Why Gundogan's return to Man City makes perfect sense

Football writer Alex Keble looks at the importance of Ilkay Gundogan's return to Manchester City.

In the summer of 2023, Gundogan said an emotional goodbye to Man City after seven years of service, 14 major trophies and the perfect ending, having just captained his team to the Treble.

“It’s amazing what we achieved,” Gundogan wrote in a goodbye note in The Players' Tribune as he headed off to Barcelona. “Yes, the football was sensational at times. But the people were even better. I will remember you all for the rest of my life. Thank you for everything.”

Those are not the words of someone who thought they’d be back a year later.

Gundogan’s return to Man City is among the least-expected transfers of the summer, and yet his homecoming makes perfect sense.

Pep Guardiola has missed Gundogan. Man City never adequately replaced him for the 2023/24 season, and the recent departure of Julian Alvarez has only increased the need for a goalscoring playmaker.

Here’s why Gundogan was such an important player for Man City - and why he further boosts their chances of a fifth successive Premier League title.

Why Gundogan’s first spell was so special

Gundogan was the first player through the door after Guardiola’s arrival in 2016, a sign of just how highly the new Man City manager rated him.

He was proved right. Gundogan played 304 matches in seven seasons at the Etihad Stadium, an average of 43 matches per season in all competitions, scoring 60 goals and assisting a further 37.

He played in a number of roles in that time, from the lone No 6, to one of a pair of players anchoring midfield, to a marauding, box-crashing No 8.

For the first few seasons, it was Gundogan’s versatility that made him such an asset to Guardiola, but more recently he took a starring role as a goalscoring midfielder linking the midfield with the attack.

As his influence grew, so too did his capacity to affect the biggest matches.

On the final day of the 2021/22 season, Gundogan scored twice against Aston Villa; the first goal that sparked Man City’s famous comeback and the 81st-minute winner in a 3-2 success, cementing his status as a club legend.

That season-defining display by the German helped him to claim the inaugural Castrol Game Changer of the Season award.

A year later, Gundogan stepped up once again, scoring the opener in a 3-0 win over Everton and both goals in a 2-1 victory over Leeds United that helped keep Man City above Arsenal.

The following month, Gundogan scored the fastest ever goal in an FA Cup final, the first of his two strikes in a 2-1 triumph over Manchester United.

That capacity to score big goals in big moments, and to step up to fill the boots of others, typified his seven years at Man City.

The good news for City fans is that Gundogan returns as exactly the same player who left.

Superb at Barcelona despite club's poor season

A single trophyless season at the Nou Camp might look underwhelming, but Barcelona’s lack of success under Xavi merely hides what an excellent campaign Gundogan had individually.

In 33 starts, Gundogan scored nine goals and assisted a further four in LaLiga, putting him third among Barcelona players for goal involvements, behind only Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha, with 27 and 15 respectively.

But at Barcelona, his game was less about goals and assists and more about possession, distribution, press resistance and recovering the ball.

He excelled on every front. In LaLiga, Gundogan was in the top seven players at least for passes completed, touches, through-balls and crosses, while only 10 players recovered the ball more often than he did.

Gundogan at Barcelona 23/24

Even more impressive was Gundogan’s creativity. He created more chances than any other player in LaLiga, with 97, and delivered 9.8 Expected Assists (xA), the second-highest figure in the league behind his new Man City team-mate Savinho.

The fact that Gundogan’s passes should have created 9.8 goals but only ended in four actual assists is proof of his personal triumph in 2023/24 amid underperformance around him.

Gundogan's creativity 23/24

What Man City missed and why they need him now

It’s Gundogan's creativity, plus the goalscoring you would expect to reappear if he played higher up the pitch, that Man City missed last season and need in 2024/25.

In a slower first half of 2023/24, there were quite a few matches where Man City could have done with a midfielder to either create chances for Erling Haaland, or score himself.

In the 2-1 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers, the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal and the 1-0 defeat to Villa last season, Man City failed to hit an Expected Goals (xG) total above 1.0.

On all three occasions they looked flat in midfield, missing the urgency and forward running of Gundogan or the injured Kevin De Bruyne.

Guardiola’s side were desperate for a runner from midfield; for someone to charge into the box and take advantage of the space that opens up when defences are distracted by Haaland.

In short, they were crying out for Gundogan: the reliable, forward-thinking midfielder who so often came up with goals at crucial moments.

It’s fair to say that neither Mateo Kovacic nor Matheus Nunes gave Man City what they lost in Gundogan.

Gundogan compared with Man City midfielders

But this is also true from a defensive standpoint, when Man City needed someone alongside Rodri in a 4-2-3-1 to help control matches.

The 4-4 draw with Chelsea and 3-3 draw with Tottenham Hotspur are particularly pertinent examples. In both, Alvarez played alongside Bernardo Silva – and City’s midfield was too open, leading to end-to-end encounters.

For comparison, in the 1-0 victory at Stamford Bridge the previous season, Gundogan completed six tackles and interceptions.

The graphic below also shows that Gundogan is a better defensive player than Kovacic. Gundogan won more duels and recovered the ball more often despite playing fewer minutes.

Of course, Man City found a way to get past these problems in the second half of the season, but that does not mean passivity in midfield will not re-emerge as a problem.

Certainly from an attacking perspective they needed an addition now that Alvarez has gone.

Alvarez scored 11 goals and assisted a further nine in the Premier League last season. Gundogan averaged 13 goal involvements per season in his three final years at the club, and therefore he ought to replace at least some of what City have lost.

In summary, Gundogan replaces Alvarez’s goals, adds creativity in central midfield and upgrades Man City’s current options in a deeper midfield role.

He is the perfect signing – which is hardly a surprise. Gundogan was a crucial player for Man City and the chances are he will be again.