Why in-form Barnes is a player Man City will fear

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 6.

Player analysis: Harvey Barnes (Newcastle)

Barnes started the 2024/25 Premier League season on the substitutes' bench, but the in-form winger has since made himself a must-pick for Eddie Howe ahead of their home clash with Manchester City this Saturday lunchtime.

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Scoring in each of his last three appearances, following a terrific assist at AFC Bournemouth in Matchweek 2, Barnes is currently one of the division’s most dangerous forwards.

Barnes' assist v Bournemouth

Previously it felt unthinkable for Howe to shift Anthony Gordon away from his favoured left-wing spot, but that is now the likelihood against City.

The England international is expected to start on the right side of the Magpies' attack instead.

Finishing in style

So far this season, Barnes has registered three top-class finishes with his right foot.

The winger’s stunning 23-yard winner against Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux (below) is a contender for the Guinness Goal of the Month award, but there was also plenty to admire about his other strikes too.

Barnes' goal v Wolves

Guiding an awkward bouncing ball one-touch into the far corner from Lloyd Kelly’s cutback, was more difficult than he made it look at home to Tottenham Hotspur.

And last time out at Fulham, the 26-year-old winger deliberately placed a precise shot through a defender's legs on the run, finding the bottom corner.

This Expected Goals (xG) map (below) provides evidence that all of Barnes’ goals and shots so far have been of a relatively difficult nature.

It is why he has outperformed his own xG figure by 1.4.

Barnes' injury issues, and Gordon's excellence on the wing, have restricted the former Leicester City star to just nine starts since joining Newcastle in the summer of 2023, with 17 of his 26 Premier League appearances coming off the bench.

He is a terrific impact sub, but it is hard to leave a player out of your starting line-up when he is averaging 1.45 direct goal involvements per 90 minutes.

And Barnes' early-season impact in that department should not be considered a flash in the pan. Only four players boast a more prolific rate since the start of the 2023/24 campaign - Erling Haaland, Cole Palmer, Michael Olise and Mohamed Salah.

Haaland and Luis Diaz are the only two players to score at a faster rate than Barnes too.

That is excellent company to keep, so if Barnes can stay fit, Newcastle clearly have a talent who they can rely on for regular goals and assists.

How Barnes' mins/goal involvement compares

*Min 10 goal involvements

Focusing attacks down the left

Howe’s side have a tendency for turning towards their left flank, especially at St James’ Park.

The attacking-thirds map (below) from Newcastle's home matches in the Premier League this season shows how they favour moving the ball down that side.

Only Nottingham Forest attack down the left with greater frequency in home matches.

On that wing, Barnes will hug the touchline and stretch play, looking to isolate Kyle Walker, Rico Lewis or Manuel Akanji in 1v1s.

Barnes' pace and ball-carrying ability are both terrific, so he will be a test for whoever Pep Guardiola uses at right-back.

Despite featuring for just 248 minutes, Barnes has already scored twice from six ball carries that ended in shots.

Players with most goal/shot-ending ball carries 2024/25

Newcastle's attack yet to click

Despite collecting 10 points from a possible 15 so far, Newcastle's performance levels have dipped below their usual standards.

They were second-best last weekend at Fulham - despite bossing 61.4 per cent of possession - and in the other match where they monopolised the ball, a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth, Howe’s men rode their luck.

Newcastle have certainly not clicked in attack yet, with their rankings currently way down on what they were in the previous campaign.

Where Newcastle rank for shots last two seasons

Time for Isak and Gordon to fire again?

To stand any chance of ending Man City’s unbeaten run in 2024, Newcastle cannot afford to rely solely on the quality of Barnes.

But getting the best from star men Gordon and Alexander Isak has been an issue. Gordon has not been as bright as he was last season and he may have been adversely impacted by the form of Barnes.

Howe has used Gordon on the right, and in behind Isak in recent matches, and this may have momentarily unsettled him.

Gordon’s creativity is up on the 2023/24 Premier League season, but his goal threat has diminished by quite a significant margin.

Gordon's attacking stats in last two seasons

Newcastle have also found it much harder to create clear-cut opportunities for Isak, whose average for big chances per 90 minutes has decreased from 1.59 last season to 0.44 this season.

His link play has caught the eye, but markers have found it easier to deny him space to run into beyond the last man.

Isak's attacking stats last two seasons

Isak did score from a breakaway at home to Spurs and with Man City likely to dominate possession at St James’ Park, this could be the type of match that suits the Swede.

If Barnes and the rest of Newcastle's attack are firing on all cylinders, Pep Guardiola's side could find their hands very full this weekend.