Odegaard's return can reignite Arsenal's title challenge

Football writer Alex Keble looks at how Arsenal will be boosted by the imminent return of Martin Odegaard.

The news that Martin Odegaard is nearing a return comes as a blessed relief to everyone connected with Arsenal.

It has been a tough couple of months in his absence, but the Gunners will welcome the sight of their captain back in training as they prepare for Wednesday's trip to Internazionale Milano in the UEFA Champions League. 

Arsenal have not won in three Premier League matches and following the 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United, performances, from an attacking perspective at least, appear to be getting worse over time.

Mikel Arteta’s side have had an Expected Goals (xG) below 1.0 in five of their 10 matches – and that doesn’t include the 1.05 scraped in Saturday’s loss at St James' Park.

Arsenal matches with Expected Goals below 1.0

If that wasn’t bad enough, here’s a statistic that makes for dreadful reading - over the last three matches Arsenal have totalled a mere five shots on target, fewer than bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers managed across 90 minutes in Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.

Clearly Arsenal have missed Odegaard. But why have they struggled so much without him and will things automatically improve when he comes back in?

Most creative player in the league

Since the start of last season, Odegaard has created more open-play chances than anyone else in the Premier League.

That alone tells you how important he is to Arsenal.

Since the beginning of 2023/24, Odegaard tops the Arsenal charts for both Expected Assists (xA) and chances created, with 11.9 and 107 respectively, but perhaps more surprisingly, he ranks second only to Bukayo Saka for shots taken (80).

Since his Premier League debut on 30 January 2021, Arsenal have scored 25 per cent fewer goals without Odegaard, while their win percentage drops from 66.4 per cent to 48.0 per cent.

Arsenal with/without Odegaard

That’s a significant drop-off, and looking at the difference between Arsenal’s Premier League numbers in 2023/24 and 2024/25 we can see his absence has had a profound impact this year.

Arsenal’s attack has declined on a number of metrics, including chances created (from 13.5 per match to 11.1 per match), shots (from 17.0 per match to 14.3 per match), and xG (from 2.0 per match to 1.6 per match).

But it isn’t just about the final ball or finish. Arsenal’s progressive passes per 90 have plummeted from 55.4 per match in 2023/24 to 39.8 per match in 2024/25, while their pass completion has fallen from 84.6 per cent to 81.1 per cent.

Arsenal attacking stats last two seasons

Arteta’s attempted solutions haven’t worked

The changes in Arsenal’s passing get to the heart of the problem. It isn’t just creativity lost, but Odegaard’s elegance binding the team together from back to front.

Arteta has struggled to find anyone capable of playing in a similar style, leading to formation changes that generally haven’t worked.

In the 1-0 defeat to Newcastle, as well as in the 2-2 draw with Liverpool, Arsenal’s 4-4-2 formation looked a little flat.

The lines were too straight and the football stodgy, mainly because a 4-4-2 creates squares where the 4-3-3 creates triangles, meaning a compressed defensive block like Newcastle’s can easily hold firm.

Beyond the shape itself, Arsenal are without a true No 10 and have been using Mikel Merino in this role. It goes without saying his numbers don’t compare to Odegaard’s, but they don’t even stand up to other midfielders in Europe.

FBRef’s comparison with every other midfielder in Europe over the last 365 days puts Merino in the 39th percentile for chances created, at 0.79 per 90.

The loss at AFC Bournemouth exemplified this. Arsenal’s defeat might be blamed on the early red card to Gabriel Magalhaes, but over the first 30 minutes prior to that moment they already looked sluggish in a 4-2-3-1 with Merino at the tip.

In the opening half hour Merino completed only 10 passes, the second-fewest in the Arsenal team behind Raheem Sterling's nine, and created zero chances.

In short, the 4-4-2 - and Merino and Declan Rice as the most creative midfielders - is no substitute for Odegaard.

Odegaard’s return should instantly make things better

For all the handwringing about Arsenal’s form, there is good reason to assume that Odegaard’s return will put the team back together again.

That might happen as soon as the trip to Chelsea on Sunday.

Should he be back for the Chelsea match, Arsenal can return to the fluid 4-3-3 formation that is etched into muscle memory following years of coaching under Arteta.

What’s more, the return of that progressive passing in midfield will surely help Saka, who, remarkably, is having a highly productive season despite seeing less of the ball.

His touches have dropped from 60.2 per 90 to 50.5 per 90, likely because he does not have Odegaard to connect with on that right side, and yet on a number of metrics Saka has been more creative than in 2023/24.

Saka's creative stats last two seasons

*Per 90

If he’s in that sort of form already, imagine the numbers Saka can hit when his partner returns.

Arsenal - with three goals in their last three Premier League fixtures - desperately need Odegaard back. Their title challenge depends on it.