Best attack v best defence: Who will win Man City v Arsenal?

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 5.

Match analysis - Manchester City v Arsenal

Arsenal’s visit to Man City on Sunday throws up so many interesting battles, but in essence it is a high-stakes match that pits the division’s most potent attack against the strongest defence.

Erling Haaland comes into this fixture in the form of his life, netting nine of his side’s 11 goals so far with a shot-conversion rate of 47.37 per cent.

And since the start of last season no other team can match City’s average of 2.7 goals scored per home match.

Yet Arsenal did shut out Pep Guardiola’s men twice last season.

In doing so, with a resolute goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March, Mikel Arteta’s side also ended a run of 57 consecutive Premier League matches where Man City had scored on home turf.

Exceptional away form

Arsenal’s defensive data away from home is phenomenal.

In 2024, the Gunners have not fallen behind in any of their 11 Premier League matches away from Emirates Stadium, keeping nine clean sheets.

The only three goals conceded during this period were late consolation efforts, when Arsenal had led 2-0 at Nottingham Forest and 3-0 at Tottenham Hotspur.

David Raya’s form has been excellent, but the protection the rest of the team has provided him on the road has been exceptional.

In fact, across European football’s big five leagues this year, no team comes close to replicating their average of just two shots on target faced in away matches.

Arsenal are currently the best out-of-possession side in Europe due to their pressing from the front and their ability to drop into a lower 4-4-2 block to stifle opponents’ attacks.

Arsenal's away form compared in 2024

Beyond that, their record away from home so far in this calendar year also means they are the hardest team for home sides to break down that we have seen in the last 20 years of Premier League football.

Lowest number of shots on target faced away since 03/04

Arsenal’s average goals against in 2024 is just 0.27 per match.

Across the continent, Ligue 1 side Paris Saint-Germain and Man City are the next closest with 0.64 goals against per 90 minutes on the road.

Goals conceded in away matches top five leagues 2024

Remarkably, in Premier League terms, this figure makes the Gunners the most difficult defence to breach for home teams across the last two decades.

Not even Jose Mourinho’s amazing title-winning Chelsea side from 2004/05 (who conceded just 15 goals all season) could match Arsenal’s ability to shut down opponents.

If Arsenal maintain this form on the road for the remainder of this year, they will go down in history as one of the Premier League’s strongest off-the-ball teams.

Fewest goals conceded away since 2004

Getting the balance right

Arsenal will need to find the right balance between pressing inside City’s half and knowing when it is wise to drop into their compact 4-4-2 shape out of possession.

They showed great discipline in this aspect of their play in both matches against City last season, but any lapses this time are likely to be punished.

When teams press high or go man to man, City are always happy to use the weapon of a long-range pass from Ederson to Haaland.

This was a ploy they have used against the Gunners before, and it helped them score against Brentford last time out.

In general play, Arsenal must, where possible, avoid holding a high line, as Haaland has scored goals against Ipswich Town and West Ham United when running onto a through-ball played into space behind the last man.

Haaland is always looking to make those runs and is a master at converting 1v1s.

The pace and strength of William Saliba will give Arteta confidence that his side could handle such through-balls played beyond the last man.

In their 1-0 win at home to Man City in October 2023, the Frenchman outmuscled Haaland to snuff out a very similar situation when they had been caught with too many players ahead of the ball.

Turnover specialists

Knowing when to pass out from the back, and when to go long, is another vital component to consider when facing Man City.

Arteta recognised this in March's 0-0 draw by asking his players to play in a more direct manner.

Arsenal sent 17.3 per cent of their passes long as they bypassed City's press and from half-time onwards one in five passes were classified as such.

City have scored from turnovers in three of their four Premier League matches so far, which is why Arsenal’s handling of the ball needs to be well-judged and precise.

Mateo Kovacic pounced on a loose pass to score at Chelsea, Kevin De Bruyne profited from an Ipswich error forced by Savinho, and Haaland’s opener at West Ham also stemmed from a deadly transition.

The moment City regain the ball, Haaland is on the move looking to sprint into empty spaces, meaning care is always needed in possession against City.

How do you defend against Haaland?

There is no fail-safe method to handling Haaland, but Arsenal’s centre-back duo have found a way to negate him in recent meetings.

Saliba and Gabriel performed with aggression and intelligence to restrict Haaland to zero shots on target against them last season.

At Emirates Stadium he did not have a shot and his four efforts were either blocked or wayward in the reverse fixture.

Haaland's passes v Arsenal away 2023/24

Haaland's shots v Arsenal home 2023/24

Gabriel tends to be the aggressor, getting tight to Haaland and relishing those physical duels.

Saliba is often the cover player, operating in close proximity ready to use his speed to tidy up any problems.

These two images from last season’s clash encapsulate the way they try to stifle Haaland.

Arsenal have a good recent track record against Man City and they will take great confidence from their away displays this year.

Limiting Spurs to just 0.71 Expected Goals (xG) last weekend was another indication that Arsenal's compact defensive shape in a 4-4-2 is functioning well.

However, replicating that solidity against the defending champions requires an even higher level of focus, discipline and decision-making, especially the way City have begun this campaign.

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