Adrian Clarke looks at key players, team tactics, and where matches can be won and lost in Matchweek 18.
Player analysis: Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
Arsenal’s title hopes have been dealt a severe blow with the news that a hamstring injury will keep Bukayo Saka out for ‘many weeks’.
The England international has been the Gunners’ best player this season, providing 10 assists and five goals for Mikel Arteta’s side in the Premier League.
Now Saka is missing for the busiest period of the campaign, all eyes are on how the Arsenal manager finds a way to ensure his No 7's absence does not derail his side’s trophy aspirations…
Why is Saka so important?
So much of Arsenal’s best attacking play come down their right flank, with Arteta setting his team up in a way that is designed to get Saka onto the ball in 1v1s as often as possible.
With Jurrien Timber and Martin Odegaard working in close proximity on Saka's inside, the Gunners provide opponents with so many headaches in that area of the pitch.
The 23-year-old has looked stronger and more powerful than ever with the ball at his feet this term, consistently providing game-changing moments.
Very much their ‘go-to’ player, far more of Arsenal’s attacks stem from Saka's side of the field compared with the left or centre.
Arsenal attacking flanks PL 24/25
Saka’s output in 2024/25 has been nothing short of outstanding.
Creating 19 'big chances' - six more than anyone else in the Premier League - the wide man also scores highly for assists, touches inside the opposition box, and for key passes, ranking second in the division for those metrics.
Only Mohamed Salah on 26, and Cole Palmer on 17, are ahead of him in terms of direct goal involvements (15).
Arsenal attacking stats PL 24/25
| Goals & assists | Chances created | Big chances created | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | 15 | Saka | 42 | Saka | 19 |
| Havertz | 8 | Odegaard | 24 | Rice | 7 |
| Martinelli | 6 | Rice | 24 | Odegaard | 5 |
| Touches in opp. box | Dribbles completed | Shots | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | 127 | Saka | 33 | Saka | 46 |
| Martinelli | 84 | Martinelli | 16 | Havertz | 37 |
| Havertz | 75 | Odegaard | 14 | Trossard | 22 |
When you analyse his impact for Arsenal (see above) he is by some distance their most impactful player inside the final third.
His level of end product is impossible to replace, so while he is out of action, a collective effort will be required from Arteta’s front men.
If others do not step up, the team is sure to suffer.
Arteta’s main man
In Arteta's five years as Arsenal boss, he has not selected any individual more than Saka.
Saka was included in the Spaniard's very first starting XI, as a left-back, and the Hale End academy graduate has been a must-pick ever since, predominantly as a right-sided forward.
Since the start of 2021/22, Saka has been unavailable for just four of Arsenal's 93 Premier League matches.
Arsenal players with the most minutes under Arteta
| Player | Mins played |
| Bukayo Saka | 14,206 |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Magalhaes | 12,789 |
| Martin Odegaard | 10,717 |
| Ben White | 9,636 |
| Granit Xhaka | 9,350 |
Has Saka’s heavy workload gradually caught up on him? It looks that way, as until now the winger had not suffered any muscle injuries.
There is an argument that this, his third hamstring problem of the campaign, could at least be in part down to fatigue.
Saka has a vast amount of playing experience, racking up his 250th appearance for the club in all competitions on Saturday against Crystal Palace, just three months after celebrating his 23rd birthday.
The stats below indicate just how much senior football Saka has been involved in, compared with players born after him on 5 September 2001.
The difference is quite remarkable, and a testament to his talent and durability.
Saka's minutes and matches compared with peers
| Player | Age | Mins played |
| Bukayo Saka | 23 | 14,709 |
|---|---|---|
| Moises Caicedo | 23 | 8,183 |
| Michael Olise | 23 | 5,170 |
| Player | Age | Matches played |
| Bukayo Saka | 23 | 186 |
|---|---|---|
| Moises Caicedo | 23 | 97 |
| Anthony Elanga | 22 | 92 |
An elite talent
Saka has scored 67 goals and made 63 assists since making his debut in November 2018.
Scoring 20 times last season, he accounted for 17.7 per cent of all goals scored by Arsenal. This season, his tally of nine goals in all competitions represents a 16.1 per cent share.
If you break down Saka’s numbers since the start of 2021/22, when he became a regular presence in the side, Liverpool’s Salah is the only player to have had more shots and touches inside the box.
Most shots and touches inside the box in the last three seasons
| Touches in opp. box | Total shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 1,088 | Mohamed Salah | 436 |
| Bukayo Saka | 891 | Bukayo Saka | 340 |
| Ollie Watkins | 685 | Bruno Fernandes | 326 |
When it comes to creating chances across the last three-and-a-half seasons he is above Kevin De Bruyne, with Bruno Fernandes and Odegaard being the only players to have supplied more opportunities.
Most chances created in the last three seasons
| Player | Chances Created (inc. assists) |
| Bruno Fernandes | 360 |
|---|---|
| Martin Odegaard | 279 |
| Bukayo Saka | 276 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 269 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 255 |
The matches he could miss
Saka will miss two big Premier League home matches in January, against Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa. There is also a chance he will not be involved at home to Manchester City on the first weekend of February.
Arsenal's next five Premier League matches
The Gunners will also have to make do without their most productive player for clashes against Newcastle United (EFL Cup semi-final), Manchester United (FA Cup 3rd round), Dinamo Zagreb and Girona (UEFA Champions League) outside of Premier League action.
Navigating such a busy schedule, packed with must-win matches, will not be easy for Arsenal without such an influential figure.
How can Arsenal replace Saka?
Reacting to news that Saka will be absent for several weeks, Arteta said, "I’m putting some ideas together. I haven’t got there yet but I’ve got a few. It’s going to mean we are going to be different."
Based on what we saw from Gabriel Martinelli on the right wing against Palace, the Brazilian is the most suitable like-for-like replacement.
Scoring and making an assist after switching flanks, the 24-year-old used his blistering pace and right foot to great effect in that contest.
His ability to drive past full-backs on the outside, like he did for Kai Havertz’s goal at Selhurst Park, could give Arsenal a new dimension down that right wing.
Havertz's goal v Palace
Perfect position to prod it home 🤝 pic.twitter.com/MaEn12C2xn
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 22, 2024
Arteta's options
If the Spaniard sticks with the same formation and style he usually deploys, but used Martinelli on right, Arsenal could look like this, below:
4-1-4-1 with Martinelli replacing Saka on right wing
The loss of such a productive talent may prompt Arteta to look at naming more attack-minded starting XIs, effectively adding an extra creative player to his side.
He did this against Palace prior to Saka’s injury, using Havertz in midfield so he could keep in-form Gabriel Jesus in the team.
If Arteta's 4-1-4-1 is to feature twin attacking midfielders, this is how it might look (below), especially against Ipswich Town at home on 27 December.
4-1-4-1 with Havertz alongside Odegaard in midfield
In some of their tougher fixtures it is hard to envisage Arteta playing in such an adventurous manner, so he has to look at alternatives.
While Odegaard was out injured, he toyed with a 4-4-2, and this could be back on his agenda in the coming weeks.
From a solid midfield base that features Declan Rice, Thomas Partey or Mikel Merino, we may see Odegaard move to a narrow right-wing role, with Leandro Trossard mirroring that on the left.
This system would be fluid enough to allow the front four to move around freely and create much-needed chaos.
A strong double-pivot base will be behind to offer protection, and in this system we would see right-back Timber pushing forward with greater assertiveness offering width on the outside of his captain.
4-4-2 with Trossard and Odegaard as narrow wingers
Arteta has openly admitted Arsenal will have to be different without Saka, so the key to how they get on without him will depend largely on the tactical decisions that the manager makes.
A busy Christmas period is likely to see the Gunners' boss experimenting with more than one new idea.
