Why there are reasons for optimism at Man Utd despite slow start

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players for Manchester United so far this season.

Team analysis - Man Utd

Erik ten Hag insists Man Utd are heading in the right direction, but back-to-back defeats have led to further scrutiny of his tactical approach.

In certain aspects of their play there are clear signs of improvement from last season, yet individual errors in those losses to Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool also shone a spotlight on structural issues which still need addressing.

We take a closer look at what is going right and wrong at Old Trafford.

The positives

Without the ball, United are performing with greater aggression than they did in 2023/24.

Using a striker-less 4-2-4 from the start in their opening two matches helped them implement a more robust pressing game.

Crowding the central spine and middle third of the pitch, United were harder to play against, and this is reflected in some strong data across their opening three matches.

No team have made more tackles, with both full-backs and central midfielders especially tenacious.

Mazraoui's debut v Fulham

United also rank inside the Premier League’s top three for possession won, possession won in the final third and interceptions.

Man Utd defensive stats 23/24 v 24/25 comparison

Premier League rank in brackets

Ten Hag did move away from a “false nine” set-up for the visit of Liverpool, and an outstanding display from Arne Slot’s men subsequently exposed flaws in their off-the-ball shape.

But compared with last season there is still more positive intent about his side when they are out of possession.

Creating better quality chances

Last season Man Utd failed to create a high enough percentage of quality goalscoring opportunities, but that habit is in the process of changing.

Ten Hag’s side made more than one big chance in just half of their 38 league matches in 2023/24, but they have surpassed that in every fixture so far.

United produced a total of seven big chances across home matches against Fulham (four) and Liverpool (three), with a further two created at Brighton.

In addition to those opportunities, United also had two goals disallowed for offside that would have added to the tally.

Their forward players are performing with a sharpness that offers hope for the weeks ahead.

In an erratic 2023/24, Man Utd’s average for Expected Goals (xG) per shot was only 0.10 last season, ranking them 16th.

As it stands, their figure of 0.16 xG per shot this season is the highest of all 20 teams.

Best xG/shot rate 24/25

By making better decisions inside the final third, and selecting their moments to shoot more carefully, Man Utd have improved the quality of chances they make.

Transitions exposing United

The structure of United's shape has left them too vulnerable to swift counter-attacks.

This has been their most serious, longstanding issue.

Ten Hag has clearly instructed both full-backs to take up advanced positions when the side build from the back, and at times this has put undue pressure on the player in possession not to make a mistake.

Here it is clear how high Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui (circled in yellow) are when Casemiro's pass into midfield is intercepted, handing Liverpool a huge numerical overload, from which they scored the opening goal.

Man Utd's full-back positioning

Diaz's opener v Man Utd

Ten Hag is also encouraging his full-backs to follow opponents into the central domain, and this too has been problematic.

Below you see Mazraoui track his man into the heart of midfield, but with opposite full-back Dalot in a very advanced position, the right-back leaves a 3v2 situation behind him that quickly became a 4v2.

Full-back tactics exposing Man Utd's centre-backs

A similar situation occurred prior to Mohamed Salah’s goal that made it 3-0 at Old Trafford.

The moment Kobbie Mainoo loses his duel, United’s two centre-backs are left to deal with a 4v2, as shown below.

Salah's goal v Man Utd

Liverpool head coach Slot confessed afterwards that he was prepared to leave wide forwards Salah and Luis Diaz high, in anticipation of these turnovers.

"We always want to press high. That's what Jurgen [Klopp] did. That's what we try to continue," said Slot. "And we scored a few goals from a high press - [including] one disallowed.

"Their full-backs are sometimes really high and then Casemiro comes in between [the centre-backs]. So if you pick the ball and you keep Luis Diaz and Mo Salah high, you're constantly in a 1v1 situation.

"You need midfielders that can run, and we had three of them today that kept on running, and if you arrive in a duel they are aggressive enough to win it. That was one of the main things why we could win today."

How to fix it?

A more pragmatic approach would be to instruct the full-backs only to push forward, or infield, when they feel their team-mates have secure possession of the ball.

Vacating their positions regardless of how much control a player has of the ball or situation, is a gamble which has backfired too often already.

Each centre-back and the deepest-lying midfielder know that they cannot afford to lose the ball, and this in turn encourages opponents to press with even greater boldness and tenacity.

A wide-open midfield

Man Utd’s opponents manufactured 620 transitions that reached the final third last season. No other top-flight side has had to deal with such a high number.

When they do sporadically press in advanced areas, Ten Hag’s centre-backs rarely hold a high line, and this can inadvertently create a vacuum of space inside the middle of the pitch.

With all three units spaced a little too far apart, and lacking compactness, Casemiro’s lack of speed and athleticism is exposed.

For all their good work on the ball, this pattern has been repeated this season, with United facing 54 transitions that reached the final third in their opening three matches.

Most transitions against reaching final third 24/25

Failing to slow teams down

Another useful metric that can accurately gauge how open teams are to fast breaks is “Direct speed against”. In open-play sequences it measures how quickly teams progress towards their opponents’ goal.

Last season teams averaged 1.92 metres per second against United, ranking the second fastest.

That figure has increased to 2.05 metres per second in the current campaign, highlighting a lack of progress made in slowing down opponents when they get on the front foot.

Direct speed against 24/25

Not easy for Ugarte

New signing Manuel Ugarte has been brought in to add more bite to United’s midfield, but he alone can't fix the issues which have plagued them since the start of last season.

Ugarte will win tackles and recover possession all over the pitch, but unless the shape of the team around him is more compact, he will experience the same frustrations as Casemiro and Mainoo.

There are, however, positives to be taken from Man Utd’s performances so far, but the tactical framework of the team does remain a work in progress.

Plenty more hard work needs to be done before this new-look United can say that they are definitely on an upward trajectory.

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