Liverpool will be TOP of the Premier League at Christmas following their 6-3 win at Tottenham Hotspur.
It's a record 21st time they have led England's top flight on 25 December, but how often does the team in pole position at this festive stage of the season go on to win the title? And what does being in the bottom three at this time of year mean for the clubs battling relegation?
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
21 | +30 | 50 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
22 | +22 | 44 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
22 | +11 | 44 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
22 | +17 | 40 |
| 5 |
Man City
MCI
|
22 | +15 | 38 |
Liverpool fans will know all too well that being the Christmas No 1 is by no means a guarantee of a step towards the league title.
In the 21 campaigns when they have been top on 25 December, they have only gone on to be champions 11 times. In the Premier League era the record is worse. This is the seventh time - equal with Manchester United - that Liverpool have been No 1 since 1992, but with only one title won from the previous six occasions.
History shows that only half of the Christmas leaders go on to win the Premier League title.
In 16 of the Premier League's 32 full seasons so far, the team sitting top on 25 December went on to lift the trophy, but in the other 16 campaigns they missed out.
Indeed, in four of the last six seasons, the team in first place at Christmas have failed to finish the season as champions. Arsenal were the last team to suffer this fate, in both of the last two campaigns.
The Gunners were six points clear of Manchester City on Christmas Day last year but ultimately finished two points BEHIND them in May.
In fact, Arsenal have not won the title in any of the four seasons when they have topped the Premier League table at Christmas, finishing second in 2002/03, 2022/23 and 2023/24, and third in 2007/08.
Fate of Christmas leaders
| Season | Team | Final pos. | Season | Team | Final pos. |
| 92/93 | Norwich | 3rd | 09/10 | Chelsea | 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93/94 | Man Utd | 1st | 10/11 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 94/95 | Blackburn | 1st | 11/12 | Man City | 1st |
| 95/96 | Newcastle | 2nd | 12/13 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 96/97 | Liverpool | 4th | 13/14 | Liverpool | 2nd |
| 97/98 | Man Utd | 2nd | 14/15 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 98/99 | Aston Villa | 6th | 15/16 | Leicester | 1st |
| 99/00 | Leeds | 3rd | 16/17 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 00/01 | Man Utd | 1st | 17/18 | Man City | 1st |
| 01/02 | Newcastle | 4th | 18/19 | Liverpool | 2nd |
| 02/03 | Arsenal | 2nd | 19/20 | Liverpool | 1st |
| 03/04 | Man Utd | 3rd | 20/21 | Liverpool | 3rd |
| 04/05 | Chelsea | 1st | 21/22 | Man City | 1st |
| 05/06 | Chelsea | 1st | 22/23 | Arsenal | 2nd |
| 06/07 | Man Utd | 1st | 23/24 | Arsenal | 2nd |
| 07/08 | Arsenal | 3rd | 24/25 | Liverpool | ? |
| 08/09 | Liverpool | 2nd |
Don't write anyone off
The last four occasions when the Christmas leaders have been overtaken, it has been Man City who have come from behind to be crowned champions.
They were eight points behind Liverpool in 2020/21, and four points behind Liverpool two seasons prior. Last season, they were six points adrift of Arsenal in fifth place.
City's climb from fifth place in 2023/24 made it the fourth time a team outside the top four on Christmas Day has been crowned champions at the end of the season. The previous three were achieved by Man Utd, who were fifth in 1996/97, Arsenal (sixth in 1997/98) and City (eighth in 2020/21).
It was also the ninth season in which a team in third place or lower at Christmas has gone on to win the title.
City sit seventh on 25 December this year but after a run of six defeats in eight Premier League matches, it is likely that Pep Guardiola and the fans are more concerned about finishing in the top four than they are about topping the table.
Champions to come from behind at Xmas
| Season | Team | Pts behind at Xmas | Position at Xmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992/93 | Man Utd | 5 | 4th |
| 1995/96 | Man Utd | 10 | 2nd |
| 1996/97 | Man Utd | 7 | 5th |
| 1997/98 | Arsenal | 13 | 6th |
| 1998/99 | Man Utd | 5 | 3rd |
| 1999/00 | Man Utd | 2 | 2nd |
| 2001/02 | Arsenal | 3 | 2nd |
| 2002/03 | Man Utd | 4 | 3rd |
| 2003/04 | Arsenal | 1 | 2nd |
| 2007/08 | Man Utd | 1 | 2nd |
| 2008/09 | Man Utd | 7 | 4th |
| 2013/14 | Man City | 1 | 3rd |
| 2018/19 | Man City | 4 | 2nd |
| 2020/21 | Man City | 8 | 8th |
| 2022/23 | Man City | 5 | 2nd |
| 2023/24 | Man City | 6 | 5th |
The record for being the most points off the top at Christmas before going on to win the Premier League title belongs to Arsenal, who were 13 points behind Man Utd in 1997/98.
This would give hope to Newcastle United, who are currently eighth, 13 points behind Liverpool.
On the flip side, the unwanted record of the lowest finishing position for a team who sat top at Christmas belongs to Aston Villa, who fell to sixth in 1998/99.
Bottom three at Christmas
At the other end of the table, what do relegation places on Christmas Day tell us about how things will finish in May?
The bottom three are occupied by Wolverhampton Wanderers, Ipswich Town and Southampton. Hope for them is that while the bottom three on 25 December 2023 (Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United) stayed the same at the end of last season, this happens rarely.
Only on three other occasions have the bottom three teams at Christmas all been relegated at the season's end: 2001/02 - Derby County, Leicester City, Ipswich; 2012/13 - Wigan Athletic, Queens Park Rangers, Reading; 2020/21 - Fulham, West Bromwich Albion, Sheff Utd.
On four occasions, the team at the bottom on Christmas Day have managed to stay up, and all have come in the last 20 years: 2004/05 - West Brom; 2013/14 - Sunderland; 2014/15 - Leicester; 2022/23 - Wolves.
Two sides who were in the top 10 on 25 December have fallen into the relegation zone on the final day. Blackpool went down despite being 10th in 2010/11. Even the team in seventh place, which is currently occupied by Man City, have once fallen away to the extent that they were relegated - Norwich in 1994/95.
