Erling Haaland (£14.2m) and Alexander Isak (£8.4m) are expected to populate millions of forward lines for the final Double Gameweek of 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League.
Six sides are playing twice - Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur - in Double Gameweek 37 (DGW37).
It will be a popular week to Bench-Boost, with the opportunity of getting points from 15 players who ALL play twice, so picking the right third forward will be key. Interestingly, 73.59 per cent of managers are yet to use this chip this season.
Both Haaland and Isak head into DGW37 in prolific form. Man City's Haaland has scored seven goals and supplied an assist to collect 48 points across his last six matches, while Newcastle's Isak has six goals, an assist and 44 points.
But which forward should join them in managers' frontlines?
The Scout is here to help, assessing the best options for managers who have not yet maxed out their allocation of three players from each of the DGW37 clubs, according to both form and the underlying statistics.
Who’s in the best form?
Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m) was near-identical to Isak for output across his previous six appearances.
The Senegalese has scored four goals and supplied three assists to total 42 points, which included hauls of 14 and 16 points.
There’s a substantial drop to Julian Alvarez (£6.4m) in fourth spot, with the Argentinian delivering two goals, an assist and 22 points over this period.
Although he dropped out of Pep Guardiola’s starting line-up to accommodate Haaland against Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend, it’s worth noting that Alvarez was named in the same XI as the Norwegian in Gameweeks 32 and 33, before the latter picked up an injury.
Rasmus Hojlund (£7.1m) started each of Man Utd’s last six matches but has struggled for output, with only a single goal to his name.
Newcastle’s Callum Wilson (£7.8m) has scored in back-to-back Gameweeks since returning from injury.
Encouragingly, he started alongside Isak in a 4-4-2 set-up in the Magpies’ 4-1 win over Burnley last weekend.
Top-scoring DGW37 forwards, last six Gameweeks
| Player | Pts | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 48 | 7 | 1 |
| Isak | 44 | 6 | 1 |
| Jackson | 42 | 4 | 3 |
| Alvarez | 22 | 2 | 1 |
| Hojlund | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| Wilson | 14 | 2 | 0 |
| Joao Pedro | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Who's mostly likely to score or get an assist?
The underlying statistics show why Haaland and Isak have been such a big success across their previous six appearances.
They lead the way for big chances in the analysis with 11 apiece, while they are also joint-top for shots as well as occupying the top two spots for shots in the box.
Alvarez and Joao Pedro (£5.2m) boast very similar goal threats to the popular pair.
Alvarez's 22 shots are identical to both Haaland and Isak, while Joao Pedro matches Isak’s 19 shots in the box.
However, they have both struggled to finish their opportunities, as evidenced by their lowly goal conversion rates of 9.1 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
Joao Pedro’s 14 key passes and three big chances created each rank top in the assessment, which highlights his huge all-round influence on Brighton's attack.
Chelsea’s Jackson sits fifth for shots in the box, with 14, with a healthy 25 per cent goal conversion rate boosting his output, by contrast.
Man Utd’s Hojlund, on the other hand, has averaged under one shot per match, with his five shots in the box and one big chance the worst on show here.
On the positive side, he has created eight chances for his team-mates, placing him joint-second, with Isak.
Goal threat, last six matches
| Player | Big chances | Shots | Shots in box | Goal conversion | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 11 | 22 | 21 | 31.8% | 7 | 1 |
| Isak | 11 | 22 | 19 | 27.3% | 8 | 1 |
| Jackson | 8 | 16 | 14 | 25% | 7 | 0 |
| Alvarez | 7 | 22 | 17 | 9.1% | 5 | 0 |
| Joao Pedro | 4 | 21 | 19 | 4.8% | 14 | 3 |
| Wilson | 2 | 6 | 6 | 33.3% | 3 | 1 |
| Hojlund | 1 | 5 | 5 | 20% | 8 | 0 |
Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
What about the opposition defences?
By assessing the recent defensive displays of each DGW37 side's opponents, managers can get a better idea of those who are most likely to score.
Newcastle assets are the most-favoured by the Expected Goals Against (xGA) numbers.
The Magpies first play a Brighton side who have an xGA of 9.20 across their last six matches, and then face a Man Utd team who have a porous 12.96 xGA over their previous six encounters.
Those two figures combined come to 22.16 xGA, comfortably ahead of the rest of the DGW37 sides.
Man City lead the chasing pack with an xGA score of 18.57, with Brighton, Chelsea and Spurs near-identical.
Man Utd, however, look like the team to avoid here. Both their DGW37 opponents, Arsenal and Newcastle, are among the six best defences in the league for xGA across their last six matches.
DGW37 opponents, last six matches
| Team | Opponents' xGA | Opponents' combined xGA |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | BHA (9.20), MUN (12.96) | 22.16 |
| Man City | FUL (6.08), TOT (12.49) | 18.57 |
| Brighton | NEW (6.95), CHE (9.92) | 16.87 |
| Chelsea | NFO (7.62), BHA (9.20) | 16.82 |
| Spurs | BUR (11.38), MCI (5.25) | 16.63 |
| Man Utd | ARS (6.20), NEW (6.95) | 13.15 |
So, who is the best third forward for DGW37?
Jackson’s potential for goals and assists, allied to his growing confidence as a key figure in Chelsea’s improving side, marginally gives him the edge.
Nonetheless, both Wilson and Joao Pedro should also be considered.
The former’s clinical finishing and kind DGW37 fixtures indicates that if he starts at least one of Newcastle’s two matches, he could be the best option of the lot.
Joao Pedro’s underlying numbers are the most convincing of the three, although his poor finishing has to place question marks over investing in the cut-price Brighton star.
At a cost of just £5.2m, though, his role as the Seagulls’ first-choice penalty-taker marks him out as a major value prospect for those managers who need to free-up funds to invest elsewhere.
