Analysis: Will reuniting with Potter get the best out of Ferguson?

Football writer Adrian Clarke says Evan Ferguson's move to West Ham United is a perfect fit for both the player and the club as he assesses the striker's strengths and style.

Player analysis: Evan Ferguson (West Ham United)

Ferguson’s loan move to West Ham feels like a perfect fit for both the player and club.

Once talked about in the same breath as players such as Harry Kane and Alan Shearer - regarded by some as a £100million player in the making - the 20-year-old arrives in east London having scored only one Premier League goal in the last 14 months.

That return is a far cry from 2023, when Ferguson equalled Wayne Rooney’s record of 11 top-flight goals in a calendar year, the joint-most scored by a teenager in the competition.

Plagued by injuries, but also a loss of form, the Republic of Ireland international is hoping West Ham can help him rediscover that outstanding potential.

Without the injured Nicklas Fullkrug, Michail Antonio and Crysencio Summerville, it made sense for head coach Graham Potter to give Ferguson that chance, especially having given him his debut at Brighton & Hove Albion in 2021.

What are Ferguson’s core strengths?

Ferguson is a natural centre-forward who has shown he can finish with technical excellence.

One of his strongest traits is the side-footed finish.

Last season he despatched a trio of superbly accurate strikes in that manner to score against Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Newcastle United.

Ferguson has made a habit of executing crisp curlers into the bottom corner with his right or left foot as he has shown how comfortable he striking the ball with either foot.

He scored a sensational side-footer as part of his hat-trick against Newcastle in September 2023, when he became the fourth teenager aged 18 or younger to register a Premier League treble.

Ferguson’s only top-flight goal so far in 2024/25 was of a similar ilk, generating great power with the cleanest of right-footed shots at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Ferguson's goal v Wolves

There is a pattern in terms of the way he scores his goals when analysing his work around the penalty area.

West Ham's loanee is a master at keeping his shots low and firm, and is usually calm when chances fall his way.

Only one of his 13 Premier League strikes has been with an elevated finish, and that was from an instinctive close-range volley against Everton.

Every other goal has seen Ferguson strike the ball low and hard into the back of the net.

What is his style?

Ferguson is a relatively low-touch player, who does most of his best work inside the opposition box.

He is not especially combative, winning 31.25 per cent of his duels this season, and only 30.77 per cent of his aerial duels.

At Brighton his 36.99 touches per 90 minutes is the second-lowest under Fabian Hurzeler, and only two players make fewer than his 16.4 successful passes per 90.

However, Ferguson is excellent at drifting off central defenders, occupying spaces between the lines, and from those situations he wants to receive a pass before manufacturing a shot on goal.

The Hammers can also expect him to stay central when they build up play, with Ferguson rarely making channel runs.

This heat map below represents his entire Premier League career - and it highlights how Ferguson takes up positions down the middle of the pitch.

How do Ferguson’s stats look?

It is hard to judge Ferguson’s form too much based on a lack of regular game time in 2024/25, featuring for only 236 minutes.

What we do know is that he can rack up a lot of shots on target, producing an impressive 1.61 per 90 minutes two seasons ago when he first burst onto the scene.

At that time he consistently asked questions of opposition goalkeepers, and was among the division’s most dangerous front men.

2022/23 forwards' shots on target per 90 mins

*Minimum six goals scored

In the following season he scored the same number of goals, but at a slower rate.

Firing off less efforts, dropping from 3.41 shots per 90 to 2.18, Ferguson’s conversion rate did still improve.

This season, with his confidence impacted by injury issues and a lack of starts, his accuracy levels have dipped.

West Ham will be hoping the boost associated with this move, brings him back to his best.

Ferguson's shooting stats last three seasons

How will he fit in at West Ham?

The Hammers are crying out for a clinical centre-forward, so I would expect Potter to use Ferguson a lot in the coming weeks and months.

If he goes straight into their starting XI in the current 3-4-2-1 formation, this is how West Ham United may look...

Once the players fully adjust to his methods and Potter feels confident about adopting a more attacking strategy, he could switch to a bold 4-2-3-1 with Ferguson as the spearhead of the attack.

This is how that XI might look...

In either of these sides, Ferguson should receive plenty of service.

Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta are their most creative talents, with 39 and 23 key passes respectively, but team-mates Mohammed Kudus and Summerville will also supply plenty of ammunition.

Is this the end of their long-running striker search?

It feels as if West Ham have been trying to bring in a centre-forward to compete with Antonio for the last seven-and-a-half years.

Since the summer of 2017 they have reportedly spent around £192m on an array of strikers, with none of them fully establishing themselves at the club.

We saw flashes of promise from Sebastien Haller and Gianluca Scamacca, but neither man cemented their place in the team.

The best goal-to-game ratio came from Marko Arnautovic who scored roughly one goal every three matches, but he was often used out wide.

None of the centre-forward recruits have been a success.

West Ham strikers signed stats since 2017

*Stats so far. Ings and Fullkrug signed in January 2023 and August 2024 respectively

As this is a loan, there is less risk attached to Ferguson’s arrival and West Ham should benefit from plenty of upside.

He is a hungry young talent, eager to restore his reputation as one of the brightest prospects in European football, and Potter will give him a platform to shine.

Do not expect a lot of input from the Irishman outside the final third, but if the service is right, he has the ability and technique to deliver goals.

Playing for a head coach that knows and trusts him, Ferguson could settle in quickly.

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