Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the nine weekend fixtures could be won and lost, after the Merseyside derby was postponed, including:
- Why Man Utd can't be cautious v Nottingham Forest
- Can Brighton punish Van Nistelrooy's Leicester?
- Chelsea midfield to take charge at Spurs?
- Arsenal face stern test in Fulham
- Will De Bruyne-Grealish partnership impress again?
- Monday's six-pointer between West Ham and Wolves
- Aston Villa aim to build on midweek success
- Ipswich target crucial first home win
- Brentford eyeing maiden Newcastle victory
Will Forest lure Man Utd into danger?
The form guide points us towards a simple home win, but there is more to this match than meets the eye.
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Manchester United have won their last two Premier League matches at Old Trafford by an aggregate score of 7-0 and head coach Ruben Amorim has won his first two home matches in charge, while Nottingham Forest have lost their last two on the road by an aggregate of 6-0.
But United are still finding their feet under Amorim, and after a wide-open first 45 minutes against Everton, he hunkered down for Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat at Arsenal, using conservative tactics after issuing a warning that “a storm will come” somewhere down the line.
Forest simply won’t allow United to be as defensively cautious this weekend.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will sit back rather than press, luring United forward before hoping to counter-attack the space it leaves behind.
It presents Man Utd with a challenge - and a serious test of whether the new 3-4-3 formation can remain secure when the team are in a more expansive shape.
Will Van Nistelrooy’s style play into Brighton’s hands?
On the surface it was the perfect way to start the Ruud van Nistelrooy tenure: a 3-1 victory over West Ham United that moved Leicester City four points clear of the relegation zone.
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But it was a remarkably (and ominously) chaotic match of football in which Leicester conceded their second-highest Expected Goals (xG) of the season, with 3.1.
On the one hand, they created seven big chances against the Hammers, the joint-most on record (since 2010/11) a team has had in their first Premier League match under a new manager.
On the other, they faced 31 shots, which is also the joint-highest on record (since 2003/04) in a manager’s first Premier League match.
The move back to Enzo Maresca’s 3-2-2-3 formation and proactive attacking football was a risk that came off, but Van Nistelrooy’s approach could come unstuck against Brighton & Hove Albion.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side are as good as anyone at exploiting vulnerabilities, their speed and fluency in the transition capable of poking holes in even the best defences.
If Leicester give up a similar number of chances as they did against West Ham, Brighton will surely punish them.
Will Chelsea’s box midfield take charge at Spurs?
If it’s anything like last season's match we are in for a treat on Sunday afternoon.
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Chelsea’s 4-1 victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November 2023 was an instant classic thanks to the hosts’ two red cards and the subsequent kamikaze high line from Ange Postecoglou.
It could be just as entertaining, if not quite as iconically strange: Chelsea are the Premier League’s top scorers, with 31, while Spurs have kept only one clean sheet in their last 22 league home matches.
More significantly, the tactical battle indicates an end-to-end match. Chelsea and Spurs, with 27 and 25 respectively, rank one and two in the division for fast breaks and it’s easy to envisage the two teams happily breaking against each other at every opportunity.
That kind of match favours Chelsea, largely because the box midfield in Maresca’s 3-2-2-3 (Cole Palmer and Malo Gusto sit in front of Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia) can expose the gaps in Spurs’ formation.
Spurs press in a 4-2-4 formation, which means that once opponents break the first line they are faced with a narrow two-man midfield and a back four.
Consequently there is space in front of the Spurs full-backs - precisely the areas in which Palmer and Gusto operate.
For a visual representation, here is a Chelsea attack from their 2-0 victory over Spurs last season. As the Spurs press is broken, their flat back four and midfield two leaves space for Palmer.
Palmer is almost unstoppable no matter who the opponent. Postecoglou needs a plan.
Arsenal face toughest challenge since return to form
Arsenal have won four consecutive matches in all competitions since Martin Odegaard’s return and the most recent, a 2-0 victory against Man Utd, confirmed they are still very much in this title race.
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Still, with a seven-point gap to Liverpool, Mikel Arteta’s side cannot afford any more slip-ups and probably need to put together a Manchester City-esque string of wins to put Slot’s side under pressure.
Fulham is a stern test; Arsenal's biggest since their return to form.
Arsenal failed to beat Fulham in two attempts last season, their 2-1 defeat at Craven Cottage and 2-2 draw at Emirates Stadium arguably the two avoidable results that cost them the title.
The Gunners went 1-0 up in this fixture last season and 2-1 up at home whilst having a man advantage.
That could be a sign that Fulham have got under their skin, although if that’s true then Sunday’s match also presents Arsenal with an opportunity to prove to others, and themselves, that their recovery is built on rock-solid foundations.
It’s a must-win match and one of the biggest of Arsenal’s season to date.
Will De Bruyne-Grealish partnership star again?
Beating Nottingham Forest 3-0 was an important step for Man City, but we cannot say they are over their wobble until the away form is patched up.
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Pep Guardiola’s side have lost their last five away matches in all competitions, including their last three on the road in the Premier League, conceding twice in each match. They haven’t lost four consecutively since April 2015.
Crystal Palace will not make it easy. They have lost only one of their last five Premier League matches and have previously caused a few problems against Man City by sitting deep, blocking the middle, and counter-attacking against the high line.
In other words, Palace have a history of doing to Guardiola’s side exactly what others have been over the last five weeks.
However, the return of Kevin De Bruyne - and a new attacking formation - still gives City the advantage.
De Bruyne assisted the first goal and scored the second against Forest, benefiting from spaces opened up by his central attacking midfield partner Jack Grealish.
De Bruyne's goal v Forest
Our Belgian duo make it two 🇧🇪
— Manchester City (@ManCity) December 5, 2024
⚡️ @JeremyDoku 🤝 @KevinDeBruyne 👑 pic.twitter.com/x2mFZlbkki
Guardiola will expect these two to dismantle Palace in much the same way.
De Bruyne has been involved in four goals in his last four starts in the Premier League - and has 12 goal involvements against Palace in the Premier League.
Who will win crucial six-pointer?
It might not look like the headline fixture of Matchweek 15 but there is no bigger match in the Premier League than Monday night’s six-pointer at the London Stadium.
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Recent results have increased the scrutiny on Julen Lopetegui and Gary O’Neil, who both need a win to ease the pressure.
West Ham and Wolves have each conceded eight goals across their last two matches, Wolves going down 4-0 to Everton and 4-2 to AFC Bournemouth, and West Ham losing 3-1 to Leicester and 5-2 to Arsenal.
Wolves have conceded 36 goals, more than any other Premier League side this season. West Ham have conceded 71 goals this calendar year, another division-high.
There ought to be action in this one, which is exciting for the neutral - and nerve-shredding for supporters of the two clubs.
Can Villa build on midweek win?
Aston Villa’s 3-1 victory over Brentford on Wednesday could be a season-defining one.
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Unai Emery badly needed something to lift his side out of their slump and he got it in the form of Morgan Rogers, whose brilliant opener helped Villa race into a 3-0 lead within the opening 35 minutes.
To carry momentum forward – and to put a difficult few weeks behind them – Villa need another fast start against bottom club Southampton.
Saints are the only side yet to score a first half away goal in the Premier League this season, while they have also had the fewest shots (29) and fewest shots on target (5) in the first 45 minutes of matches away from St Mary’s.
Emery and Villa have a good record against promoted clubs: they are unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches under Emery (W9 D2) and have won five out of six at home.
What’s more, Ollie Watkins, who scored and assisted against Brentford, has 10 goal involvements in his last five Premier League appearances against promoted clubs.
If Villa start confidently they should be able to put Southampton to the sword before the break.
Can Ipswich get vital home win?
It isn’t hyperbole to suggest Ipswich Town’s season could hinge on Saturday’s result.
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A 1-0 defeat at home to Palace in midweek extended their winless start at Portman Road to seven matches, piling pressure onto arguably their last winnable home encounter until February.
After AFC Bournemouth, Ipswich welcome Newcastle United, Chelsea, Brighton, and Man City to Portman Road before they host Southampton on 1 February.
If Ipswich begin the seventh month of the 2024/25 season still without a home Premier League win, they surely cannot avoid relegation.
And without meaning to add to supporters’ nerves, Bournemouth are potentially there for the taking.
They lost their last Premier League match against a promoted club, a 1-0 defeat at Leicester in early October that handed the Foxes their first home win of the season.
Ipswich need to match Leicester’s achievement.
Can Brentford finally get a win against Newcastle?
Brentford have never beaten Newcastle in the Premier League, winning just a single point from six attempts.
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But having won a competition-high 19 home points this season, Brentford have never had a better chance to end the curse - and pull three points clear of Eddie Howe’s side.
Brentford’s lopsided season continued in midweek with defeat at Villa, which left them with both the worst away record in the division (one point) and the best home record (19).
If they are to stay in the hunt for European qualification, then, they need to win almost all of their matches at the Gtech Community Stadium against the teams around them.
Meanwhile Newcastle, winless in three, are in danger of falling out of contention for a top-four finish and badly need a win this Saturday.
On 20 points from 14 matches, Newcastle are six points worse off than at this stage last season, a year that ended with Howe’s side eight points short of the UEFA Champions League spots.
They could really do with a string of victories in the run-up to Christmas.
