Analysis: Where Arsenal v Man City will be won and lost

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 24.

Teams analysis: Arsenal v Manchester City

Arsenal versus Manchester City may not be a match between the current top two this time around, but the outcome of Sunday’s mammoth fixture up could still have a major say on the outcome of this season’s title race.  

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What should we look out for tactically when they collide in north London? Here are some pre-match insights… 

How will new signing Marmoush test the Gunners? 

Omar Marmoush caught the eye on his Man City debut last weekend, offering a consistent threat from an inverted left-wing position.  

After scoring 19 goals in 22 starts for Eintracht Frankfurt, Marmoush is full of confidence and his duel with Arsenal right-back Jurrien Timber is one to keep a close eye on.

With Arsenal's right-sided central defender William Saliba likely to man-mark Erling Haaland, Timber must constantly be aware of Marmoush’s desire to make darting runs inside him.  

Marmoush is a natural striker who wants to join in as a second centre-forward for Pep Guardiola’s side.

This pattern of play, as shown below, was one of three offside calls that went against Marmoush, but it indicates the kind of movements the Egyptian likes to make.

This arced run put him clear, albeit from an offside position, but those type of runs can also be used as a decoy.  

When Man City look to switch the point of their attack from right to left at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal’s right-winger – possibly Gabriel Martinelli – will need to track Josko Gvardiol’s forays forward from left-back.  

Here, Marmoush’s sprint inside opened up room for the switch quite brilliantly. 

Timber is quick, but so too is Marmoush, who was clocked at a top speed of 33.61km/h against Chelsea.  

This ranked him City’s second fastest player on the day behind their rapid stand-in right-back Matheus Nunes on 35.55km/h.  

Despite being replaced after 75 minutes, Marmoush made more runs that were targeted by a pass than any other Man City player. We can expect him to make lots of off-the-ball runs to try and impact Sunday's contest at Arsenal.

Marmoush's strong start with Man City

How will Arsenal handle City’s tactical tweaks? 

There will be pros and cons for Man City should Guardiola replicate a tactical change he made in their 3-1 win against Chelsea last time out.

In essence, the Man City boss set his side up as a 2-3-5 in possession, using his full-backs as the highest, widest players, and the two wingers, Marmoush and Phil Foden, slipped inside closer to Haaland.  

The frame below is an example of that shape, with two of the three central midfielders - Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic - dropping between the centre-backs, Manuel Akanji and Abdukodir Khusanov, to offer a degree of protection.

One positive from playing in this manner is that it makes it harder to double up on Haaland. 

Chelsea wanted to do that, but found themselves having to drag one of their wide forwards back to mark Gvardiol or Nunes, with the full-back on their inside tucking in.  

Foden and Marmoush’s narrow positioning created 3v3 situations, which left no spare central defender.  

Arsenal could follow that lead, or an alternative way to cope would be dropping a central midfielder such as Thomas Partey into a deeper role.  

Man City's tactic worked against Chelsea, who encountered worrying 1v1s with Haaland throughout the final 70 minutes of that match; the Norwegian scored twice from those situations.  

There is a downside to this ploy, and that is Arsenal regaining the ball and springing quick transitions that leave Kovacic exposed in Man City's midfield. 

Cole Palmer really should have scored for Chelsea from the turnover shown below, which came from the same passage of play as the previous image above.  

With both central defenders split and the full-backs positioned very wide, Kovacic’s lack of speed was problematic for them down the spine.  

If Arsenal create similar scenarios, they may look to release somebody like Martinelli into that inviting space beyond the last man.  

How City use their full-backs like wingers 

In this tactical framework, City’s full-backs will often find themselves in very advanced positions.  

We saw that last Sunday when right-back Nunes ran onto Ilkay Gundogan’s pass, before left-back Gvardiol gobbled up the rebound to score their equalising goal.  

These diagonal runs must be followed intently by Arsenal's players.

Will Arsenal press high and leave Haaland 1v1? 

Ederson’s distribution is a weapon that Man City are very good at utilising, and his long-range passing played a huge part in their win against Chelsea.  

Set up in a way that meant Haaland was not "double marked", they profited from passes that went directly from back to front.  

Arsenal are an outstanding pressing side under Mikel Arteta, so their natural urge will be to close down aggressively from the front.  

In Gabriel and Saliba, they do have defenders capable of matching Haaland's power and strength.  

In the below incident from last season’s 1-0 win for Arsenal in north London, Haaland bounced off Saliba when Man City played through the press to isolate him 1v1 with the Frenchman.

Chelsea paid a price for squeezing up last Sunday though, with Haaland and supporting runners causing them many problems from Ederson’s long passes.  

In this image below, you can see Chelsea have marked Man City's players tightly, man-for-man, all over the pitch, but one long pass enabled Haaland to run through...

...and produce a wonderful finish to score City's second goal.

For Man City’s third goal, another direct attack bypassed the press. Ederson clipped a pass to Kevin De Bruyne, who flicked on to Haaland, and the Norwegian held the ball up before releasing Foden as the third-man runner.  

City will want to devise ways of creating these 3v3s when Arteta’s men press them.  

To avoid a repeat, Arsenal must press better than Chelsea or be more selective around the moments they choose to get tight to City’s players.  

How well they do this could determine the outcome of the match.

Could fast breaks be Arsenal’s surprise weapon? 

Arsenal have had the highest share of possession in 17 of their 23 Premier League matches this season, as they have placed a heavy emphasis on control.  

This has limited opportunities for them to counter-attack their opponents; a quality which they have used to great effect under Arteta in the past.  

Remarkably, the Gunners have attempted only 13 shots from fast breaks this season, 31 fewer than leaders Liverpool.  

Most of the teams currently in the Premier League's top seven places create plenty of opportunities on the break, leaving Arsenal as the exception among the leading pack.

Shots from fast breaks 24/25

A match against Man City may give Arsenal more chances than usual to strike in this way.  

And Arteta's men are very efficient from those breakaways.

Despite the rarity of them, only four teams have scored more goals from fast breaks than Arsenal's four - Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with 10 each, Wolverhampton Wanderers with seven and Chelsea on six.

Kai Havertz may not be the quickest forward, but his excellent goal on the transition from a Leandro Trossard pass in November's 5-2 win at West Ham United is a prime example of what they may try to replicate this weekend. 

Havertz's goal v West Ham

Man City have been vulnerable to transitions and counter-attacks ever since midfield linchpin Rodri was injured in Matchweek 5 (MW5).  

They had faced only three shots from fast breaks before losing Rodri, but have faced a division-high 25 in the matches since then.  

Shots faced from fast breaks since MW6

Guardiola’s men have conceded 59 big chances this season, the fifth-most in the division, so Arsenal - who have conceded the fewest, 21 - can feel confident about creating good-quality opportunities on Sunday.  

Counter-attacks could be a great avenue for them in this crucial encounter.