Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Ipswich unnerve Amorim and wreck his debut?
- Will contract news Pep up the struggling champions?
- Maresca plots punishment for his former club
- How Arsenal can get their title hopes back on track
- Is Palace visit just what out-of-form Villa need?
- Will Liverpool's trip to Southampton be a total mismatch?
- Can Brentford end wait for an away win?
- Goal-filled south-coast derby could be on the cards
- Will Wolves build on their first victory?
- Isak eyes more goals on Monday night
Could Ipswich spoil Amorim's debut?
The Premier League has a habit of leaning into the soap opera - but it’s hard to say which result would offer the more dramatic storyline on Sunday.
Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United debut is, of course, a moment of huge significance.
But Ipswich Town is a banana-skin fixture. It’s hard to think of a tougher opening match for Amorim given that a trip to Anfield, for example, would come with lower expectations.
Man Utd are expected to win, yet Ipswich - off the back of beating Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 - are thorny opponents chasing their first home victory of the campaign.
Their compact 4-4-2, their aggressive press and their pinpoint counter-attacks led by Omari Hutchinson could make life very difficult for Man Utd should the new 3-4-3 formation be a little disjointed in the early days of Amorim.
Kieran McKenna, an ex-United coach who was linked by the media as a candidate for the Old Trafford job in the summer, will have a plan to disrupt and unsettle the visitors.
Ipswich will get in their faces, will refuse to let them settle; it’s just about as difficult an opener as Amorim could have asked for as he looks to implement a radically new tactical system.
Will Guardiola news trigger a revival?
Pep Guardiola’s contract extension as manager has shifted the mood in the build-up to Saturday’s headline fixture.
His new two-year deal will surely give the Man City players a boost, helping them to race out of the blocks and attack their problems head on.
What was most striking about Man City’s defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in their last outing, their fourth in a row in all competitions, was the hosts’ ability to pin City back.
Carlos Baleba’s energy in midfield took control, pushed City into their own third and allowed Brighton to score twice against a hesitant Guardiola side who were in retreat.
You can see clearly here how Brighton's Expected Goals (xG) total increased dramatically after half-time, while Man City's plateaued.
It’s not something you see very often and it may have been a sign of waning confidence, giving Ange Postecoglou hope that his swashbuckling approach, his furious pressing, will achieve something similar at the Etihad Stadium.
After all, Man City have won only three of their last 10 Premier League matches against Spurs. This is not the fixture Guardiola would have wanted as he looks to stop the rot.
But the contract news changes that.
If Man City are buoyant and refreshed, they may be able to take advantage of the wild end-to-end nature of Spurs matches. If they are unshackled and embrace the chaos, there will be space for Erling Haaland to stretch his legs.
Will new Palmer-Neto relationship thrive?
Over the last couple of matches Enzo Maresca has tweaked the role of Cole Palmer, encouraging his No 10 to drift out to the left rather than the right, forming a new partnership with Pedro Neto in the process.
It’s a surprising change considering Palmer and Noni Madueke have created more chances for each other (17) than any other pair of team-mates in the Premier League this season, but it happens to be the perfect strategy to beat Leicester City.
Steve Cooper’s side have been considerably more vulnerable on their right - Chelsea’s left - than on the other side.
Not only were all three of Man Utd’s goals against Leicester before the international break built down that flank, but almost every goal the Foxes concede has come down their right.
James Justin has an almighty task on his hands.
Leicester's goals conceded on the right flank 24/25
Can Odegaard pick the Forest lock?
Arsenal are without a win in four Premier League matches, as many as in their previous 25 combined. There’s a lot of pressure on Martin Odegaard’s return to first-team action.
Mikel Arteta’s side were improved in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea but still not their free-flowing selves, although Odegaard’s assist - unlocking a deep-lying Chelsea defence - is a good sign ahead of a difficult encounter with Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest.
The visitors will sit deep and frustrate, hoping that by packing the penalty area with bodies they can restrict Odegaard’s influence and draw out the slower, arrhythmic Arsenal of recent weeks.
The Gunners have held at least 55 per cent possession in only four of their 11 Premier League matches this season, having done so 25 times in 2023/24. That’s a drop from 66 per cent of matches to just 36 per cent.
Arsenal just aren’t controlling games in the same way, which is good news for Forest, who are superb at capitalising on counter-attacking opportunities that arise when possession changes hands.
Forest have won five of their last seven Premier League away matches, a testament to their ability to sit deep, hold firm and pounce on the break.
Arsenal need Odegaard on form.
Can Villa end their losing streak?
At the beginning of November nobody would have foreseen Aston Villa’s home encounter with Crystal Palace being billed as the most important match of their season.
But after four consecutive defeats in all competitions, Villa’s season is suddenly in danger of unravelling. They cannot afford to drop points at home to a side in the bottom three.
Fortunately for them, Eberechi Eze looks unlikely to pass a late fitness test, weakening a Palace attack that have already been profligate in front of goal this season.
Palace have an Expected Goals total of 14.0 but have scored only eight times - a difference of -6.0 which is the worst in the league. They also have the league’s worst conversion rate, at just 5.1 per cent.
But Villa’s Emiliano Martinez has the fourth-lowest save percentage in the Premier League, at 60.5 per cent, and has conceded 2.2 more goals than expected according to Opta’s Expected Goals on Target model. Only Alphonse Areola (-3.6) and Jose Sa (-2.9) have a worse figure.
In other words, a trip to Villa Park could be just what Palace need to improve their attacking output.
Will fast-attacking Liverpool hit Saints hard?
This feels like a mismatch in more ways than one.
Top versus bottom is a surprisingly rare occurrence. This is the first time it has happened since April 2023, when Southampton drew 3-3 with Arsenal, itself one of only two times since February 2011 that the league leaders haven't won.
History favours the team starting the match at the top in such duels - they have won 12 of the last 14 matches and drawn the other two. That is ominous enough for Southampton, but the tactical battle even more so.
Liverpool have retained the transitional speed of Jurgen Klopp’s side, happily bursting forward either on the counter-attack or when their high press wins the ball in an advanced position.
Southampton, meanwhile, are determined to pass the ball out from the back at every opportunity despite the risks involved.
One simple statistical contrast says it all. Liverpool's 19 fast breaks in the Premier League are joint-second with Tottenham Hotspur, one behind the 20 of Chelsea, while Southampton have made the second-highest number of errors leading to an opposition shot, with eight.
It is easy to imagine Southampton’s patient possession game leading to turnovers, fast breaks - and Liverpool goals.
See: Can BOTTOM beat TOP for first time in 13 years?
Can Brentford finally get a first away win?
Brentford have lost all five of their Premier League away matches so far, a record that simply has to end at Goodison Park.
They won’t get a better chance for a while. After this weekend they travel to Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Brighton in their remaining matches of 2024.
There is a very real chance Brentford won’t get an away win - or even an away point - until January 4, when they visit Southampton.
This is a must-win game, then. Everton have only won once at home, beating Crystal Palace 2-1 in September, and Sean Dyche’s side have managed only one goal across their last three matches in the Premier League.
That’s helpful for Brentford, who have been far too leaky this season, conceding 22 goals, the second-highest number behind the 27 of Wolves.
But at the other end Brentford have netted 22 times, bettered only by Spurs with 23 goals. With Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo in excellent form the visitors will be confident of outscoring their goal-shy hosts.
Will AFC Bournemouth v Brighton provide the most goals?
Andoni Iraola and Fabian Hurzeler are arguably the two Premier League managers most devoted to all-out attacking football.
Both Brighton and AFC Bournemouth prioritise attacking quickly through the thirds, both pressing hard to win the ball back before flying forward in large numbers.
It should make for a great south-coast derby on Saturday - and probably the highest-scoring of the Matchweek's 10 fixtures.
Only Spurs (121) and Man City (103) have recorded more high turnovers than Brighton's 99 this season, although Wolves, with four goals, are the only team to score more this way than Bournemouth, who have done so three times.
Both will press high, both will give the ball away and win it back multiple times in a move, and both are likely to score - and concede - big chances.
Bournemouth and Brighton rank fourth and fifth for shots taken, with 167 and 159 respectively, while Bournemouth matches average 2.7 goals and Brighton’s average 3.1.
It should be a chaotic and thoroughly entertaining affair at the Vitality Stadium.
Can Wolves build some momentum?
Wolverhampton Wanderers have played better than results would suggest, and despite the difficulty of Saturday’s match - Fulham have won their last two and Gary O'Neil's side are yet to win away - their head coach will be optimistic about his team’s chances.
Their 2-0 victory against Southampton before the international break finally ended Wolves’ winless start and could provide the impetus they need to go on a run.
After Fulham, Wolves face four of the clubs currently in the bottom seven, plus Bournemouth, in the run-up to Christmas, presenting O’Neil’s side with a huge chance to build some momentum.
Opta’s Expected Points (xPoints) table indicates where teams "should" be placed if they scored and conceded goals according to the quality of chances they create and give away.
It has Wolves on 10.12, making them one of the biggest underachievers in the league so far. In short, they aren’t playing like a team stuck in 19th spot.
A positive result at Craven Cottage would go some way to resetting the narrative of their season.
Expected Points for bottom seven clubs
| Team | Actual pts | Expected pts |
| Crystal Palace | 7.00 | 12.98 |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 12.00 | 12.98 |
| Everton | 10.00 | 12.37 |
| Wolves | 6.00 | 10.12 |
| Leicester | 10.00 | 9.91 |
| Southampton | 4.00 | 8.72 |
| Ipswich | 8.00 | 7.43 |
Isak faces his favourite opponents
This is surely a match in which Alexander Isak can shine.
Isak has scored a goal in each of his last four appearances for Newcastle in all competitions, a rich vein of form that he will expect to continue against a side who have won only one of their last four Premier League matches.
West Ham United are struggling in the bottom half of the table whereas Newcastle, following back-to-back league wins, are looking to make it three in a row for the first time since September 2023.
What’s more, Isak has scored in all three of his Premier League encounters with West Ham, netting a brace home and away against the Hammers in 2023/24.
No Newcastle player has scored multiple goals in three consecutive Premier League meetings with an opponent before. The form guide suggests there is a real possibility that could happen on Monday night.