in Fantasy Premier League, Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), who has only one goal and two assists in his last seven outings.
Watkins can now be found in a hefty 56 per cent of squads partly due to Erling Haaland’s (£13.9m) current spell on the sidelines for Manchester City.
Yet the Villa star has done little to justify that collective show of faith recently, returning 25 points in his last seven matches.
Indeed, although he has already played his Gameweek 21 match, Watkins is only the joint-ninth top-scoring forward from Gameweek 15 onwards, level with Brighton & Hove Albion's Joao Pedro (£5.5m) and Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£4.9m).
That stuttering output has come at a time when AFC Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke (£7.1m) has strengthened his claim for a place in managers’ starting line-ups.
The Cherries striker has scored five goals to amass 34 points.
Crucially, Solanke has achieved this in two fewer matches than Watkins; Bournemouth have still to play in Gameweek 21, while their Gameweek 17 encounter with Luton Town was abandoned.
Top-scoring forwards, GW15-21
| Player | Pts |
|---|---|
| Solanke, Cunha | 34 |
| Wood | 33 |
| Adebayo | 30 |
| Jimenez | 29 |
| Alvarez, Amdouni, Gabriel Jesus | 26 |
| Joao Pedro, Mateta, Watkins | 25 |
The underlying statistics show why Solanke has been a big success of late.
His 23 shots in the box were at least seven more than any other forward, helping him convert 20 per cent of his opportunities.
The numbers also show that Watkins has still boasted one of the strongest goal threats of any forward over the last seven Gameweeks.
His total of 20 shots and 16 shots in the box both placed second in his position in Fantasy.
What’s noticeable, though, is a lack of gilt-edged chances for the Villa striker, with his one big chance the fewest in the assessment.
Despite taking 20 shots, Watkins has managed only six shots on target and converted five per cent of those efforts.
Newcastle United's Alexander Isak (£7.6m) ranks top among forwards for big chances, with nine in six appearances, helping him score three goals.
The Swede’s nine shots on target sit joint-first with Joao Pedro, Man City's Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) and Fulham's Raul Jimenez (£5.2m).
Forwards goal threat compared, GW15-21
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Goals | Goal conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solanke | 23 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 20% |
| Watkins | 16 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5% |
| Joao Pedro | 16 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 11.1% |
| Isak | 15 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 20% |
| Alvarez | 14 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 10.5% |
| Jimenez | 14 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 23.5% |
| Nunez | 14 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6.3% |
| Calvert-Lewin | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0% |
How does Watkins' form compare with earlier this season?
Crucially, Watkins’ recent output fares poorly when compared with his early-season displays.
The Villa forward averaged 6.8 points per match (ppm) in the opening 14 Gameweeks, scoring eight goals and assisting a further six. Since then, though, he has dropped to 3.6ppm across the subsequent seven matches.
Assessing the underlying numbers helps paint a clearer picture of Watkins’ woes.
At first glance, it seems little has changed in terms of frequency.
In the table below, Watkins played 14 matches in the first period and took 41 shots, while he played seven matches in the second period and took 20 shots. His shots in the box follow a similar ratio of two-to-one across the two timescales.
However, Watkins’ drop in big chances is remarkable – down from 15 in his opening 14 outings to only one in his last seven.
His accuracy has also suffered, with his 18 shots on target three times the total of his six from Gameweek 15 onwards.
Watkins' goal threat assessed
| Time | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW1-14 | 41 | 40 | 15 | 18 | 8 |
| GW15-21 | 20 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
The creativity numbers also show a drop off for Watkins recently.
He produced 23 key passes in the opening 14 Gameweeks, nearly triple the total of eight in the next period. Essentially, his minutes per key pass have slowed from 53 to 79, which is somewhat concerning for a player with a league-high 11 assists.
As well as having 15 big chances, Watkins also supplied his team-mates with four such opportunities in the opening time frame.
This means he was involved in 19 big chances in the first 14 Gameweeks, compared with a mere three in his subsequent seven outings.
Clearly, Watkins is struggling to get into the same dangerous positions to profit from either goals or assists, and such a marked decline has to be concerning for his owners in Fantasy over the long term.
Watkins' creativity assessed
| Time | Key passes | Big chances created | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1-14 | 23 | 4 | 6 |
| GW15-21 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
So, what should Watkins owners do?
Each manager’s formation in Fantasy is likely to help determine what to do with Watkins.
Haaland is a must-have as soon as he is available, regardless of what formation you are playing.
For those using a 3-5-2 set-up, the statistics show that Solanke has the superior goal threat to be the best partner for Haaland.
Crucially, the Bournemouth forward also offers a saving of almost £2.0m over Watkins and will have a Double Gameweek later in the season when his home match against Luton is rescheduled.
While replacing Watkins is likely to be less of an immediate priority for those playing a 3-4-3 formation right now, his huge drop in big chance involvement suggests he could be the forward to use as a makeweight to target Double Gameweek assets such as Brentford’s Ivan Toney (£7.9m), who plays twice in Gameweek 25.
If they can avoid rotation, Isak or Joao Pedro both have the form and fixtures to offer worthwhile replacements for Watkins in a 3-4-3, lining up alongside Haaland and Solanke.