FPL long view: Newcastle stars can thrive from Gameweek 23

Newcastle United will soon enter a fine run of opponents that can lift the output of their key players in Fantasy Premier League.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), eight of the Magpies’ 10 matches from Gameweek 23 onwards score only two, giving them the chance to profit at both ends of the pitch.

Newcastle's matches GW23-32

Who are Newcastle's best performers this season?

Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) approaches the upcoming period as Newcastle's top-scoring player in Fantasy.

The winger’s goal against Manchester City in Gameweek 21 took him into seventh place in the overall player standings on 104 points, eclipsing his previous career-high of 100 points in 2021/22 Fantasy.

Despite a run of seven blanks in his last eight outings, Kieran Trippier (£6.7m) places second to Gordon on 86 points.

The right-back has seven assists, six clean sheets and 18 bonus points and also ranks second among defenders in Fantasy.

Alexander Isak (£7.6m) has proven a key performer after returning from injury recently.

The forward has climbed to sixth in the forward standings on the back of goals against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool and Man City in the last three Gameweeks.

Newcastle's top-scoring players in 23/24

*Midfielders earn one point per clean sheet compared with the four of defenders

Before assessing the underlying numbers, a look at Newcastle’s season so far shows they are far more reliable in both defence and attack when playing at St James’ Park.

They have a league-leading six clean sheets in home matches compared with only one in 10 road trips.

Eddie Howe’s men have scored 25 goals at home, the third-best record in the league, but have netted only 16 times in away matches. 

Newcastle's season assessed

How have Newcastle's players fared home/away?

Their home/away form has to be factored into any analysis of Newcastle’s prospects in order to get a better idea of their overall reliability as assets.

In Gordon’s case, in particular, this proves to be very illuminating.

The 22-year-old has been a force of nature at home this season, producing six goals, five assists and just a single blank in 11 appearances.

Indeed, Gordon is the second top-scoring player in Fantasy in home matches in 2023/24, with his 76 points bettered only by the 94 of Mohamed Salah (£13.1m).

But it is an entirely different matter when Newcastle are on the road. Gordon has managed just one goal, two assists and 28 points in his nine appearances.

Among midfielders, he ranks joint-36th alongside Fulham’s Bobby De Cordova-Reid (£5.3m) and Brentford’s Mathias Jensen (£5.4m).

Gordon's home/away displays compared

Although Newcastle’s defensive frailties on the road have proven costly for Trippier, it’s worth noting he has more attacking returns in away matches than Gordon, by four to three.

In terms of points distribution across home/away, Isak’s output is the most encouraging of the Magpies’ top performers.

There’s clearly far less reliance for St James’ Park returns in the Swede’s case, with four of his 10 goals scored in away matches.

When selected, Isak has been involved in 67 per cent of Newcastle’s away goals compared with the 23 per cent of Gordon.

Isak's home/away displays compared

Notably, Callum Wilson (£7.8m) ranks joint-top with Isak for points on the road.

Although that highlights Howe’s frustrating tactic of rotating his central strikers, it also shows they are more focused on getting the ball to their forwards in such encounters, rather than out wide.

Newcastle's top-scoring players home/away

Who has the greatest potential for goals & assists?

Gordon has boasted the greatest potential for goals than any Newcastle player, producing 44 shots in his 20 appearances.

His 15.9 per cent goal conversion rate is also encouraging and is certainly sustainable over the remainder of the campaign.

However, Isak’s numbers clearly look the most appealing in the analysis.

The Swede has a team-high 10 goals, converting an impressive 27 per cent of his shots. Isak leads Gordon by 21 big chances to nine, despite playing 500+ minutes fewer than the winger.

Newcastle's top goal threats

When it comes to creativity, Trippier is far and away the Magpies’ best player.

The right-back has supplied 54 key passes, at least 26 more than any team-mate, and a total that is bettered only by the 55 of Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) this season.

Although Gordon has managed 22 key passes by contrast, his ability to supply top-quality scoring opportunities means he has mirrored Trippier for both big chances created and assists, with 10 and seven respectively.

Newcastle's top creators

How do Newcastle's defenders compare with Trippier for goal threat?

Assessing the defenders in isolation offers a better perspective on the alternatives to Trippier.

The right-back’s set-piece duties are the reason for his limited shot count here, with all six of his efforts produced from outside the box.

Although Fabian Schar (£5.2m) leads the way here for total shots, only nine of his 19 have come from inside the box.

By contrast, both Sven Botman (£4.5m) and Dan Burn’s (£4.4m) goal threat is limited exclusively to inside the box due to their impact at free-kicks and corners. All seven of Botman’s shots in the box have come from set-pieces, as have nine of Burn’s 11.

Indeed, when it comes to frequency of shots in the box, Botman’s average of 111 minutes and Burn’s 122 minutes are markedly quicker than the 201 of the more expensive Schar.

Newcastle defenders' goal threat compared

Martin Dubravka’s cost of £4.2m could also make him an appealing option for those looking to “cover” the Trippier clean sheets, although bonus points have been hard to come by for Newcastle ‘keepers this season.

Dubravka and Nick Pope (£5.3m) have managed only one each despite their combined seven clean sheets.

So, who are the best Newcastle players to invest in?

Despite his poor displays on the road, Gordon’s relentless home output and low cost as a midfielder in Fantasy can certainly make him worth the outlay.

His away form has to be a concern, though, and bearing in mind Newcastle don't have back-to-back home matches until Gameweek 30, the winger is far from a "must-have" right now. 

Although managers shouldn’t be rushing to Trippier, his 37 per cent ownership should be happy to hold for now as he still offers huge potential due to his multiple routes to returns.

If Newcastle can turn the corner defensively, Botman, Burn and Dubravka can all offer great value picks at the back, albeit with a far lower points ceiling than Trippier.

Up front, Howe’s rotation will continue to determine how managers view Isak and Wilson, although with no European matches on their schedule now, there’s a hope that the Swede can finally secure a run of starts.

If that is the case, Isak’s ability to deliver more regularly on a home/away basis could make him a strong pick for managers looking to play with a three-man frontline.

Nonetheless, Newcastle’s lack of a Double Gameweek does lessen the need to make a move for Isak at a time when rivals such as Brentford’s Ivan Toney (£7.9m) has two matches in Gameweek 25.

View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 22 in Fantasy Premier League