Why are in-demand FPL duo Diaz and Jackson scoring more goals?

The Scout assesses the prolific early-season displays of Luis Diaz (£7.9m) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) in Fantasy Premier League as managers rush to acquire them ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 BST deadline.

Liverpool’s Diaz is the most-bought player in Gameweek 6, earning a massive 770,000+ transfers in after scoring twice against AFC Bournemouth on Saturday.

The Colombian’s brace took him to the top of the midfielder standings on 51 points, two ahead of his team-mate Mohamed Salah (£12.8m). 

Diaz’s 16-point return against the Cherries underlines his improved potential for huge hauls in Fantasy under Liverpool’s new head coach Arne Slot. Indeed, with THREE double-figure hauls, he already has more than the two he managed last season in Fantasy.

Diaz's first goal v Bournemouth

Jackson’s prospects for major hauls was also in evidence in Gameweek 5. 

Two goals and an assist at West Ham United earned the Chelsea forward 16 points. That takes him to two double-figure returns for 2024/25, just one fewer than he managed throughout last season.

Jackson's second goal v West Ham

The Senegalese star has been bought by over 524,000 managers after climbing to second place in the forward standings on 35 points.

Similarly to Diaz when assessed against Salah, Jackson's output compares favourably with a team-mate who is significantly more expensive in Fantasy – Cole Palmer costs £10.6m and only has one point more than Jackson.

What has changed for Diaz?

By assessing the key underlying statistics over Diaz’s four seasons with Liverpool, it becomes easy to see why he has made such a marked improvement under Slot.

A major upturn in big chances (a situation where the player is expected to score) has transformed the winger’s prospects in 2024/25 Fantasy and is the driving factor behind his rise in goals.

He has averaged 1.4 big chances per match this season, almost THREE TIMES his previous best of 0.5, recorded in both 2021/22 and 2023/24.

Due to that hike in superior scoring opportunities, Diaz is enjoying his most accurate campaign. His average of 1.6 shots on target per match comfortably eclipses his previous best of 1.0 in his debut 2021/22 season.

Most importantly, though, it has boosted his goal conversion rate, with the Colombian scoring with 38.5 per cent of his shots.

Granted, that is likely to be unsustainable, but if Diaz continues to be provided with a greater degree of big chances, you’d expect him to comfortably better his historical goal conversion record, given that his previous best was just 14.8 per cent.

Diaz's Liverpool stats per 90 mins

How does Diaz compare with Salah under Slot?

A comparison of Diaz and Salah's statistics indicate the Egyptian has the upper hand when it comes to potential for both goals and assists.

Salah has had 16 shots in the box to Diaz's 11, while his 12 key passes and four big chances created are both more than his rival and underline his ability to deliver assists.

What is noticeable, however, is that Diaz is Liverpool’s No 1 player for big chances, with a total of seven to Salah’s five, which shows the Colombian is being supplied with more gilt-edged scoring opportunities.

Salah v Diaz in GW1-5

While Salah has also enjoyed a great start to life under Slot, there’s no doubt that his output at Anfield has frustrated Fantasy managers who have captained him. More than three million managers handed him the armband in Gameweek 5, but he managed just an assist and six points – or 12 captain points – in the 3-0 win over Bournemouth.

Twenty-four hours later, Erling Haaland’s (£15.3m) scored and earned nine points against Arsenal – or 18 with the armband – an outcome which may well have settled the captaincy debate for many managers from this point onwards.

Assessing Salah’s home and away statistics shows his most threatening displays have been in Liverpool’s two AWAY fixtures against Ipswich Town and Manchester United.

He has had four big chances and created four big chances across those two matches on the road – a total of EIGHT big-chance involvements which shows his huge potential for both goals and assists.

By contrast, Salah has had only ONE big-chance involvement across three very favourable home encounters with Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.

Salah's home and away statistics

Is Jackson getting more scoring chances under Maresca?

When comparing Jackson’s goal threat in 2024/25 under Enzo Maresca with 2023/24 under Mauricio Pochettino, there are many similarities.

Unlike Diaz this season, his big chances per match are near-identical, with only a slight rise from 1.0 to 1.2 this time around. Jackson’s shots in the box and shots on target haven’t risen too much either.

But similarly to Diaz, the Senegalese has considerably upped his goal conversion rate. He’s scored with 30.8 per cent of his shots, compared with 17.5 per cent last campaign.

Jackson's Chelsea stats per 90 mins

A quick glance at Chelsea’s statistics also show Jackson's clear advantage over Palmer when it comes to goal threat.

Jackson has produced 13 shots in the box, THREE TIMES Palmer's total of four, while the Senegalese's six big chances and eight shots on target are both TWICE that of his rival.

Jackson v Palmer in GW1-5

What do the expected stats say about Diaz and Jackson?

When assessed against their Expected Goals (xG) statistics from last season, Diaz and Jackson’s dramatic transformations are encouraging for their growing bands of Fantasy owners.

Last campaign Diaz scored only eight goals from an xG of 11.88, which means he underperformed by -3.88 (a figure which is called his "xG Delta").  Jackson was even more culpable, scoring 14 goals from an xG of 18.64. 

Incredibly, both Jackson and Diaz were among the WORST FIVE players in 2023/24 Fantasy for xG Delta. 

Jackson and Diaz's expected stats 23/24

This time around, however, it's a different story altogether. Jackson and Diaz each find a place in the TOP FIVE for xG, along with Haaland, Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Salah. 

Jackson and Diaz have not only stayed true to their expected output, their improved finishing has also helped them to OVERPERFORM their xG, with Deltas of +0.72 and +2.50 respectively.

Although it's very likely that both players' goal conversion rate will drop over the course of the season, the statistics show that Diaz and Jackson already look significantly better prospects under their new managers in 2024/25 Fantasy. 

Best players for Expected Goals stats GW1-5