As Nottingham Forest head to Brentford in fourth place, Alex Keble takes a look at how they have evolved under Nuno Espirito Santo.
Team analysis: Nottingham Forest
Forest are the Premier League’s surprise package in more ways than one.
Nuno Espirito Santo, who took charge exactly one year ago today, has overseen the fastest rise from relegation candidates to UEFA Champions League hopefuls since Leicester City eight years ago.
Nothing illustrates the size of that leap quite like their win record. In 2022/23 and again in 2023/24, Forest ended the campaign with only nine Premier League wins. They have already reached eight victories this season.
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Indeed, Forest’s 28 points from 16 matches is their best return at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1994/95 (also 28), a year they went on to finish third.
Third place would require the unlikely feat of finishing above one of Liverpool, Arsenal, or Chelsea, but what about fourth?
That’s not entirely out of the question, because Forest’s league position isn’t the only surprising thing about them.
Nuno’s tactics are a total outlier; a counterpoint to the fashions of the day. It’s that very difference that is catching out their so-called progressive opponents.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
21 | +30 | 50 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
22 | +22 | 44 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
22 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
22 | +15 | 38 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
22 | +12 | 38 |
Forest’s retro tactics are the key to their success
The defining features of the modern Premier League are pressing hard, passing carefully out from the back, and keeping possession.
Not for Forest they aren’t.
Nuno’s side rank 19th in the Premier League for average possession (40.9 per cent), 20th for pass completion (75.8 per cent), and 20th for passes per defensive action (PPDA), a measure of pressing intensity, with 15.8.
Forest possession, pass completion and PPDA 24/25
| Stat | Total | PL rank |
| Possession % | 40.9% | 19th |
|---|---|---|
| Pass completion % | 75.8% | 20th |
| PPDA | 15.8 | 20th |
Although there is of course variety in what Forest do, and detail in their passing patterns and off-the-ball work, it is fair to characterise them in broad strokes as a team who sit back to prioritise defensive solidity and counter-attacking.
Put simply, they are the polar opposite to the high pressing and possession that shapes the rest of the league.
The lack of pressure applied, and the depth of that defensive shell, is captured in a variety of stats that show opponents are allowed to carry the ball deep into their territory.
Forest progressive carries, passes and open-play sequences 24/25
| Stat | Total | PL rank |
| Prog. carries allowed | 412 | 1st |
|---|---|---|
| Prog. carries into final third allowed | 276 | 1st |
| Prog. passes allowed | 808 | 1st |
| 10+ open-play pass sequences allowed | 229 | 2nd |
By dropping back, Forest force aimless possession by refusing to allow the opposition to get in behind the defence. They have caught the fewest offsides (17) and allowed the fewest through-balls (18).
This problem for opponents is only exacerbated by Forest’s safety in possession. By going longer, by counter-attacking in two and threes, and by rarely passing out from the back, the opposition’s high press is completely negated.
A total of 76.9 per cent of passes made by the Forest goalkeeper are launched long, way ahead of Everton in second, on 54.7 per cent.
That’s just another example of how Forest invert the tactical fashions of the day.
By doing so, they undermine attempts to press high, to have purposeful possession, or to deploy fast transitions in the Forest half.
They are a conundrum: a throwback to Jose Mourinho football - and nobody has quite worked out what to do about it.
Murillo and Milenkovic lead a stable backline
That’s the tactical theory, but it still requires high-quality players to work so well, and the most important element is the centre-back partnership of Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic.
Since arriving from Fiorentina in the summer, Milenkovic has played every Premier League game alongside Murillo, bar the 1-1 home draw with AFC Bournemouth on the opening weekend.
In fact, his absence that day is the only Premier League game this season in which Matz Sels, Murillo, Milenkovic, and Ola Aina haven’t all started together.
That consistency has helped form strong relationships in a defence that packs bodies around the box and minimises risks.
Forest have made a division-low five errors leading to shots, while winning 52.8 per cent of their ground duels, a competition-high, and have the third-best Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the Premier League of 17.3, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal.
Forest's defensive stats 24/25
| Stat | Total | PL rank |
| xGA | 17.3 | 3rd |
|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded | 19 | =3rd |
| Errors leading to shots | 5 | 1st |
More than anything else, it’s Murillo and Milenkovic making the big difference as a "yin and yang" partnership at the back: Murillo is the aggressive front-foot defender while Milenkovic is the powerful giant, sweeping up behind.
Wood is fulcrum of Forest’s attack
Although the introduction of Elliot Anderson (five assists) has added more guile into midfield, Forest’s attacking setup remains reliant on wingers Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi creating space out wide - and crosses falling onto the head of Chris Wood.
Wood, who recently became Forest's record Premier League scorer when he netted his 25th top-flight goal for them, has scored 21 times in the division since Nuno’s arrival. Only two players from other clubs, Cole Palmer (23) and Erling Haaland (26), have higher tallies in that period.
Forest have scored six headed goals this season, the joint-most in the division, and they top the charts for shots from headers (47). They have attempted 333 crosses, the third-highest number in the Premier League.
Unsurprisingly, many of these are from set-pieces, a big focus for Forest.
Forest have taken the second-highest number of shots from set-pieces in the Premier League (67) and only Arsenal, with eight, have scored more goals that way than Forest’s six.
Indeed, Arsenal are the only side who have a higher percentage of their total xG coming from set-pieces, 33.26 per cent.
This might in fact be a slight problem; an over-reliance that signals an area for improvement.
More needed in attack to sustain their form
Forest have scored only 21 goals, the fifth-fewest, while only those in the current bottom five have accrued a lower xG than Forest’s 19.7.
This is explained by the regression in Forest’s counters. Their "fast breaks" and "direct attacks" are down considerably from last season.
Forest direct attacks and fast breaks 23/24 v 24/25
| Season | Direct attacks (rank) | Fast breaks (rank) |
| 23/24 | 144 (8th) | 45 (2nd) |
|---|---|---|
| 24/25 | 49 (15th) | 18 (7th) |
Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, and Morgan Gibbs-White have 10 Premier League goal involvements combined as we approach the halfway point, whereas in 2023/24 they had accrued 38.
More incisiveness from this trio is perhaps needed long-term, because Forest have little margin for error at the current rate.
Their goal difference stands at just +2. Over the last five Premier League seasons, the average goal difference of the team that finished fourth is +23.2.
Their record here is an anomaly then, although that isn’t necessarily a problem.
Forest’s tactical success is predicated on being an anomaly; on hitting the Premier League with ideas so old they look new.
Forget how it’s supposed to be done. Forest are going their own way - and Champions League football is in their sights.
