Feature

What does each club need in their final European league match?

By Ben Bloom 28 Jan 2025
What clubs need in Europe

Ben Bloom looks at what's at stake for sides in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League

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This week sees the final league-phase matches of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League.

With places in the last 16 and the playoffs of each competition up for grabs, the six Premier League clubs involved - Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur - have plenty to play for.

Football writer Ben Bloom looks at what is at stake for the English contingent this week, as well as what's next for Chelsea in the UEFA Conference League.

Champions League

With the expansion of the competition and a new format this season, the 36-team league essentially divides into three after the eighth and final round of fixtures, with every match taking place at 20:00 GMT this Wednesday.

The top eight teams qualify automatically for the last 16, with those ties being played on March 4-5 and 11-12. The 16 teams placed ninth to 24th will have to compete in a two-legged playoff on February 11-12 and 18-19 to earn their own spots in the last 16.

Everyone below 24th place in the league table is eliminated.

Every place matters in the league phase, because each club's finishing position determines their seeding for the knockout phase, and potentially allows for an easier route through to the final.

Liverpool (1st)

Final league-phase fixture: PSV Eindhoven (A)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
AC Milan 1-3 (W) A
Bologna 2-0 (W) H
RB Leipzig 0-1 (W) A
Leverkusen 4-0 (W) H
Real Madrid 2-0 (W) H
Girona 0-1 (W) A
Lille 2-1 (W) H

As the only team in the competition with a flawless record of seven wins from seven matches, Liverpool are flying high at the top of the league and guaranteed to advance straight through to the last 16 in either first or second place.

In effect, that renders their final league-phase fixture against PSV Eindhoven entirely obsolete.

There is no real difference to being seeded first or second for the knockout rounds. Either way, they will play their last-16 tie against one of the teams who finish 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the league.

Currently, those positions are occupied by Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus and Celtic.

The pre-determined draw also means Liverpool are guaranteed to avoid facing whichever other team finishes first or second (currently Barcelona) until the final.

Champions League knockout bracket
Arsenal (3rd)

Final league-phase fixture: Girona (A)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Atalanta 0-0 (D) A
PSG 2-0 (W) H
Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 (W) H
Inter Milan 1-0 (L) A
Sporting 1-5 (W) A
Monaco 3-0 (W) H
Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 (W) H

Arsenal travel to Girona on Wednesday in the knowledge that it will take something extraordinary to prevent them progressing straight to the last 16.

With 16 points, Mikel Arteta’s side are three clear of the playoffs and have a goal difference (+12) far superior to any of the six teams who have 13 points.

For them, it is about trying to finish as high in the top eight as possible to gain a better seeding for the knockout phase.

A win in Spain could take them above Barcelona to finish second in the table, which would put them alongside Liverpool in the seedings and in line to face one of the teams who finish 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Barring a huge swing in goal difference, they are unlikely to finish lower than seventh, a position that would give them a last-16 tie against a team ranked ninth, 10th, 23rd or 24th.

Should they remain exactly where they currently are, in third place, their potential last-16 opponents would be Brest, Borussia Dortmund, PSV Eindhoven or Club Brugge.

Of course, there remains a minuscule chance that they suffer such a heavy defeat in Girona and so many other results go against them that they would need to navigate the playoffs. But that is incredibly unlikely.

In fact, here is everything that would need to happen:
- Arsenal lose at Girona
- Inter Milan beat Monaco or draw, OR Monaco win and make up a goal difference of nine to Arsenal
- Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg
- AC Milan beat Dinamo Zagreb
- Atalanta beat Barcelona
- Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Prague and make up a goal difference of six to Arsenal
- One of Villa/Feyenoord/Lille/Brest win and make up a goal difference of 7-10 dependent on the team winning

Aston Villa (9th)

Final league-phase fixture: Celtic (H)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Young Boys 0-3 (W) A
Bayern Munich 1-0 (W) H
Bologna 2-0 (W) H
Club Brugge 1-0 (L) A
Juventus 0-0 (D) H
RB Leipzig 2-3 (W) A
Monaco 1-0 (L) A

Defeat against Monaco last week put a dent in Aston Villa’s hopes of heading straight through to the round of 16.

The good news is that they are guaranteed at least a place in the playoffs, as they cannot drop out of the top 24.

Who they would play in that scenario would depend on how high they finish.

If they advance in their current position of ninth, or 10th, they would face one of the lowest-ranked sides, in 23rd or 24th, currently Sporting and Stuttgart.

The task would become tougher the further down the table they drop – and, in theory, they could slip as far as 24th, although that is highly unlikely.

Conversely, beating Celtic would give them a good chance of making the last 16 directly, so long as they better the result of one of the five teams above them.

That would see them finish somewhere between fourth and eighth, potentially setting up a last-16 tie against Brest, Borussia Dortmund, PSV or Club Brugge, although there are a plethora of permutations.

Manchester City (25th)

Final league-phase fixture: Club Brugge (H)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Inter Milan 0-0 (D) H
Slovan Bratislava 0-4 (W) A
Sparta Prague 5-0 (W) H
Sporting 4-1 (L) A
Feyenoord 3-3 (D) H
Juventus 2-0 (L) A
PSG 4-2 (L) A

The situation for Man City is simple: they must beat Club Brugge on Wednesday to stay in the competition.

Pep Guardiola’s side are currently 25th, two points adrift of the playoff places, and they cannot reach the last 16 automatically.

Mathematically, the highest they can finish is 19th, which would set up a playoff match against 13th or 14th, currently Brest or Dortmund.

A draw or a loss on Wednesday would spell the end of their involvement.

Europa League

The stakes in the final Europa League matches on Thursday at 20:00 GMT are identical to that of the Champions League.

The top eight teams will head straight into the last 16 on 6 and 13 March, while the teams placed ninth to 24th face a two-legged playoff on 13 and 20 February.

Manchester United (4th)

Final league-phase fixture: FCSB (A)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Twente 1-1 (D) H
Porto 3-3 (D) A
Fenerbahce 1-1 (D) A
PAOK 2-0 (W) H
Bodo/Glimt 3-2 (W) H
Viktoria Plzen 1-2 (W) A
Rangers 2-1 (W) H

Bruno Fernandes’s late goal to see off Rangers last week has put Manchester United in with a strong chance of progressing straight through to last 16.

Sitting in fourth place with 15 points, Ruben Amorim’s side have a two-point gap above the playoff places, meaning a draw at Romanian team FCSB could be enough to secure a top-eight spot, depending on results elsewhere.

Victory would guarantee them a place in the last 16 and they could finish as high as second, which would provide joint-top seeding.

If they remain in fourth place, their potential last-16 opponents would currently be Rangers, AZ, Midtjylland or Elfsborg.

Tottenham Hotspur (6th)

Final league-phase fixture: IF Elfsborg (H)

Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Qarabag 3-0 (W) H
Ferencvaros 1-2 (W) A
AZ 1-0 (W) H
Galatasaray 2-3 (L) A
Roma 2-2 (D) H
Rangers 1-1 (D) A
Hoffenheim 2-3 (W) A

Just one point behind Man Utd, the situation is similar for Spurs, who know a win against Elfsborg would ensure last-16 football.

Like United, they could feasibly finish as high as second in the table depending on results elsewhere on Thursday.

A draw might also be enough to keep them in the top eight and circumnavigate the playoffs, while defeat would take matters firmly out of their own hands.

The lowest Spurs could finish is 15th, but while a spot in the playoffs is guaranteed, Ange Postecoglou will be desperate to avoid the strain of additional fixtures on his threadbare squad.

Should they advance in their current position of sixth, their last-16 opponents as it stands would be Viktoria Plzen, Olympiakos, Roma or Ferencvaros. But that could all change on Thursday.

UEFA Conference League
Chelsea (1st)
Results
Opponent Result Home/away
Gent 4-2 (W) H
Panathinaikos 1-4 (W) A
Noah 8-0 (W) H
Heidenheim 0-2 (W) A
Astana 1-3 (W) A
Shamrock Rovers 5-1 (W) H

The league phase of the Conference League required teams to play six, rather than eight, matches.

By winning all six of their matches, Chelsea secured top seeding for the round of 16 so will not return to European duties for some time.

They will face either the winner of Gent v Real Betis or Copenhagen v Heidenheim in the last 16 on 6 and 13 March.

The Conference League playoff fixtures will take place on February 13 and 20.

A bonus Champions League spot?

While the seven Premier League sides are all fighting to prolong their involvement in European competition, they are also battling on behalf of their domestic rivals to earn an extra place in Europe for English clubs next season.

The expansion of the Champions League for the 2024/25 season meant four additional places were created in the competition.

Two of those are awarded according to the European Performance Spots, which are awarded to the top two nations with the best collective performance by their clubs in the previous season’s UEFA club competitions.

This season, Bologna and Borussia Dortmund benefited from Italy and Germany topping the 2023/24 chart.

Currently, England and Italy are leading the way in this year’s UEFA competition standings.

Should all seven English clubs progress to the knockout phases of their respective competitions it would make it highly likely that the Premier League will receive an extra UEFA Champions League spot for next season.

That would mean this year’s Premier League top five clubs all playing in Europe’s leading competition next season, with three others qualifying for the Europa League and Conference League.

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