The Scout compares players' statistics, prices and fixtures in each position to help managers pick their opening squads for 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League, ahead of the Gameweek 1 deadline at 18:30 BST on Friday 16 August.
Forwards (£7.5m and over)
There are potentially more viable options for managers’ forward lines in 2024/25 than there have been for many seasons in Fantasy.
Erling Haaland (£15.0m) remains the most expensive pick by some margin and is at least £6.0m more than any other player in his position. The Manchester City star is certainly the most likely to deliver a huge haul – his eight double-figure returns in 2023/24 ranked top among forwards.
However, there are a host of strong options at far cheaper prices, with Arsenal’s Kai Havertz (£8.0m) and Tottenham Hotspur’s Dominic Solanke (£7.5m), along with Newcastle United star Alexander Isak (£8.5m) and Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) all capable of big scores on their day.
By analysing the Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) data from the previous campaign, it’s easy to see that Haaland was in a league of his own in 2023/24.
The Norwegian produced 1.12 attacking returns (a goal or an assist) per 90 minutes, comfortably more than any other forward.
Crucially, his xGI was 1.11 per 90 minutes, which gave him an xGI delta of +0.01, and shows that Haaland’s output was more or less identical to what was anticipated.
There was little to separate Isak and Watkins for goals and assists per 90 minutes, with the former having the slightest of edges by 0.91 to 0.90.
However, whereas Isak’s output was on par with his 0.91 xGI, Watkins considerably overperformed by a margin of 0.31 attacking returns per 90 minutes. Of the two, then, it’s the Newcastle star who seems most likely to repeat his feats of 2023/24.
Havertz’s statistics are all the more encouraging given that he didn’t move up front for Arsenal until midway through last season. The German’s 0.68 goals or assists per 90 minutes places fifth in the assessment, with an xGI delta of +0.12 indicating he only did slightly better than expected.
Elsewhere, Solanke’s numbers in his final season at AFC Bournemouth are also encouraging. Indeed, his xGI of 0.59 is exactly the same as Watkins – the only difference being Solanke pretty much stuck to what the numbers hinted it.
That’s also in stark contrast to another £7.5-priced option, Crystal Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta. Although he ranks joint third for goals and assists per 90 minutes with 0.81, he far exceed what was expected by +0.34, more than any of the pricey forwards.
xGI per 90 mins, 2023/24
| Player | Goals & assists | xGI | xGI delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 1.12 | 1.11 | +0.01 |
| Isak | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Nunez | 0.81 | 0.89 | -0.08 |
| Jackson | 0.61 | 0.69 | -0.08 |
| Watkins | 0.90 | 0.59 | +0.31 |
| Solanke | 0.60 | 0.59 | +0.01 |
| Havertz | 0.68 | 0.56 | +0.12 |
| Mateta | 0.81 | 0.47 | +0.34 |
Forwards (£7.0m and under)
By assessing the schedules and pre-season form, managers can get a better idea of the forwards who can offer good value at the start of 2024/25.
Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood (£6.0m) could prove a very handy budget pick over the opening Gameweeks. He has been involved in a team-high five goals over the summer, scoring three and assisting two.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), five of Nott’m Forest’s first six matches score just two.
Fulham forward Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m) also has a favourable run of opponents, facing promoted Leicester City and Ipswich Town in Gameweeks 2-3.
Southampton’s Adam Armstrong (£5.5m) and Bournemouth’s Enes Unal (£5.5m) could be the pick of the sub-£6.0m starters.
Armstrong combined 24 goals with 13 assists for the Championship playoff winners last season and is on penalty duties.
Unal, meanwhile, could now be set for a regular centre-forward role following Solanke’s departure to Spurs.
