Analysis: What is causing Chelsea's mid-season slump?

Football writer Adrian Clarke casts his eye over Chelsea's four-match winless run in the Premier League.

Chelsea did not enjoy the Christmas period, collecting just two points from the 12 which were available.

Enzo Maresca’s side would have expected a far bigger tally, especially as three of their four opponents have been in the bottom half of the table all season - Everton, Ipswich Town, and Crystal Palace.

Chelsea

Sun 22 Dec
(A)

0 - 0 D

Thu 26 Dec
(H)

1 - 2 L

Mon 30 Dec
(A)

2 - 0 L

Sat 04 Jan
(A)

1 - 1 D

Chelsea

Sun 22 Dec
(A)

0 - 0 D

Thu 26 Dec
(H)

1 - 2 L

Mon 30 Dec
(A)

2 - 0 L

Sat 04 Jan
(A)

1 - 1 D

Let’s take a closer look at some of the reasons behind Chelsea's mid-season slump.

What’s gone wrong in attack?

Chelsea dipped in creativity during the festive period, falling short of their average tally of expected goals (xG) in all four matches.

Across the first 16 matchweeks (MW), the Blues had an xG of 2.18 per game, but none of their most recent outings came close to that.

Chelsea's xG below par in last four matches

We did see a sumptuous solo goal from Cole Palmer against Fulham, and Jadon Sancho produced a glorious assist for the same player at Palace, but inventiveness was in shorter supply than usual.

The finishing has also been sub-standard by Chelsea’s standards.

Nicolas Jackson and Marc Cucurella missed gilt-edged chances from close range against Everton and Fulham respectively.

Everton v Chelsea highlights

In Chelsea's 2-0 loss at Ipswich, Christopher Nkunku failed to convert an open-goal rebound after Palmer’s shot hit the post, while Jackson also squandered a close-range volley at Selhurst Park.

Maresca’s men had been one of the division’s most clinical sides until mid-December.

Prior to Chelsea's 2-1 win against Brentford in their 16th match, their average rate for chance conversion stood at 15.55 per cent.

Their rate was well below that figure in each of the last five matches, dragging their average for the season down to 12.38 per cent.

Chelsea converting fewer chances in last five matches

Some other unwanted stats were also gathered over Christmas.

Chelsea had 20 shots against Ipswich, their most attempts without scoring in a Premier League away match since December 2017.

And they mustered just one shot on target against Palace, their fewest in a match they have scored in since October 2021.

Between now and the end of the season, to account for fluctuations in form, it is vital for Chelsea to rely a little less on the goalscoring prowess of Palmer and Jackson.

The pair have scored 22 of Chelsea's 39 Premier League goals, a 56.4 per cent share.

Has Chelsea’s off-the-ball work dropped off?

An element of aggression has been missing from Chelsea in recent matches.

Maresca’s side have been hostile and belligerent out of possession for the bulk of 2024/25, but they have been a lot more placid of late. The stats back this up.

In their last three matches, the Blues have won fewer tackles than their average for the first 16 matchweeks (10).

Last time out, in the 1-1 draw with Palace, Chelsea's success rate in duels was also at its lowest for the season, at 38.04 per cent.

Chelsea's tackling success has decreased

Full-backs out of form

It was a difficult Christmas for Chelsea’s defensive players, especially their full-backs.

Axel Disasi's poorly selected pass was intercepted by Ipswich inside his own half, a costly error which led to Chelsea conceding a crucial second goal, scored by Omari Hutchinson.

Hutchinson's goal v Chelsea

Malo Gusto’s marking and awareness was also below par against Everton and Palace.

The Frenchman was bailed out by Chelsea 'keeper Robert Sanchez after allowing Jack Harrison to get behind him at Goodison Park, but Eberechi Eze punished him with a goal for losing concentration against the Eagles.

Usually reliable, Gusto has had a drop in form.

Harrison (No 11) gets in behind Gusto (circled)

Eze receives the ball ahead of Gusto

In general, Chelsea’s back four has been pulled out of position far more easily in the last four matches, compared with what happened before Christmas.

Maresca’s desire to push his full-backs high and central has worked as an attacking tool this term, but in recent matches, opponents have found a way to make it a weakness.

For their winning goal at Stamford Bridge, Fulham attacked Chelsea on the break, when the hosts' left-back Cucurella was ahead of the ball. 

This had a domino effect with both of the Blues' central defenders being drawn left, leaving scorer Rodrigo Muniz free inside the box, on the inside of covering right-back Gusto.

Fulham attack with Cucurella behind the ball

It was a similar story against Ipswich and Palace, where we saw frequent examples of Chelsea’s back four being stretched and pulled out of position.

Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if their Italian head coach adopts a more pragmatic approach to their shape.

From transitions, there is no doubt that Chelsea’s centre-backs are regularly exposed to overloads that cause them to shuffle across and defend in wider channels.

Is there a lack of trust in the subs?

Across a very busy festive period, you come to expect plenty of changes from Premier League managers, who also take the opportunity to freshen up their team with multiple substitutions.

Unusually, Maresca shied away from that ploy.

While he did rotate his XI at Ipswich, starting Joao Felix, Noni Madueke and Nkunku, the Italian has otherwise been reticent to make alterations.

Chelsea using fewer subs in last four matches

Despite his team's poor performances against Everton, Fulham and Palace, the Chelsea head coach made only five substitutions in total across those three matches – and his earliest change was on 73 minutes.

In the first 16 matchweeks, he made an average of four substitutions per match.

He has also asked Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez to play the full 90 minutes plus added time in eight and nine successive matches respectively, pointing towards a lack of depth or trust in alternative central-midfield options.

With opponents becoming increasingly familiar with Maresca’s tactical approach - and potentially more aware of their weaknesses – it has been a testing spell for Chelsea.

The second half of this campaign could be more challenging than the first.