Do red cards harm a club's title hopes?

After Arsenal's third red card of the season, football writer Ben Bloom looks at how costly the dismissals could be in the Premier League title race, and what history tells us.

While the Premier League table shows Arsenal in third place – four points behind league leaders Liverpool – it hides a more detailed explanation of their current predicament: the need to avoid red cards. 

Premier League

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	8	+12	21
2	Man City MCI	8	+10	20
3	Arsenal ARS	8	+7	17
4	Aston Villa AVL	8	+5	17

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In the five matches where they have managed to keep all 11 men on the pitch, shown below, Mikel Arteta’s side are yet to drop a single point.

They have scored 12 goals in the process and conceded just three, showing precisely why many people tipped them to usurp Manchester City as champions this season.

Arsenal

Sat 05 Oct
(H)

3 - 1 W

Sat 28 Sep
(H)

4 - 2 W

Sun 15 Sep
(A)

0 - 1 W

Sat 24 Aug
(A)

0 - 2 W

Sat 17 Aug
(H)

2 - 0 W

But then there are the other three matches in which Arsenal have been reduced to 10 men.

In August, they were unable to cling onto a 1-0 lead for 41 minutes when a man down against Brighton & Hove Albion, and they ended up with a draw. Against Man City last month, they played the entire second half at a numerical disadvantage and conceded a late equaliser in a crucial head-to-head.

Then William Saliba was shown a red card just 30 minutes into their trip to AFC Bournemouth on Saturday and their survival instincts were insufficient to prevent a first defeat of the campaign. In those three matches, Arsenal have picked up just two points from a possible nine.

Arsenal

Sat 19 Oct
(A)

2 - 0 L

Sun 22 Sep
(A)

2 - 2 D

Sat 31 Aug
(H)

1 - 1 D

Arsenal players receiving red cards has plagued the club since Arteta took charge in December 2019.

During that time, Arsenal have accrued more reds than any other Premier League team, and by a considerable margin: their total of 18 players sent off far exceeds Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are joint-second on 13.

Most PL red cards since Arteta took charge on 26 Dec 2019

Prior to the current campaign Arsenal's disciplinary record actually looked to be improving. Last season, they received just two red cards in the league – putting them joint-12th in the red-card table – while the previous season did not see a single player sent off.

But the reds have returned over recent months because of a trio of avoidable incidents.

Saliba's sending-off was for bringing down Bournemouth striker Evanilson, who was chasing after Leandro Trossard’s wayward backpass. Trossard and Declan Rice’s red cards were both second yellows for kicking the ball away to delay a restart. 

Arteta has bemoaned the handicap his players are repeatedly giving themselves. 

“You see how much of a struggle it is for all of the teams to win football matches," he told the club's website on Monday ahead of facing Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League. "When you want to do it with 10 men for 65 minutes, the task becomes impossible so we need to eradicate that. It’s clear why, the reasons and how.” 

On his side’s disciplinary issues, Arteta added: “There are things that we’ve discussed in relation to certain topics. Certainly we need to play with 11 if we want to be in the position we want to be.”

Do red cards prove costly for champions?

So how costly will Arsenal’s indiscipline prove as they bid to become champions for the first time in more than two decades?

Recent history shows not only how difficult it is to win a Premier League title when losing players so frequently, but also the importance of avoiding defeats when a team are reduced to 10 men.

Not since Leicester City in 2015/16 have a club become champions when picking up as many as three red cards.

PL champions' red cards since 2015

Interestingly, the only occasion that Man City received more than two red cards over the past seven seasons – four in 2019/20 – was the sole campaign that they did not win the title.

In the 146 minutes that Arsenal have been reduced to 10 men this season they have failed to score and lost with an aggregate scoreline of 4-0.

That inability to score and avoid conceding when at a numerical disadvantage has seen Arteta’s side drop a potential seven points in those matches.

Compare that with recent Premier League champions. Not only have no title-winners had more than two players sent off in a whole season since 2015/16, but none have dropped more than three points in matches where their players have seen red. Arsenal have already dropped more than DOUBLE that total in just eight Premier League matches. 

If you compare them with their "Big Six" rivals, Arsenal have struggled to win points when at a numerical disadvantage.

In the 17 matches since Arteta's appointment in December 2019 where Arsenal have received a red card (against Wolves in February 2021 they got two), Arsenal have claimed on average 0.94 points.

Only Chelsea and Manchester United have a poorer points average when a man down.

'Big Six' points in red-card matches since Dec 2019

If these figures show the scale of the uphill task facing Arteta, there is one other that might yet provide some hope.

Arsene Wenger won the Premier League title three times during his 22-year stint at Arsenal’s helm; on all three of those occasions, his side accrued at least three red cards.

In 2001/02 they even managed to finish top of the table despite a remarkable SIX dismissals.

But their red cards came at the end of the season, while Arteta’s current side have gathered their three red cards in less than a quarter of the campaign. If they are to win the title, they know how important it is to keep every player on the pitch from now on.