Alex Keble analyses where the upcoming fixtures in Matchweek 23 could be won and lost.
Can rampant Liverpool effectively end Arsenal’s title challenge?
Liverpool’s 2-0 victory at Arsenal in the FA Cup third-round was defined by wasteful finishing from the hosts, but with Jurgen Klopp’s side in rampant form since then, the rhythm of the contest on Sunday is likely to be different.
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In their 4-1 annihilation of Chelsea, Liverpool’s counter-pressing was phenomenal, allowing them to pin Chelsea back and harass them throughout the 90 minutes.
Arsenal could be similarly blown away - Liverpool have won their last four Premier League away matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding only one.
Dominik Szoboszlai’s return also improves Liverpool’s control of central midfield, while Darwin Nunez – despite hitting the woodwork four times in midweek – is recently looking unplayable.
Much rests on whether Arsenal can resist that Liverpool pressing, which puts pressure on Declan Rice to control things from the base of midfield. If Arsenal can get out in these transitional moments, there will be space behind the Liverpool full-backs for Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli to run into.
However, even if that was to happen, an end-to-end contest appears to suit Liverpool, particularly while they are riding a wave of emotion following Klopp’s resignation announcement.
Defeat for Arsenal would be near catastrophic, leaving them eight points behind Liverpool with 15 matches to play.
Will West Ham’s defensive stance blunt Man Utd attack?
West Ham United have won each of their last two Premier League meetings against Man Utd to nil, winning 2-0 in December and 1-0 in the final weeks of last season.
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There is a clear pattern developing here - and Man Utd’s dramatic midweek victory at Wolves is unlikely to have affected things.
Wolves shipped four goals because Gary O’Neil’s tactical setup backfired. His 5-2-3 formation was far too open, and with Tommy Doyle advancing so far forward Wolves effectively had one central midfielder on the pitch, allowing Man Utd to counter-attack with ease through the centre.
Tactical analysis of Thursday’s match is relevant because it tells us not to expect the same thing on Sunday, when David Moyes will happily sit deep, absorb pressure, and compress space centrally. In other words, it is an entirely different challenge, and one Erik ten Hag’s side will not enjoy.
West Ham have won 17 points from 11 away matches this season largely by following that basic pattern, spring-loading their attacks by starting from a low base.
And with Kalvin Phillips now available to spray long diagonals into Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, their ability to counter in small numbers has only improved since the sides last met.
There is a very real possibility that West Ham will complete their first league double over Man Utd since 2006/07.
Will Nkunku’s return help produce the match of the weekend?
In stark contrast to the contest at Old Trafford, this one might follow a very similar trajectory to Wolves’ 4-3 defeat to Man Utd on Thursday night.
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Chelsea’s penchant for hard pressing and fast transitions under Mauricio Pochettino means they are happily pulled into open and entertaining end-to-end matches this season, hence why they have the third highest Expected Goals (xG) of 42.4, and have conceded the sixth most shots on target with 111.
Assuming that O’Neil continues with a version of the 5-2-3 formation deployed against Man Utd – which is likely, considering that’s the system he used for the 2-1 win against Chelsea in the reverse fixture on Christmas Eve – we might be treated to a wild 90 minutes at Stamford Bridge.
Matheus Cunha and Pedro Neto were superb in midweek and should be equally effective against Pochettino’s high line, finding space around full-backs Ben Chilwell and Axel Disasi just as Liverpool did in their 4-1 win.
But by luring Wolves forward, spaces will open up at the other end for a Chelsea attack led by the returning Christopher Nkunku.
Nkunku scored an excellent goal off the bench against Liverpool, suggesting that he is the striker Chelsea need to start converting their chances. Only Everton with -9.1 have under-scored against their xG to a greater extent than Chelsea's -7.2.
Can Awoyini steer Forest clear of relegation?
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Taiwo Awoniyi, out since 12 November with a groin injury, made a goalscoring comeback off the bench against Arsenal on Tuesday evening. It was a timely return.
Awoniyi has been involved in 13 goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances, and has five goals and two assists in 11 matches in 2023/24.
He has a major role to play in Forest’s battle against the drop, and although Bournemouth have won three of their last five home matches – only losing to Liverpool – Awoniyi’s presence is enough to boost the visitors’ chances.
Back amongst the goals straight away 💪 pic.twitter.com/2gSsJ4l8Fg
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) January 31, 2024
Things have started well for Nuno Espirito Santo, yet Forest are a mere point above the drop zone with Luton Town going above them on goal difference following their 4-4 draw at Newcastle United. Awoniyi could be the difference between relegation and survival.
Can Haaland’s return prevent another shock Brentford win?
Brentford – who did the double over Manchester City last season, winning 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium and 1-0 at home – face Pep Guardiola’s side twice in the Premier League this month.
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Guardiola, however, has yet to lose three consecutive top-flight meetings with an opponent before, and even with Ivan Toney back for Brentford, it does seem unlikely that record will change.
Man City have won all three of their last away Premier League matches despite having trailed in each, while Brentford have dropped a league-high 23 points from winning positions this season, suggesting that even if Thomas Frank’s side go a goal ahead they will be reeled in.
What’s more, Erling Haaland is back from injury and due to play alongside Kevin De Bruyne for only the second time in the Premier League this season.
Given that Brentford haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 league outings, and have conceded two or more in each of the last five, there is a good chance the return of De Bruyne and Haaland will be a fruitful one.
De Bruyne is averaging a goal or assist every 40 minutes this season (1 goal, 4 assists in 199 minutes). Haaland and De Bruyne combined for nine goals in 2022/23, more than anyone else. Haaland has 14 goals in 16 Premier League matches so far this campaign.
It’s all rather ominous, and yet Brentford will believe they can do it again. After all, the Bees are the only team Haaland has not yet scored against in the Premier League.
