Football writer Alex Keble analyses Tottenham Hotspur's 1-0 win over Manchester United which secured their first home victory since November.
While it may not go down as a match that ranks among the classic encounters between the two sides, it could be one that we look back upon as the start of something significant for both clubs.
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Tottenham Hotspur are leaving an injury crisis just as Manchester United are entering theirs and, on the evidence of the first half in particular, that means Spurs are ready to shoot up the table and United, if it’s even possible, falling deeper into trouble.
Spurs rejuvenated by return of star players
Ange Postecoglou has for a long time insisted Spurs’ poor form was the direct consequence of their long injury list and, for 45 minutes at least, there was vindication.
“We’ve hardly trained the last few months,” Postecoglou said after the match. “This week all of sudden we’ve had 20 senior fit players, which gives everyone a boost.
“Training’s a bit more energetic, a bit more up-tempo. The players and the coaches all respond to that.”
Sure enough, Spurs began with purpose and energy, harassing Man Utd into a low block for long periods of the match and pressing more effectively than we’ve seen in some time.
They won possession eight times in the final third, their fourth-highest figure in the Premier League this season and the most since beating Aston Villa 4-1 on 3 November, incidentally their last home win.
Key: Green - successful pass, yellow - chance created, blue - assist, red - failed pass
James Maddison, scorer of the winning goal, was lively (as seen, most obviously, in reacting first to poke in from close range), while Guglielmo Vicario made several impressive saves.
These two symbolised the value of having first-team regulars fully fit and trained up through the week.
It brought genuine hope that a revival is coming.
Man Utd’s midfield issues made worse by injuries
Just as Spurs’ luck is turning one way, United’s is going the other.
Ruben Amorim had eight teenagers on the bench, meaning he had to put square pegs in round holes, including fielding Joshua Zirkzee as an inside forward on the same flank as Bruno Fernandes.
It was a big problem. Amorim’s 3-4-3 formation frequently leaves the two central midfielders with too much work to do, and it was no surprise Casemiro and Fernandes lacked the energy to cope, especially without the legs of Kobbie Mainoo or Amad in front of them.
Over and over again in the first half, Djed Spence (inverting from left-back), Maddison and Son Heung-min overworked an isolated Fernandes, who was dragged across to leave Casemiro helpless in the middle.
This total mismatch in midfield is what allowed Spurs to dominate the ball and pin Man Utd back in the first half, when Maddison and Lucas Bergvall gracefully controlled the wide-open spaces, leading indirectly to the winning goal.
The respective "team average position" graphics below highlight the difference between the two midfields.
One was relatively organised, the other – already struggling in Amorim’s system, and now ravaged by injury – shows huge gaps either side of the narrow midfield pair.
Amorim’s injury issues also create a blunt attack
“There’s definitely empathy there [with Amorim’s position],” Postecoglou said after the match.
“Welcome to my world. But that’s for one game. Do that for two months.”
They’re about to.
Amad – who has scored or assisted eight of United’s 16 league goals under Amorim (50 pr cent) - is expected to miss the rest of the season, leaving United reliant upon Alejandro Garnacho, a forward they were open to selling in January, and Zirkzee.
Man Utd amassed an Expected Goals (xG) of 1.54 in this match but it felt higher, with Garnacho blazing one shot over the crossbar from 10 yards and Zirkzee missing two good chances.
We shouldn’t have been particularly surprised by either player.
Zirkzee only scored 13 goals in 37 Serie A matches for Atalanta, while Garnacho has the lowest conversion rate of big chances (situations where the player is expected to score) of any Premier League player to have had 10 or more big chances this season, with 14 per cent.
United were always likely to draw a blank, then, following a trend that could be about to get worse.
They have failed to score in 10 of their 25 Premier League matches, the second-most behind Everton (12), and have lost 12 of their 25 league contests, their most at this stage of a league campaign since 1973/74, when they were relegated.
The situation was bad enough before these fresh injury concerns. But now Amorim faces a fresh crisis, and one set to draw all the more focus as Spurs – after recording back-to-back wins – look to move out of theirs.
"I have a lot of problems. My job is so hard," Amorim told Sky Sports after the match.
While Amorim's first three months have proven immensely challenging, spring, without his star man Amad, looks set to provide an even sterner test of his coaching credentials.
