As the curtain comes down on Jurgen Klopp versus Pep Guardiola, the spotlight turns to the next great Premier League managerial rivalry.
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What we find is something completely different to the Klopp-Guardiola era; a new twist on the old theme of managers learning and adapting from one another.
For the first time, the Premier League has a master and apprentice story.
After retiring, Mikel Arteta only had one boss before becoming a manager. There is no ambiguity here.
He is the first Guardiola student to come up against his tutor and attempt to usurp him.
It is producing fascinating tactical battles between Arsenal and Manchester City, two teams frustrated, squeezed, or unlocked by their doppelgangers.
The tactics are eerily symmetrical, and after some wilder early matches, things have settled into a war of attrition.
Here’s the story of their relationship so far and of the tactical battles that make up what is fast becoming the Premier League’s defining rivalry.
Guardiola and Arteta: The Premier League story so far
Arteta and Guardiola’s history together
Arteta and Guardiola first met at Barcelona, when Arteta was in the academy and Guardiola an established first-team player.
But Arteta never graduated to the seniors and their paths diverged, although over the next 15 years – Arteta playing mostly in England, Guardiola managing around Europe – the two kept in touch.
It was Guardiola’s desire for help understanding the English game that led to Arteta’s appointment as an assistant at City in 2016.
“I have [Man City fitness coach] Lorenzo Buenaventura, maybe the closest friend because we started together in Barcelona,” Guardiola said in a press conference in January 2023.
“He knows Mikel really well and I knew him a little bit, but not like Loren. We made a conversation and he said, ‘I would like to work together and I can help you because I know the Premier League perfectly, I know all the managers’.
“I remember the first game was against Sunderland and it was against David Moyes and he said, ‘I know him well from Everton, he does this, he does that.’
“After 15 minutes, half an hour, I said, ‘He is the guy. He can help me to anticipate.’”
Arteta would do a lot more than that.
It wasn’t long until he was being touted as the natural successor to Guardiola, but when Arsenal came knocking in 2019 their paths diverged again.
Guardiola’s influence on Arteta
In the first couple of years as Arsenal manager, there were notable points of difference between Arteta and Guardiola.
Arsenal were more direct, their tactics seemingly less influenced by Guardiola’s control and positional discipline as we might have expected.
Certainly during Arteta’s difficult periods at the club - notably when Arsenal won 14 points from the first 14 matches of the 2020/21 season – Arteta seemed to let individualism reign free, throwing the kitchen sink in order to find results.
During his first two full seasons, when Arsenal finished eighth and fifth, there were regular formation changes that included a 3-4-3 and a 4-2-3-1, while their average possession (53.5 per cent and 52.8 per cent) reflected a more vertically-inclined tactical approach designed to accommodate players such as Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
But last season, and then into this one, we saw Arteta’s real Arsenal emerge, looking very similar to Guardiola’s Man City.
They now use a 4-3-3 with the same midfield configurations as Man City, prioritising possession (61.9 per cent average) and defensive control to suffocate opponents.
In retrospect, it turns out all those years of difference were just an awkward transition, and as soon as Arteta had a squad built in his image he indisputably became a Guardiola disciple.
Head-to-heads: 2022 meeting sets a new template
This gradual movement towards his true self, having commendably adapted his tactics until the pieces were in place, means there is little point analysing the matches between Arteta and Guardiola prior to 2022/23.
But we can start with their second meeting of 2021/22, a 2-1 win for Man City on New Year's Day 2022, at what was the beginning of a turning point for Arteta’s Arsenal.
Arsenal shocked Man City with a highly confrontational approach, pressing man-to-man from the front to pin back and overwhelm Rodri, who sat alone at the base of midfield.
Presumably Guardiola had thought he could afford to be a little more open, having beaten his apprentice 5-0 in the reverse fixture, but it proved a mistake as Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey swamped Rodri.
However, Arsenal, still a team very much in transition, collapsed in the second half, a needless penalty concession and a red card ultimately allowing Man City to win it late on.
Nevertheless it set a new template – and had Guardiola worried.
Guardiola over-corrects in the next meeting but Arsenal still lose
That’s the only explanation for some over-thinking the next time they met, a 3-1 win for Man City in February 2023, with Bernardo Silva in a left-back/central midfield role in a 3-2-2-3 formation that ranks among the weirdest formations ever trialled by Guardiola.
“I tried something new and it was horrible,” Guardiola said after the game. “Second half, we were more like we are.”
Man City couldn’t get a foothold in such an unfamiliar shape, and with Silva caught between a rock and a hard place, Arsenal repeatedly funnelled possession down that side, made possible by Jack Grealish sitting too far infield to help defend the flanks.
In this typical example below, Grealish and Silva were too disconnected, allowing Saka to easily get on the ball and drive inside, dribbling beyond the flailing Silva to do so.
Guardiola had gone ultra-narrow on and off the ball, clearly reacting to the way Arsenal’s narrow pressing had hurt the isolated Rodri in the previous fixture. Arteta, anticipating that counter-move, cleverly switched things up by playing a wider game.
But after Arsenal held 59 per cent possession in the first 45 minutes, Guardiola changed to a more conventional 4-3-3 in the second half, moving Silva out wide, and Man City’s superiority shone through.
Gabriel Magalhaes made a mistake, Man City took the lead, and Arsenal’s wobbling confidence became the defining feature of the match.
Guardiola solves Arsenal’s man-to-man press in 4-1 win
So, twice Guardiola’s team were outplayed by Arsenal’s hard-pressing football, and twice it was only individual errors that led to Man City wins.
But at the third attempt, Pep cracked it, winning 4-1 at the Etihad Stadium in April 2023. This time he picked a surprise 4-2-4 formation with Manuel Akanji and Kyle Walker holding the width as traditional full-backs, giving City an outlet to break Arsenal’s man-to-man press on the Man City midfielders.
From this position, luring Arsenal into their trap, Man City then had Kevin De Bruyne sneak around the back of the press, ready to interact with Erling Haaland in a far more direct way than usual, as indicated here:
City scored twice via quick and vertical attacks through De Bruyne and Haaland, dove-tailing into the space between Arsenal’s defence and midfield, using the Gunners' high press against them and winning comfortably.
“When they play man-to-man we just have to go a little bit longer, because there’s no space to play the short passes,” was De Bruyne’s take after the match.
“The connection of Kevin and Erling is extraordinary and we tried today to use it as much as possible,” Guardiola told TNT Sports.
Arteta finally beats Guardiola by reining in the press
Presumably realising his man-to-man pressing had finally been solved by Guardiola, Arteta was considerably more conservative in their first meeting of the 2023/24 campaign.
It worked. Both teams were sluggish, lacking any real fluidity up against cautious opponents and unwilling to attack in high numbers. It was a claustrophobic match to say the least, settled by a scruffy Martinelli goal.
The combined xG of this game was 0.9, which is at least three times smaller than any of their previous three meetings:
Arsenal v Man City xG last four meetings
| Match | xG compared | xG combined |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 1-2 Man City | 0.8 – 2.0xG | 2.8xG |
| Arsenal 1-3 Man City | 1.6 – 1.8xG | 3.4xG |
| Man City 4-1 Arsenal | 2.5 – 0.5xG | 3.0xG |
| Arsenal 1-0 Man City | 0.5 – 0.4xG | 0.9xG |
The hosts were helped significantly by the absences of Rodri and De Bruyne, who were crucial to beating Arsenal in previous attempts, and without whom Guardiola’s side never found their rhythm.
Nevertheless Arsenal’s own caution was a notable point of difference and the reason for Arteta’s first league win against his mentor.
For the fourth game in a row, the tactical pattern was a clear reaction to the previous head-to-head. It is a sure sign that Arteta versus Guardiola has the makings of an iconic Premier League rivalry.
What will be the next move this Sunday?
Attempting to predict where this rivalry will go next is a fool’s errand.
Having been defeated back in October it is Guardiola’s move, and therefore truly anything could happen. He rarely goes for the conventional.
Odds are it will be another cautious encounter. Arteta may see little reason to reinstate the man-to-man press, even if Liverpool’s dominant second half against Man City earlier this month was built on pinning Guardiola’s team back (and, therefore, leaving Rodri without the support of John Stones, who was forced into the back line).
Nobody really does that at the Etihad, and therefore emulating the style of their 1-0 win in north London makes more sense, with Jorginho and Declan Rice a mindful double pivot looking to keep a lid on the De Bruyne/Haaland relationship.
What’s more, this being the first game back from the international break means things might be a little more sluggish than usual as the team reconnects, therefore making a conservative tactical approach the safest way to minimise errors and feel their way into the contest.
Man City, just a point behind Arsenal, don’t necessarily need to win the game and that again points to a quieter match.
By now, Guardiola knows Arteta is a worthy rival. He can’t take risks, can’t take anything for granted.
For the first time, they enter the match as equals. To a certain extent that resets the rivalry; making this the beginning of a new post-Klopp era in the Premier League.
It means a hesitant, respectful start. What happens when it explodes into life is anybody’s guess, but with the title on the line, every goal will add to the folklore of a fixture that has just taken centre-stage.