Feature

Analysis: Why has Cole Palmer gone cold?

By Ninad Barbadikar 28 Feb 2025
PL2425-COLE-PALMER-GONE-COLD

Ninad Barbadikar examines why the Chelsea star's attacking output has dipped since his impressive first few months of the season

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Chelsea's 4-0 triumph against Southampton at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night was a great display of their attacking prowess, with Pedro Neto and Christopher Nkunku each grabbing a goal and an assist on the night.

However, it was yet another match that Cole Palmer failed to get involved among the goals.

In fact, it was the sixth consecutive Matchweek in which the 22-year-old has neither scored or assisted. This run has left him stuck on 14 goals and six assists, now in 27 appearances - he has started every Premier League match for Chelsea this season.

After a ground-breaking debut campaign with the Blues, when he scored 22 goals and assisted 11 in the Premier League, Palmer is experiencing a blip for the first time in his fledgling career.

So what’s wrong and how can he get back on track?

Palmer's dip in form

The England international found the back of the net in three of the five matches Enzo Maresca's side failed to win from 22 December to 14 January. So even when the team hasn’t always been at its best, Palmer has delivered.

Since that five-match winless run, Chelsea have lost three and won three in the league, with Palmer blanking across all of them. In that run of six matches without a goal contribution, he has had 23 shots without scoring and has created nine chances which haven’t been converted by his team-mates.

In fact, since he last scored or assisted in the league, the Chelsea star is the only player in the league to have more than 25 shots and chances created without a goal or assist. The effort is clearly there, so what is the problem?

What's changed?

Palmer’s 14 strikes this season have come from an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 12.91, translating to about 0.42 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes. That figure comes as a result of his extremely healthy shot volume across the season, averaging more than three shots per 90 from open play. Furthermore, he has averaged 1.38 shots on target per 90.

Palmer shooting stats before/after 15 Jan

Now looking more closely across the six-match run where he has blanked, the natural assumption would be that he’s shooting less. However, he has averaged a slightly higher shot volume than his season average (3.43), attempting 3.83 shots per 90 minutes. It is worth saying here that Nicolas Jackson’s long-term injury has had an effect too, given the Senegal international has struck up an exciting partnership with Palmer.

Though assists aren’t the be all and end all to Palmer’s creative game, his team-mates’ finishing has let him down of late. Since 4 December, he has created more than 32 chances, none of which have been converted.

Palmer's creativity stats before/after 2 Dec

In Jackson’s absence, Maresca has been forced to tweak the attack, moving around Nkunku and Neto as well as Palmer, who started more centrally against Brighton in Chelsea’s 3-0 defeat.

Attempting just two shots against the Seagulls, Palmer cut a frustrated figure in that central position, as he usually tends to thrive when drifting inside off the right flank.

Palmer's touch map before/after 2 Dec

As ever though, whenever he did drop to pick up the ball in deeper areas, Palmer's passing over Brighton’s defence proved vital for Chelsea to get the ball directly to the flanks. His increased involvement in Chelsea’s build-up sequences, similar to that of Martin Odegaard’s at Arsenal, is an interesting development in his game and worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.

Nobody can argue the Chelsea star isn’t doing enough, as he’s attempted seven shots in each of the matches against West Ham and Brighton. Naturally the desperation to put an end to the barren run increases with each goalless game, and more recently, since Maresca’s move to play Neto centrally, Palmer has looked better.

Moving from the channels to spaces inside between the opposition lines with ease, Palmer’s off-ball movement is beginning to shine through even more, with Chelsea’s attack now beginning to find its feet without Jackson up front.

What does Maresca say?

His head coach doesn’t seem too concerned by the dip in his star man’s output, though. The Italian tactician said: “I am always concerned about general performances, but not Cole, because Cole is a human being and always during a season he can have some moments where he struggles a little bit more.”

Palmer posted a message on Instagram to reassure fans and his team-mates that he “will be back.”

Why Palmer is still one of the best

It is difficult to argue against Maresca’s confidence, given just how excellent Palmer has been this season, despite being entrusted with more defensive responsibilities than last season.

The England international’s tally of 20 goal involvements this season is only bettered by four other players in the league - Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak and Chris Wood.

Every player is allowed a barren run or two every now and then and this is Palmer’s first. Last season, Palmer only went back-to-back games without scoring on two occasions, showing incredible levels of consistency for a player so young.

With teams always looking to double up on him to mark him out of the game, Palmer is still clearly one of the best players in the league. He is simply experiencing a dip just like any other star player has done across their career.

What are his upcoming fixtures?

Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures in league and Europe offer Palmer the opportunity to get back on track. The Blues face Copenhagen in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League round of 16 tie on Thursday 6 March, before hosting Leicester City in the Premier League.

Palmer has been registered in the Blues' squad for the knockout stages of the Conference League, having been left out of the squad for the league phase.

Following that are back-to-back London derbies against Arsenal and Spurs. With five goal involvements across five meetings against those teams since the start of last season, Palmer will be eager to resume normal service at the earliest possible opportunity.

Chelsea's next five Premier League matches

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