Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Jones and Gravenberch take control against Man City?
- Why Man Utd need a fast start at home to Everton
- Can Spurs stop their yo-yo form or will Fulham's press prosper?
- Will Newcastle make possession count at Crystal Palace?
- Leicester to risk an open approach at Brentford?
- Cunha's quality to count against AFC Bournemouth?
- Ipswich have a chance to continue good form
- Can West Ham contain free-scoring Arsenal?
- Will Brighton's wingers propel the Seagulls up to second?
- Can Kamara's return help Villa contain Chelsea?
Will Jones and Gravenberch take control of a Rodri-less midfield?
For all the tactical problems piling up for Manchester City - and there are quite a few for Pep Guardiola to solve - the most infamous remains the most important.
Since Rodri’s injury Man City have faced more "big chances" than anyone else in the Premier League (30 from seven), an extraordinary statistic that highlights his importance snuffing out counter-attacks and controlling the tempo of Man City possession.
City’s 3-3 draw with Feyenoord was a new low point for the season and evidence that Guardiola’s defence is more “fragile” - to use the manager’s phrase - than it has ever been.
That suggests Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez will find the space required to break down the City defence, provided Liverpool are first able to take control of the Rodri-less midfield.
Judging by the Reds' 2-0 victory over Real Madrid on Wednesday, they will.
Curtis Jones was superb in that match, taking more touches (79) and attaining a better pass accuracy (93.1 per cent) than any other midfielder on the pitch - including the imperious Ryan Gravenberch.
Together, Jones and Gravenberch are likely to out-think and out-move their Man City counterparts, giving Liverpool the foundation required to seize the initiative and poke holes in a defence that has conceded two or more goals in each of the last six matches.
Liverpool, by contrast, have the league’s best defence, conceding only eight so far, the same number that Man City have conceded in their last three Premier League matches alone.
Will Amorim inspire another fast start to break Everton resistance?
Before their 1-1 draw with Ipswich Town, Manchester United's new head coach Ruben Amorim made it clear that increasing the players’ fitness will be the first step to improving their pressing game.
The way his team waned at Portman Road told us he was right.
With that in mind, it’s important Man Utd get off to a fast start in Amorim’s first Premier League match at Old Trafford because if Everton can hold out against the early high press it’s likely the hosts will again allow the game to drift.
Everton have drawn each of their last two Premier League matches 0-0 and have conceded only two goals across their last six. Breaking through the deep-lying Sean Dyche defence won’t be easy, especially during this period of tactical adaptation.
Crucially, Everton have conceded a mere five goals in the first half of Premier League matches this season, with only Arsenal and Liverpool conceding fewer, but have let in 12 in the second half, which is the fourth-most.
Man Utd will require fast starts until Amorim has improved their fitness, yet Everton are better than almost anyone at keeping things tight early on.
Can Postecoglou finally end the yo-yoing form or will Fulham counters hit hard?
Things have been a bit up and down at Tottenham Hotspur, quite literally. They have alternated between victory (four) and defeat (three) in their last seven Premier League matches, which is why their 4-0 win at the Etihad Stadium last weekend isn’t necessarily a sign of momentum building.
Their yo-yoing form can be explained by the tactical preferences of the opposition. Teams who play an expansive style (Man City, West Ham United and Aston Villa) get hit by Spurs’ transitions, while those who sit deep to frustrate Ange Postecoglou’s runners (Ipswich and Crystal Palace) can counter-attack to victory.
Unfortunately for Spurs fans, Fulham fall into the latter camp.
Marco Silva’s side were very unlucky to lose 3-2 at Man City in early October, when Adama Traore missed two 1v1s as the visitors repeatedly struck on the break.
Fulham have scored in their last 11 Premier League matches, the longest run in the competition right now, which is also their joint-longest ever streak in the top flight. The 4-1 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers is likely an anomaly.
They will squeeze the midfield, dig in, and hope to hit Spurs on the break, copying Ipswich’s template from a fortnight ago.
Can Glasner take advantage of Palace being put on the back foot?
It’s a similar story of possession-versus-counter at Selhurst Park, where the underdogs may have the edge precisely because they’re underdogs.
Newcastle United have won two points from the four matches in which they have held 60+ per cent possession this season (D2, L2) and 10 points from the four matches in which they have held below 40 per cent possession (W3, D1).
Newcastle possession/points comparison 24/25
| Newcastle 24/25 | Points | Points per match |
| When holding 60+% possession | 2 (D2, L2) | 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| When holding -40% possession | 10 (W3, D1) | 2.5 |
Palace are the exact opposite, albeit adjusting the parameters to account for how infrequently they ever hit the 60 per cent mark:
Crystal Palace possession/points comparison 24/25
| Palace 24/25 | Points | Points per match |
| When holding 60+% possession | 1 (D1, L3) | 0.25 |
|---|---|---|
| When holding -40% possession | 6 (W1, D3, L2) | 1.0 |
Beat Spurs, lose to Everton. Score twice on the counter-attack in a 2-2 draw with Villa, lose at Brentford. The pattern is as clear as it is for Newcastle or Spurs.
It gives Oliver Glasner’s side the advantage on Saturday, particularly if Eberechi Eze passes a late fitness test to play a part for the first time since October.
But whoever lines up for Palace, if Glasner’s side gift Newcastle the ball and invite them onto their low block, they stand a good chance of continuing a well-established trend.
Will Leicester risk opening up against high-scoring Brentford?
With reports that Leicester City are looking to appoint Ruud van Nistelrooy in the dugout in time for Saturday’s match at Brentford, even if no announcement is made, Leicester City fans will be hoping for an “incoming-manager bounce”.
If the weight is lifted off the players’ shoulders, and if the more conservative football of Steve Cooper is replaced by instruction to play with freedom, either by the new manager or the interim Ben Dawson, then perhaps Leicester can give Van Nistelrooy, or whoever takes over, the perfect start.
But to open up at Brentford would be a huge risk.
Brentford have won more home points (16) and scored more home goals (18) than any other side in the Premier League this season.
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers have conceded more home goals than Brentford’s 11, but nevertheless Thomas Frank’s side are superb at the Gtech, and Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo would expect to dominate a Leicester side that have conceded 23 goals in 12 matches - a rate of nearly two per game.
Yet it would be a big surprise if whoever is in charge was to preach caution at this early stage.
Brentford’s last three home matches have been 5-3, 4-3, and 3-2 wins. This one should be just as high-scoring.
Will Cunha continue his form against transition-focused Bournemouth?
Having won their last two Premier League matches, as much as they had in their previous 22 combined, Wolves can hope to build some momentum in the build-up to Christmas with a string of winnable fixtures.
The first of these is against AFC Bournemouth, who have won only three of their last 16 away Premier League matches - and who look particularly vulnerable in the precise area Matheus Cunha operates.
Cunha was sublime in Wolves' 4-1 victory at Fulham last weekend, scoring twice and assisting another to take his season's tally to 10 goal involvements in 11 starts.
What’s more, since his Premier League debut in January 2023, the Brazilian has both scored more goals (21) and provided more assists (10) than any other Wolves player.
He’s the player to stop, then, and yet recent games suggest Bournemouth struggle to contain No 10s.
In their last two Premier League matches, a 3-2 loss at Brentford and 2-1 home defeat by Brighton, goals were assisted from where Cunha likes to play, as shown below.
Cunha’s hot streak is likely to continue, as is Wolves’ rise up the table.
Will improving Ipswich end Forest’s good start to the season?
Consecutive defeats to Newcastle and Arsenal are understandable, but if Nottingham Forest were to lose three Premier League matches in a row - and the third coming at promoted Ipswich - then it would probably signal the end of Nuno Espirito Santo’s brilliant start to the season.
Forest could even fall out of the top 10 altogether if they were to lose, at which point a passage back into the higher echelons could be a struggle.
They travel to Manchester to play City and United in consecutive matches four days apart next week, before facing Villa (H), Brentford (A) and then hosting Spurs on Boxing Day.
Nott'm Forest's next six PL fixtures
It’s a tricky run that could see Forest plummet back towards mid-table - unless they lift spirits with a win at Portman Road.
Ipswich are in great form, however, and in Omari Hutchinson and Liam Delap have forwards in better form than even October's EA SPORTS Player of the Month Chris Wood, who needs a goal to avoid entering those Manchester fixtures on a three-match barren run.
Can Lopetegui’s improved defence slow down in-form Arsenal?
It’s been Arsenal’s week. Following a difficult spell of form for Mikel Arteta’s side the confidence with which they dispatched of Forest 3-0 last weekend and Sporting 5-1 in the UEFA Champions League, scoring eight goals in the process, has made Arsenal’s improvements one of the Premier League’s headline stories.
But West Ham ought to be given more attention for improvements that are no less significant, because after a difficult start to the 2024/25 season Julen Lopetegui’s side have now recorded back-to-back clean sheets
The reason behind this sudden turnaround is most likely the new partnership of Jean-Clair Todibo and Max Kilman, who have formed a strong understanding over the last two matches.
Should Todibo be passed fit for Saturday’s match, West Ham stand a far better chance of halting players such as Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard than they would have done a fortnight ago.
Arsenal will be confident, but it’s unlikely things will go quite as smoothly as they did in a 6-0 win for Arteta’s side in this exact fixture last season.
Can Brighton wingers take them up to second in the table?
Friday night offers Brighton & Hove Albion the chance to achieve something vanishingly rare - moving into second spot in the Premier League.
If they can dispatch of bottom club Southampton, Fabian Hurzeler will finally get the attention he deserves for an outstanding beginning to life at Brighton, where he has already overseen their best-ever start to a Premier League season.
Hurzeler will be feeling confident. Southampton concede a lot of goals from giving possession away in their own third while Brighton are one of the best high-pressers in the division. Southampton have made a division-high eight errors leading to goals, while Brighton’s passes per defensive action (PPDA), a metric to measure how intensely a team presses the ball, is 10.4, the third-best.
Beyond that, Kaoru Mitoma and Georginio Rutter are the type of direct runner who can frequently expose the Southampton defence, as we saw in dominant performances by Cunha, Salah, and Abdul Fatawu in recent defeats.
Brighton are unbeaten in their six home league matches this season. Southampton have lost all six on the road. Second place beckons for Hurzeler.
Can Kamara's return keep fast-breaking Chelsea at bay?
Villa’s 0-0 draw with Juventus in midweek might not have ended their winless run but it was an invaluable first clean sheet in eight matches, halting a defensive collapse that was threatening to take the team backwards.
Unai Emery clearly decided to go back to basics; to repair the foundations by using a more conservative set-up, hence a dry and uninspiring 90 minutes at Villa Park.
Boubacar Kamara’s return to the starting line-up closed gaps between the lines and significantly strengthened Villa’s defence against counter-attacks, which was good preparation for the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea are in the Premier League top three for fast breaks leading to a shot (17), through-balls attempted (32), and "direct attacks" (56).
With Kamara back in the side Villa won’t be as vulnerable to these moves as they were last weekend, when Youri Tielemans and Ross Barkley didn’t have the legs to stop Palace from twice scoring on the break.
Chelsea remain favourites, but if Villa’s midfield is as solid as it was against Juventus they could just snatch a victory that would put them level on points with Enzo Maresca’s side - and emphatically end their mini-slump.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
12 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
12 | +9 | 22 |
| 5 |
Brighton
BHA
|
12 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |
Spurs
TOT
|
12 | +14 | 19 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
12 | +2 | 19 |
| 8 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
12 | 0 | 19 |