The Scout assesses the form of Erling Haaland (£15.4m) after the Manchester City star blanked in each of his last two matches against Newcastle United and Fulham in Fantasy Premier League.
Haaland was captained by a massive 5.83million managers for his home encounter with Fulham last weekend. Having produced 20 points in the corresponding fixture in 2023/24, those backers were confident the Norwegian would recover from his blank against Newcastle in Gameweek 6.
But they were left sorely disappointed after he failed to play a part in any of his side’s goals in the 3-2 win over Marco Silva's side.
Assessing the underlying statistics from each of Haaland's appearances this season helps give a better idea of why he has struggled recently.
He had ZERO big chances – situations where the player is expected to score – in each of his outings against Newcastle and Fulham.
In contrast, he had at least one big chance in each of the first five Gameweeks, averaging two such opportunities per match and scoring 10 goals.
Haaland's attacking stats GW 1-7
| GW | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Further analysis of Haaland's career with Man City indicates his recent mini-drought follows the same pattern as his previous two seasons.
In his 2022/23 debut campaign, Haaland scored just one goal across the seven matches in which he had no big chances, against Wolverhampton Wanderers.
And he mirrored that output last season, with his goal against Brighton & Hove Albion his only strike across the seven contests where he was devoid of any big chances.
Essentially, then, Haaland has scored two goals in the 16 matches where he has had zero big chances for Man City.
But in the other 57 matches - where he's had at least one big chance - the 24-year-old has scored a staggering 71 goals.
Haaland's big chances last three seasons
| Season | Matches with zero big chances | Goals in matches with zero big chances | Matches with at least one big chance | Goals in matches with at least one big chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 7 | 1 | 28 | 35 |
| 2023/24 | 7 | 1 | 24 | 26 |
| 2024/25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
Impact of De Bruyne's absence
The creativity statistics certainly indicate that the recent absence of Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m) has curtailed Haaland's output.
Despite missing the last three Gameweeks through injury, the Belgian's 16 key passes and three big chances created both rank second only to Bernardo Silva (£6.5m) among team-mates. Along with summer signing Savio (£6.5m), they are the only players to create more than one big chance for Man City this season.
Jack Grealish (£6.4m) and Ilkay Gundogan (£6.5m), on the other had, have struggled to supply gilt-edged scoring chances. They have made a combined 21 key passes, but only one of those was regarded as a big chance created.
Man City's top creators GW 1-7
| Player | Key passes | Big chances created | Mins/key pass |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Bruyne | 16 | 3 | 22 |
| Bernardo | 19 | 5 | 29 |
| Grealish | 12 | 1 | 29 |
| Foden | 5 | 0 | 36 |
| Savio | 8 | 2 | 37 |
| Gundogan | 10 | 0 | 39 |
How does Haaland's start compare with his previous seasons?
Clearly the onus is on Man City’s creators to be supplying Haaland with better quality opportunities and it’s worth bearing in mind that De Bruyne and Phil Foden (£9.2m) have yet to start a match together this season.
Nonetheless, an assessment of Haaland’s Man City career shows he still thrived without the Belgian in 2023/24.
Haaland had 15 big chances by Gameweek 7 in the previous campaign, compared with only 10 this time around. And that was despite De Bruyne playing a mere 21 minutes of those early 2023/24 matches, having sustained a long-term injury against Burnley in Gameweek 1.
Although Haaland’s 35 shots and 10 headed shots this season both rank top when compared with the opening seven Gameweeks of his other two seasons, his ratio of big chances per shot is by far the lowest.
Only 10 of those 35 shots, or 28.6 per cent, were regarded as big chances. That’s more or less HALF the 56 per cent ratio of his debut 2022/23 campaign, when 14 of his 25 shots in the first seven Gameweeks were big chances.
Haaland GW1-7, last three seasons
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 25 | 32 | 35 |
| Shots in box | 24 | 32 | 31 |
| Big chances | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| % of shots as big chances | 56.0% | 46.9% | 28.6% |
| Headers | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| Goal conversion | 40.0% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
Why Man City’s schedule can get Haaland back to his best
Despite his recent failures, Haaland’s upcoming schedule suggests he could soon return to top form.
His next two opponents, Wolves and Southampton, are both without a clean sheet this season and rank among the bottom three teams for goals conceded, with 21 and 15 respectively.
Crucially, they also place among the worst four sides for conceding big chances – only Ipswich Town and Leicester City have fared worse for this statistic, with 31 and 30 respectively.
Worst defences for big chances conceded
| Club | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 14 | 1 | 31 |
| Leicester | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| Wolves | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| Southampton | 15 | 0 | 25 |
With De Bruyne expected to be fit and Foden stepping up his match sharpness with a 77-minute runout at the weekend, those Gameweek 8-9 encounters will surely allow Man City’s key creators to improve Haaland's quality of scoring opportunities and help him get back to his prolific best.
