Football writer Alex Keble assesses Chelsea's recent decline in form and whether they can get back on track to salvage a place in the UEFA Champions League.
Chelsea’s decline has happened so quickly a lot of neutrals won’t even have noticed – or at least, not until the televised 3-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion last Friday.
They failed to hit a single shot on target at the Amex Stadium, where defeat – in what Enzo Maresca labelled Chelsea’s “worst performance of the season” - made it just nine points won from their last nine Premier League matches.
See: Maresca: Loss to Brighton is the worst performance since I arrived
A superb first half of the season (Chelsea were serious title challengers in late December, well ahead of schedule) means they remain just outside the Champions League spots and still on course for a strong debut campaign under Maresca.
But the recent stats threaten to drag them into troubled waters.
PL table after MW18 and MW25
| MW18 | Points | MW25 | Points |
| Liverpool | 42 | Liverpool | 61 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 35 | Arsenal | 53 |
| Nott'm Forest | 34 | Nott'm Forest | 47 |
| Arsenal | 33 | Man City | 44 |
| Newcastle | 29 | Bournemouth | 43 |
| Bournemouth | 29 | Chelsea | 43 |
If we exclude Chelsea’s UEFA Conference League form and focus just on domestic competitions, Maresca’s 46 per cent win percentage is actually just below Mauricio Pochettino’s 47 per cent at the same stage last season.
Pochettino ended the campaign with 63 Premier League points, averaging 1.66 per match. At Maresca’s current rate, of 1.72 per match, he is on course for 65 points.
What has caused the alarming decline, and will Chelsea come roaring back in the final third of the campaign?
Defensive instability and attacking decline
The statistics reveal two key points.
Defensively, all that’s really changed for Chelsea is an increase in errors made, reflecting their injury problems at the back and suggesting a bright future lies ahead when everyone is fit.
Offensively, Chelsea’s numbers are down sharply, which could be a simple case of form and injuries… or it could be a much larger tactical issue that we’ll come onto.
If we compare Chelsea’s first 16 Premier League matches (34 points won) to their last nine (nine points won), we can see that Chelsea are actually conceding fewer high-quality chances, but are letting in more goals due to defensive errors.
Chelsea's defensive stats compared 24/25
| Premier League per 90 mins | First 16 matches | Last nine matches |
| Goals conceded | 1.2 | 1.7 |
|---|---|---|
| Shots faced | 11.4 | 11.0 |
| xG against | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Errors leading to shots | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Errors leading to goal | 0.3 | 0.6 |
This might be due to uncertainty surrounding Robert Sanchez and Filip Jorgensen, as well as the disruption in central defence since Wesley Fofana’s injury in early December.
Since then, Chelsea have used five different centre-back partnerships across 12 Premier League matches.
In attack, the story is more complicated and the stats reveal that Chelsea are creating fewer chances and finishing them less effectively.
Chelsea's attacking stats 24/25
| Premier League per 90 mins | First 16 matches | Last nine matches |
| Goals | 2.3 | 1.1 |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Conversion rate | 14.5% | 6.4% |
| Big chances | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Big chance conversion | 36.7% | 25.4% |
One possible explanation for this is Nicolas Jackson’s waning form before his injury and a surprising downturn from Cole Palmer, who has looked a shadow of himself over the last couple of months.
Too reliant on Palmer
Palmer has now gone four Premier League matches without a goal involvement and across Chelsea’s tricky nine-match spell has amassed just three goals and no assists.
Over the first 16 matches of the campaign he scored or assisted 17 of Chelsea’s 36 goals, accounting for 47 per cent of their total.
It’s no surprise, then, that his decline – perfectly natural for a young player – has triggered Chelsea’s problems.
Interestingly, when we again split the season into pre-Chelsea and post-Chelsea decline, Palmer is continuing to create chances at a fairly consistent rate: 2.8 per match before, 2.5 per match since.
The eye test tells us Palmer isn’t playing as well – his touch isn’t as graceful, the magic isn’t there – but things might have looked better had Jackson been finishing the opportunities Palmer was making.
Jackson's Premier League attacking stats compared 24/25
| First 16 matches | Last nine matches | |
| Goals | 9 | 0 |
|---|---|---|
| Shots/90 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Shooting accuracy | 71.7% | 45.8% |
Palmer needs help from wingers not providing enough creativity while Chelsea clearly need a striker to help Jackson (or fill in while he’s injured), and then of course there is the inevitable downturn while Romeo Lavia is out.
But these are all surface level explanations. What’s happened to Chelsea might be a little more complicated than that.
Maresca’s tactics take hold
Throughout Chelsea’s title charge last Autumn, Maresca didn’t just play down his team’s chances of challenging Liverpool.
He also regularly made minor complaints about his team being too direct or struggling to follow his tactical instructions.
Indeed it was surprising to see Chelsea play fast-transitional football when Maresca’s Leicester City were renowned for a slow and patient possession game more akin to chess – Maresca’s other great love – than the flying attacking football on display at Stamford Bridge.
As the season has gone on, that has changed. Indeed over this nine-match tricky spell, Chelsea have become slower, more patient, and less open to fast breaks.
Chelsea's attacking football compared 24/25
| Premier League per 90 mins | First 16 matches | Last nine matches |
| Possession | 56.9% | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|
| Touches | 696.4 | 753.4 |
| Fast breaks | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Direct attacks | 3.1 | 1.8 |
The upside is an improved defence, because slow-moving passing ensures the team remains in a compact shape, ready to counter-press quickly and better at shutting down space.
Without an elongated pitch, teams can’t run through Chelsea so easily anymore.
Chelsea's defensive stats compared 24/25
| Premier League per 90 mins | First 16 matches | Last nine matches |
| Progressive passes allowed | 32.9 | 23.8 |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 8.3 | 6.3 |
| Through-balls allowed | 2.0 | 1.1 |
But it does appear to have taken away Palmer’s sharp edge. He revels in the big gaps between the lines, enjoying feeding Chelsea’s quick wingers as they burst into space and enjoying shooting in these situations, too.
Palmer has registered just one shot from a fast break across the last nine matches, compared to eight in the previous 16.
In fact, the whole team has congealed somewhat, with the low point – Friday’s defeat at Brighton – the best example yet: 70 per cent possession, zero shots on target.
How Chelsea can rediscover form
The solution, particularly in light of Chelsea having to find a way of playing without a centre-forward, is to return to transitional football starting on Saturday at Villa Park.
Assuming that Maresca settles on a centre-back partnership and Jorgensen becomes the new No 1, Chelsea’s primary concern is getting Palmer back in form and loosening the reins on the suffocating possession football.
Aston Villa are particularly vulnerable to being pulled into an end-to-end game.
Axel Disasi is ineligible to play while Boubacar Kamara is injured and Ezri Konsa remains a doubt, meaning Unai Emery only has one fit defender, Tyrone Mings, available for selection.
Whoever is picked alongside him, they will surely prefer a slower contest that allows them to sit deep and shuffle across, rather than a stretched game that forces them to turn and sprint backwards.
What’s more, with Marcus Rashford likely to start, Villa may be defensively light on the wings.
A transition-heavy game suits the pace and attacking quality of this Chelsea team.
Letting things go - and embracing a wilder contest – does not come natural to Maresca, but he must find a balance between his Pep Guardiola-inspired tactical principles and the transitional profile of the Chelsea squad.
The future of his Chelsea team depends upon it.
