Analysis: Are Man City on their way back to their best?

After three wins and a draw in Manchester City’s last four matches, Alex Keble analyses the champions' recent resurgence and what has changed.

“Much better. Maybe not our best, but closer.”

Pep Guardiola’s analysis of Manchester City’s biggest ever Premier League away win was understandably restrained.

There hasn’t been much to celebrate this season. An extraordinary run of one victory in 13 matches in all competitions from 30 October to 26 December toppled Man City’s title challenge and, for a while, looked like it could spell the end of a physically and mentally bruised Guardiola.

It’s no wonder, then, that Guardiola refused to get carried away by a 6-0 victory at Ipswich Town, nor by a run of 10 points from their last four Premier League matches.

Nevertheless that sequence does suggest Man City are on their way back, and along with Erling Haaland’s bumper new contract and a busy-looking January window it raises the prospect of a strong first half of 2025.

Foden's return helping City get control of matches 

Once Man City had a two-goal lead at Portman Road they looked visibly relaxed, taking control in typical Guardiola style: death by a thousand passes.

This follows a trend over the last four matches, when Man City have beaten Leicester City and West Ham United and drawn with Brentford.

Comparing these four matches with their previous 18 in the Premier League this season, it’s notable that Man City are dribbling less and making fewer progressive passes, by around 25 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.

Man City's passing and dribbling compared 24/25

Here is evidence Man City have slowed down a little, going sideways and recycling rather than allowing matches to become stretched with dribbles and vertical passes through the thirds.

Even better evidence is City’s "touch" numbers, which are down by around 50 per match, yet significantly up in their own third.

Where Man City have had their touches 

Until recently they had been struggling to control matches without the metronomic Rodri setting the tempo. It seems that, as Kevin De Bruyne returns to fitness, some balance has been restored to midfield.

However, rather than increased possession control leading to goals and wins, it might be the other way round, as the pattern at Ipswich suggested.

Perhaps being more clinical in front of goal calms nerves, gives City that old psychological advantage, and allows for the patient passing football to return.

Certainly Leicester and West Ham poured through Man City with alarming ease when the scores were 0-0, only for things to settle after City’s goals.

In fact, Guardiola’s side have allowed 19.0 progressive passes per 90 over the last four matches, up significantly from 14.7 per 90.

Maybe the difference, then, is simply being ruthless in the box. Again comparing the last four matches with the previous 18, Man City’s conversion rate has more than doubled, from 13.8 to 28.6, with Phil Foden the main catalyst here, scoring five goals in three matches.

What’s more, Man City have created 4.0 big chances per 90, compared with 2.8 per 90 previously, reflecting their growing creativity now that De Bruyne and Foden are finding form together.

Those "progressive passes allowed" figures mentioned above aren’t good, mind, and on a number of metrics Man City’s defence hasn’t really improved over the last few weeks - aside from the amount of errors being made.

Man City's defensive stats compared

Are Man City simply benefiting from favourable fixtures?

Man City have won 21 of their last 22 Premier League matches against promoted clubs, so the Ipswich and Leicester wins were to be expected, while the dropped points at Brentford were a concern and West Ham were coming to the end of the Julen Lopetegui era.

Guardiola has a right, then, to be a little subdued in his praise. Man City’s defensive work needs to improve before we can say they are out of the woods.

Can they re-enter the title race?

Even if that happens, it is surely too little, too late.

Man City can reach a maximum of 86 points this season if they win all 16 of their remaining matches, while Liverpool can get to that number with 12 wins and five defeats.

Title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	21	+30	50
2	Arsenal ARS	22	+22	44
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	22	+11	44
4	Chelsea CHE	22	+17	40
5	Man City MCI	22	+15	38

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Guardiola conceded the title in late December, and more recently Foden admitted defeat following the 2-2 draw with Brentford.

“The title? Yeah, yeah, it's done for sure, it's done,” Foden said. "We know. We're not stupid.”

That does not mean City can’t have their say in the title race, and it certainly doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for.

In their next seven matches Man City play every other current top six team, plus Tottenham Hotspur – who have a history of beating them – and high-flying Brighton & Hove Albion.

Either City will disrupt the title race, then, or - with such tough fixtures coming up - the improvements seen over the last four matches will disappear against attackers better equipped to capitalise on City’s flaws.

The former is as likely as the latter. Guardiola has averaged 38.5 points through the final 16 matches of a season, or around 13 wins. That would almost certainly be enough for a top-four finish, which has to be the aim from here on in.

Man City's points average in final 16 matches by season

Even a second-place finish is on the cards, which would be a commendable achievement in the circumstances and ensure spirits are high ahead of a busy summer rebuild.

Man City haven’t recovered just yet. But a strong second half of the season suddenly looks possible, and with that comes hope, not just of a happier 2025 but - somewhere down the line - a seventh league title in the Guardiola era.