Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will newly-direct Man City break open this cagey fixture?
- Can Brighton's style help Forest recover?
- Iraola’s hard-pressing football to claim another big scalp?
- Are Newcastle slowing down or was Bournemouth just a blip?
- Can Villa’s set-pieces help them through sticky patch?
- Can Everton or Leicester build on huge wins last weekend?
- Will Brentford give Spurs a chance at redemption?
- Can Crystal Palace deny Man Utd revival?
- Will Chelsea race out the blocks and recover their form?
- Can Ipswich take this golden chance to restore some belief?
Will newly-direct Man City break open this cagey fixture?
Following on from a week in which Pep Guardiola had mused upon modern football being “not positional, you have to ride the rhythm,” Saturday’s 3-1 victory over Chelsea might have been the start of a new tactical project.
Manchester City pumped longer passes forward whenever possible, hitting the arcing runs of Omar Marmoush and Erling Haaland (playing in similar positions centrally) as well as the runs from out to in from both full-backs.
It worked - leading to all three City goals - because Chelsea’s midblock left space in behind while failing to press the Man City midfielders.
Time will tell if it points to a new tactical direction for Guardiola, although surely he will give similar instructions for the visit to Arsenal, because over the last couple of years this fixture has become increasingly stodgy, almost resembling a Jose Mourinho-Rafa Benitez match in last season’s 0-0 and 1-0 encounters.
Arsenal will sit in, cautiously pressing in select moments but allowing the game to become locked into a holding pattern - that is unless Marmoush and Haaland are used as battering rams again.
Can Brighton's style help Forest recover?
The 5-0 defeat at AFC Bournemouth last weekend could be a turning point in Nottingham Forest’s season, which is why Saturday’s match is now their biggest of the campaign.
Recover instantly, and what happened at Vitality Stadium can be dismissed as an anomaly, but slip up again and Forest could find themselves on the slide.
The former is more likely, thanks to a tactical style clash that should favour the hosts.
Brighton & Hove Albion have long had issues breaking down a low block. They have won only one of their nine Premier League matches this season in which they have held more than 55 per cent possession, yet have won six - and lost none - of their nine matches holding less than 50 per cent.
Brighton's record based on possession 24/25
| Brighton | Record | Points per game |
|---|---|---|
| With +55% possession | W1 D4 L4 | 1.29 |
| With -49% possession | W6 D3 L0 | 2.33 |
Forest, of course, will force Brighton to dominate possession and invite the visitors to break them down - just as Everton did last weekend, when David Moyes’s side won 1-0 despite taking three shots to Brighton’s 16, and holding 31 per cent possession to their 69 per cent.
Recent history tells us Forest can get back to winning ways. Brighton have won only two of their last 11 matches, while Forest have won six of their last eight at home.
The Bournemouth result was probably just a blip. We will know for sure by Saturday evening.
Iraola’s hard-pressing football to claim another big scalp?
It should be a brilliant and unpredictable match at Bournemouth this weekend.
The Cherries and Liverpool account for two of the three longest ongoing unbeaten runs in the Premier League with 11 and 18 respectively, and with Bournemouth scoring nine goals in their last two matches - and the Reds netting a division-high 54 goals this season - the attacking quality on show should be very high.
What’s more, the two sides to have the most shots following a high turnover in the Premier League this season are Bournemouth and Liverpool, with 45 and 40 respectively.
They will charge at each other at full tilt, potentially cracking open an end-to-end encounter.
But perhaps not. Arne Slot’s time at Liverpool has been all about controlling the tempo and slowing things down when necessary. He may have concocted a plan to lull Bournemouth into a calmer game.
In the build-up to this match a lot has been made of Bournemouth’s recent record against the big clubs, having already beaten Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham Hotspur on this ground. But that doesn’t really tell the whole story.
Arsenal were down to 10 men within half an hour, while both Man City and Spurs were faced at their lowest ebbs.
Liverpool, lest we forget, beat Iraola’s side 3-0 at Anfield earlier this season. They remain the more controlled and talented side.
But if the league leaders are slowing down, as some January performances have hinted, then Bournemouth’s fiery pressing could harass them into submission.
Bournemouth's defensive stats 24/25
| Statistic | Total | PL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Passes per defensive action* | 10.3 | 3rd |
| High turnovers | 134 | 1st |
| Recoveries | 1,303 | 1st |
* PPDA - an analytics metric that measures how many opposition passes a team allows before performing a defensive action
Are Newcastle slowing down or was Bournemouth just a blip?
Newcastle United are in great form. They have won seven of their last eight Premier League matches, earning 21 points in that time, more than anyone else.
But there’s an important caveat to this. The 4-1 defeat to Bournemouth a fortnight ago was a worrying moment for Eddie Howe, who, having picked a consistent XI for some time now, witnessed a jaded performance at St James' Park.
Then, last weekend, they went 1-0 behind at Southampton, and although they managed to turn things around, there is little to be learnt from beating the side with the lowest-ever points tally at this stage of a Premier League season.
In other words, the real test of whether Newcastle are fatigued comes this weekend - and they will need serious speed and energy to break down Fulham.
Fulham have faced the fourth-fewest shots in the division, with 250, and have the fourth-best Expected Goals Against (xGA) figure of 27.16, behind only Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest.
Marco Silva’s side, who also beat Newcastle 3-1 in the reverse fixture, currently have their highest points-per-game average for away Premier League matches with 1.45, and only conceded four shots in total against Manchester United last Sunday.
They are a very tough nut to crack.
Can Villa’s set-pieces help them through sticky patch?
Villa are stuttering, a 1-1 home draw with West Ham United last weekend was just the latest example of Unai Emery’s side falling short in matches they would expect to win. Had they beaten Brighton, Crystal Palace, and West Ham at Villa Park - all draws - they would now be fourth.
From this position, they certainly cannot afford to drop points against relegation candidates, and in fairness they rarely do. Villa are yet to lose a Premier League match under Emery against a side starting the day in the bottom three, having won 13 and drawn five of their 18 matches.
Fortunately for Villa, they have a clear advantage over Wolverhampton Wanderers at set-pieces.
Wolves have conceded 19 set-piece goals this season, more than any other Premier League side, whereas Villa rank second for set-piece goals and set-piece Expected Goals (xG), with nine and 9.97 respectively.
Villa also rank third-highest of their total goals being scored from set-pieces, with 27.27 per cent coming this way.
Set-piece coach Austin McPhee could be the most important Villa staff member this week.
Can Everton or Leicester build on huge wins last weekend?
This is an unusual six-pointer at the bottom of the Premier League table in that Everton and Leicester City picked up wins last weekend, meaning both managers will anticipate building some momentum against a fellow struggler.
Something’s got to give. Leicester have been porous under Ruud van Nistelrooy, yet Everton are the division’s second-lowest scorers, with 19; Moyes has renewed the defence-first approach, yet Bilal El Khannouss has come to the fore to improve Leicester’s attack.
Victory is more urgent for the visitors. For starters, Everton’s successive wins has put them seven points clear of the bottom three.
But more importantly, Leicester have tough matches ahead. After Saturday, only one of their next nine Premier League games is against a side in the current bottom eight.
Points could be hard to come by after this.
Will Brentford give Spurs a chance at redemption?
The instinctive prediction for this one, considering Spurs have lost six of their last seven matches and Brentford are winless in four home encounters, is to suggest that the away side will be perfect for the Bees to end their losing run.
But Brentford are just as vulnerable, and all we can say with confidence is that this match will be a lot of fun.
Brentford have not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 home matches and have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five Premier League outings at the Gtech Community Stadium.
They are increasingly porous, and certainly - like Spurs - almost always take part in end-to-end, high-scoring games: Spurs and Brentford are two of three teams, along with Wolves, whose matches have seen 80+ goals in the Premier League this season (83 for Spurs, 82 for Brentford).
Spurs should enjoy a wide-open Brentford set-up, although of course their defensive injuries may leave them exposed to Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa.
There will be goals. But beyond that, anything could happen.
Can Crystal Palace deny Man Utd revival?
Palace have won five of their last 11 Premier League matches against Man Utd and lost only three, which includes winning three of their last five games at Old Trafford.
They are undoubtedly United’s bogey team, and although the sides drew 0-0 in the reverse fixture, Man Utd haven’t scored a goal against Palace in their last three attempts.
If anyone is going to stop this mini-revival, it’s Oliver Glasner’s side.
Ruben Amorim is looking for successive Premier League wins for the first time as Man Utd head coach in his 13th match in charge. The last United manager to have as long a wait for back to-back league wins from the start of their reign was Tommy Docherty in 1972/73.
But these incessant references to 20th century record lows might not go on for much longer, because Amorim - almost without anyone noticing - has built a run of form, stringing wins together in multiple competitions to gradually build some self-belief.
That could all end on Sunday, however. Palace have won four of their last five away Premier League matches. They will have no fear at Old Trafford. They never do.
Will Chelsea race out the blocks and recover their form?
Chelsea are stuttering, and after defeat to Man City last weekend left them in sixth, they need to find a way to restart their season.
The key on Monday evening is to start quickly. West Ham have conceded nine Premier League goals in the opening 10 minutes of matches this season, two more than any other side, while Chelsea have scored five goals in the first 10, the second-most in the division.
The visitors have improved under Graham Potter, but their more possession-based, high-pressing approach inevitably leaves holes during this period of transition.
It is not necessarily a good sign, in preparation for a tough derby at Chelsea, that only Man City, with 37, have forced more high turnovers than West Ham's 33 since Potter’s arrival.
If Chelsea race out of the blocks they can surely outmanoeuvre the West Ham press, grab the early goal, and settle down any nerves. A place in the UEFA Champions League next season depends upon winning matches like these.
Can Ipswich take this golden chance to restore some belief?
Everybody sees their home games against Southampton as must-wins, but it’s especially true for clubs near the bottom.
Ipswich Town could really do with a win. They have lost each of their last three in a row, and worse still, conceded 10 goals in two matches against Man City and Liverpool.
Those two might have been free hits, but the way Ipswich’s defence collapsed could have an impact on morale.
Kieran McKenna’s side have won one match at Portman Road all season. They simply have to make it two this weekend.
Anything less could leave them with a mountain to climb.
